College Football DFS Week 7 – DraftKings and FanDuel Featured Noon Slate Value Plays
College Football DFS Week 7 – DraftKings and FanDuel Featured Noon Slate Value Plays
Written by: Sean Zerillo
There are eight games in common between the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) featured noon slates this Saturday, two games unique to DraftKings, and five games unique to FanDuel. Below you will find a guide of implied game scores based upon the betting lines and point totals.
Common Games
12 PM
• Minnesota (15) at Ohio State (45)
2:30
• Pittsburgh (16.5) at Notre Dame (37.5)
3:30 PM
•UCF (42.5) at Memphis (38)
• Baylor (23.5) at Texas (37.5)
• Michigan State (20) at Penn State (33.5)
• Washington (30.5) at Oregon (27.5)
• Texas A&M (27.5) at South Carolina (25.5)
• Georgia (29) at LSU (21.5)
DraftKings Only
12 PM
• Tennessee (16) at Auburn (31)
• Oklahoma State (34.5) at Kansas State (27)
FanDuel Only
12 PM
• Florida (28.5) at Vanderbilt (21.5)
7 PM
• Missouri (23) at Alabama (51)
• West Virginia (31.5) at Iowa State (25)
• Wisconsin (20) at Michigan (29.5)
• Miami (27) at Virginia (20.5)
Note: There are a few key differences for roster construction purposes between DraftKings and FanDuel. While both sites provide for a lineup consisting of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, and a SuperFlex (includes QB), you must also fill a traditional Flex spot on DraftKings. FanDuel gives you $60,000 to fill seven roster slots ($8,571 per slot), and DraftKings gives you $50,000 to fill eight roster slots ($6,250 per slot). DraftKings is also a full point per reception, while FanDuel is 0.5 points per reception
Quarterback
Bargain to Bank:
Charlie Brewer ($6,500 DK; $9,000 FD) has been one of the most consistently reliable DFS Quarterbacks this season, averaging 24 fantasy points per game. He should be throwing from behind against a Texas defense that ranks 57th with a 78.0 IQR Allowed (IQR stands for Independent Quarterback Rating, a metric which adjusts for dropped interceptions and other events that are out of the Quarterback’s control). Brewer is our 47th most efficient Quarterback (117 IQR), and he ranks 35th in on-target throw rate (79%). The athletic QB has also averaged 9 rushing attempts and over 20 rushing yards per game during his career. He has a high floor and solid upside in a potential Big 12 shootout against Texas.
Other Value:
Brian Lewerke ($6,300 DK; $8,100 FD) takes on a Penn State defense that ranks 56th with a 77.0 IQR allowed. Although he is 30th in on-target throw rate (80%), Lewerke is all the way down at 124th in IQR. He has averaged close to 18 fantasy points per game and has a high floor in this matchup, but his upside falls short of Brewer with Michigan State often deferring to their running game.
Jarrett Stidham ($6,000 DK Only) has taken a bit of a step back in his second season at Auburn; his on-target throw rate is down 2% while his yards per attempt has declined from 8.6 to 7 this season. However, he has a chance to have his best passing game of the year this weekend (at least, before traveling to Ole Miss next week) against a Tennessee defense that ranks 107th with a 92 IQR allowed.
Studs to Pay Up For:
Sam Ehlinger ($9,000 DK; $9,900 FD) saw his price rise by $1,600 on DraftKings and a $500 on FanDuel after rushing for 3 touchdowns in a 47 fantasy point effort against Oklahoma. He will get an even easier matchup this week against a Baylor defense that ranks 123rd in IQR, 173rd in rushing yards per attempt, and allowed 430 yards and 6 passing touchdowns to Kyler Murray on just 21 passing attempts.
Ian Book ($8,700 DK; $9,900 FD) has scored 43, 32, and 18 fantasy points in his three starts for Notre Dame, turning a lethargic offense under Brandon Wimbush into the of the nation’s most efficient units. In a short sample, Book has ranked 29th in IQR, 18th in on-target throw rate (82%) and 47th in yards per attempt (8.4). Penn State put up over 50 points in the rain at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago. I’d expect Notre Dame’s offense to surpass their implied team total and dominate the Panthers, who rank 87th against the pass.
McKenzie Milton ($10,400 DK, $10,200 FD) has been volatile while averaging 35 fantasy points per contest; his individual game totals have been 41, 12, 53, 49, and 20. Milton has a major advantage over the rest of the QB competition this week in playing in the game with by far the highest total. He threw for nearly 500 yards with 5 touchdowns and added 68 rushing yards in an up-tempo, 62-55 double overtime win against Memphis last season. I have full confidence in him getting back to 40 points this week.
Running Back
Bargain to Bank:
Keontay Ingram ($5,500 DK, $7,800 FD) appears to have finally taken over for Senior Tre Watson as the lead runner for Texas. Although he has 29 fewer carries than Watson on the season, Ingram has been far more efficient; averaging an additional 2.3 yards per attempt and .8 yards after contact per attempt. Over the past two weeks, he leads Watson 23-13 in carries and 6-3 in targets. As I mentioned in the section under Sam Ehlinger, Baylor has one of the worst rushing defenses in the country on a yards per attempt basis – but they also rank 170th with 11 rushing touchdowns allowed and 164th in yards after contact per attempt. The freshman, Ingram, is poised to have a true breakout game.
Other Value:
Justice Hill ($6,900 DK Only) sees a stark $1,600 price drop after one subpar game (14 fantasy points) against Iowa State. He has averaged 21 points per game for the season, peaking at 29 points two weeks ago against Kansas. Hill is 10th in the nation in rushing yards, and faces a Kansas State defense that ranks 157th in yards per rushing attempt allowed (5.3).
JaTarvious Whitlow ($5,600 DK Only) faces a Tennessee defense that fares even worse against the run (121st in yards per attempt, 138th in yards after contact per attempt) than it does against the pass. His carries have been limited for a few weeks as he has been nursing a shoulder injury, but he has been a full participant in practice this week and looks ready to roll. Whitlow has averaged a solid 3.2 yards after contact per attempt, while breaking 15% of tackles.
Trestan Ebner ($4,700 DK, $5,700 FD) received 20 touches last week, by far his most of the season. Ebner excels as a pass catcher, snaring 15 of his 19 targets out of the backfield this season while averaging over 7 yards per target. Ebner should be able to secure some garbage time passes against the Longhorn defense.
Studs to Pay Up For:
Dexter Williams ($8,200 DK, $9,800 FD) has handled 75% of Notre Dame’s non-QB rushing attempts over the past two weeks – at 9 yards per attempt and with 4.4 yards after contact per attempt. He’s
averaged 29 fantasy points over those two games, and should get roughly 30 points against Pittsburgh’s porous rushing defense (125th in yards per attempt allowed).
Trayveon Williams ($7,900 DK, $9,200 FD) scored 5 fantasy points against Alabama and 10 against Clemson, but has averaged 35 fantasy points per contest in his other four games. He ranks fifth in the nation in rushing, and South Carolina has allowed 4.5 yards per rushing attempt (105th) 2.6 yards after contact per attempt (115th) and a 20% broken tackle rate (147th). Jimbo Fisher likes to ride his lead back like a workhorse, and Williams has 60 touches over the past two games.
Darrell Henderson ($9,500 DK, $10,100 FD) leads the nation in rushing and in yards per attempt (11.8), ranks second with 7.6 yards after contact per attempt, and is 16th in broken tackle rate (24%). His price is steep, but he’s an electric home run hitter playing in the game with by far the highest total of the day.
Wide Receiver
Bargain to Bank:
Cam Chambers ($3,000 DK, $7,200 FD) is a complete steal if Jalen Nailor misses another game for Michigan State. Chambers caught all five of his targets last week against Northwestern for 82 yards, finishing second in receiver targets on the team behind….
Other Value:
Felton Davis III ($6,000 DK; $9,000 FD), the object of Lewerke’s eye 13 times last week; which was 34% of his season target share. Michigan State has suffered multiple injuries to their receiving corps, and the senior is the last man standing. Davis is a 6’4” possession receiver who is averaging nearly 10 yards per target.
Jalen Hurd ($6,500 DK; $9,700 FD) and Denzel Mims ($5,700 DK; $8,900 FD) are the heavily targeted Baylor receivers to stack with Brewer. Hurd is a converted running back and slot receiver who gets the ball in a variety of ways, while Mims is the deep play threat. Hurd averages 12.4 targets per game and has 14 rushing attempts over the past two weeks, while Mims averages 9.4 targets per game.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($6,700 DK, $9,100 FD) has surpassed teammate Collin Johnson ($6,500 DK, $8,500 FD) in pricing on both sites. Each have 47 targets on the season, averaging over eight per game, but Humphrey has averaged an additional 2.2 yards per target while recording nine additional broken tackles. Humphrey also threw a touchdown pass against Oklahoma last week. Stack either with Ehlinger.
Alize Mack ($4,500 DK; $6,300 FD) is second on Notre Dame in targets (17) since Ian Book took over at Quarterback, and is tied for the team lead over that span with 5 Red Zone targets. Mack has recorded six catches in two of the past three games, but just one touchdown. He should hit value with a trip to the end zone in a game where Notre Dame should throttle Pittsburgh.
Tyler Johnson ($5,900 DK; $8,700 FD) and Ronald Bateman ($4,800 DK; $7,900 FD) dominate targets for Minnesota and should have opportunities while playing from behind against Ohio State. Each have at least five catches in all but one game. Bateman has three touchdowns over the past two weeks, while Johnson has a three touchdown game and a two touchdown game on the season. However, their Quarterback, Zach Annexstad, rates very poorly with a 71 IQR and a 63% on-target throw rate.
Studs to Pay Up For:
Aaron Fuller ($6,800 DK; $8,900 FD) has 29 more targets than Washington’s next closest receiver, and 10 more targets than the other star receivers that I like in this slate; Parris Campbell ($7,400 DK, $9,800 FD) and Miles Boykin ($7,300 DK; $9,200 FD). However, Campbell (30) and Boykin (29) have emerged in recent weeks and have seen their total targets surpass Fuller (24) in that span. Campbell has been the most efficient on the season, averaging 11.4 yards per target with more touchdowns (7) than Fuller and Boykin combined. That being said, each has received between 6-8 Red Zone targets on the year.
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