College Football DFS Week 5 – DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slate Value Plays
H2. College Football DFS Week 5 – DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slate Value Plays
Written by: Sean Zerillo
DraftKings and FanDuel will both feature main slates beginning at noon on Saturday. There are seven games in common between those noon slates, three games unique to DraftKings, and six games unique to FanDuel. Let’s evaluate some players who you can use to fill out your lineups before kickoff.
Note: There are a few key differences for roster construction purposes between DraftKings and FanDuel. While both sites provide for a lineup consisting of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, and a SuperFlex (includes QB), you must also fill a traditional Flex spot on DraftKings. FanDuel gives you $60,000 to fill seven roster slots ($8,571 per slot), and DraftKings gives you $50,000 to fill eight roster slots ($6,250 per slot). DraftKings is also a full point per reception, while FanDuel is 0.5 points per reception
12 PM Main Slate
Common Games
- West Virginia (-3.5) at Texas Tech, Total = 72.5
- Baylor at Oklahoma (-23.5), Total = 68.5
- Louisiana-Lafayette at Alabama (-49), Total = 68
- Syracuse at Clemson (-25), Total = 65.5
- Pittsburgh at Central Florida (-13), Total = 64.5
- Oklahoma State (-17) at Kansas, Total = 62
*Tennessee at Georgia (-31), Total = 53
DraftKings Only
- Arkansas at Texas A&M (-21), Total = 59.5
- Purdue (-3) at Nebraska, Total = 57.5
- Texas (-8.5) at Kansas State, Total = 49
FanDuel Only
- Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State, Total = 70
- Southern Miss at Auburn (-27), Total = 53.5
- Stanford at Notre Dame (-5.5), Total = 53
- Florida at Mississippi State (-7), Total = 50.5
- Michigan (-14.5) at Northwestern, Total = 47
- BYU at Washington (-17), Total = 46
H2. Quarterback
Bargain to Bank:
Trevor Lawrence ($8,500 DK; $9,000 FD) will get full snaps for the first time as Clemson’s starter and has no risk of being replaced now that Kelly Bryant has decided to transfer. Lawrence is the 10th most expensive Quarterback on DraftKings and the 16th most expensive Quarterback on FanDuel this week despite being as efficient this season on a per play basis as many of the highest priced Quarterbacks. Lawrence ranks 15th by our Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) metric, which adjusts for dropped interceptions and other events that are out of the Quarterback’s control. Lawrence has also generated nearly the same amount of fantasy points on a per attempt (combined rushing and passing) basis as QBs who are at least $1,000 more expensive than him on both sites.
Some hesitancy stems from the matchup against Syracuse, whose defense ranks 167th against the run (5.4 yards per attempt allowed) but 54th against the pass (74 IQR allowed). With an implied game score of 45-20 based upon the spread and total, Lawrence still looks set for 3-5 touchdowns, 25-35 fantasy points, and a price raise up to over $10,000 for the remainder of his collegiate career.
Studs to Pay Up For:
If you don’t go with Lawrence, this is a week to pay up for one of the high priced stars. Will Grier, McKenzie Milton, Kyler Murray, or Dwayne Haskins (FanDuel only) will each cost over $10,000 but all are in good matchups and project to score over 30 fantasy points. I will be building different lineups around each one, avoiding Tua who is likely to get pulled for Hurts early in another blowout victory. I expect Grier to be heavily owned as the most expensive QB on both sites and might lean to the others in tournaments.
Other Value:
Charlie Brewer ($5,900 DK; $9,100 FD) and Eric Dungey ($6,300 DK; $9,900 FD) are significant bargains on DraftKings considering their production to date; Brewer has two 20-point games and a 30-point game, while Dungey has two 40-point games. Both Quarterbacks are roughly three touchdown underdogs on the road and are expected to lead their own offenses to three touchdowns. One of these two will make their contest a closer game than it appears, and get involved in a shootout. I would lean towards Brewer, who ranks 18th in IQR and doesn’t have to scramble away from Clemson’s defensive line in Death Valley.
H2. Running Back
Bargain to Bank:
D’Andre Swift ($5,700 DK; $8,500 FD) took a stunning $1,700 haircut on DraftKings and is now the 15th most expensive back on DraftKings and the 16th most expensive on FanDuel. I have touted his backup, Elijah Holyfield, twice in this column as Holyfield has looked more explosive and has been getting roughly the same number of carries as Swift; but now the pendulum has swung so far that Holyfield is $500 more expensive than Swift on DraftKings. Swift was nursing a groin injury last week and still finished with two more carries than Holyfield, faces a poorly ranked rushing and passing defense in Tennessee, and remains the talent who ranked 10th in the nation in yards per attempt (7.6), and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (4.4) last season. He’s a fantastic value on DraftKings after the huge price dip in a game where Georgia should have six trips to the end zone.
Studs to Pay Up For:
Travis Etienne ($7,400 DK; $9,900 FD) ranks 10th amongst all runners in broken tackle rate (28%) and boasts an impressive 4.4 yards after contact per attempt after posting similar metrics last season (25% broken tackle rate and 4.7 yards after contact per attempt). Clemson should be running clock while playing with the lead and, as I mentioned earlier, Syracuse has been extremely weak against the run. Etienne has averaged 30 fantasy points in his last two games and should get into that range once again, especially with Lawrence’s deep passing presence opening up more running lanes.
Trey Sermon ($7,200 DK; $9,000 FD) has been mentioned here before. He received all 18 of Oklahoma’s running back carries against Army last week. Sermon ranks in the Top 20 in broken tackle rate after ranking 9th last season and finishing 11th in yards after contact per attempt. The two-touchdown, 30-point fantasy effort is coming soon, maybe this week.
J.K. Dobbins ($9,300 FD Only) has a chance to dominate touches against Penn State’s 78th ranked run defense if Mike Weber (foot sprain, questionable) is unable to play. Dobbins ranks 19th in broken tackle rate, and ranked 22nd last season in yards after contact per attempt.
Other Value:
Adrian Killins Jr. ($6,100 DK; $9,500 FD) is the 11th most expensive back on DraftKings but is 6th on FanDuel, making him a better value on the former. UCF’s Quarterback McKenzie Milton threw for three touchdowns and ran for three more last week, and Killins is poised to get back into the end zone after scoring ten touchdowns and averaging over two catches per game last season. He will face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 127th against the run (4.9 yards per attempt) and should be getting carries in the second half as the while the Knights protect a lead.
H2. Wide Receiver
Bargain to Bank:
Jalen Hurd ($5,600 DK; $9,000 FD) was a big-time NFL Running Back prospect for Tennessee who made the conscious decision to change positions to Wide Receiver in order to elongate his potential professional career. The transition has gone smoothly thus far, as Hurd (now at Baylor) has been the Bears leading receiver. The 220-pound athlete has done most of his damage out of the slot, where he’s recorded 20 of his 22 receptions and received 27 of his 34 targets, for a fantastic 11.3 yards per slot target. Prior to Week 1, I pointed out that the weak spot in Oklahoma’s passing defense last year was in the slot, as slot receivers recorded a 102 IQR against Oklahoma’s defense (149th). This season their defense ranks 84th, with an 89 IQR against slot receivers, and Hurd should have a positive game script in this matchup as Baylor tries to catch Oklahoma’s unstoppable offense. After receiving four rushing attempts last week and recording four receptions in every game, it’s clear that Baylor’s best playmaker will continue to be fed the ball by NFL coaching prospect Matt Rhule.
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