College Football DFS Week 8 – DraftKings and FanDuel Featured Noon Slate Value Plays
College Football DFS Week 8 – DraftKings and FanDuel Featured Noon Slate Value Plays
Written by: Sean Zerillo
There are nine games in common between the DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) featured noon slates this Saturday, one game unique to DraftKings, and five games unique to FanDuel. Below you will find a guide of implied game scores based upon the betting lines and point totals.
Common Games
12 PM
• Illinois (16) at Wisconsin (41.5)
• Oklahoma (34.5) at TCU (27)
• Auburn (33.5) at Mississippi (30)
• Michigan (24) at Michigan State (17)
3:30-4 PM
• Alabama (42.5) at Tennessee (14.5)
• Memphis (32) at Missouri (41.5)
• Penn State (38) at Indiana (23.5)
• NC State (19.5) at Clemson (36.5)
• Colorado (16.5) at Washington (33.5)
DraftKings Only
3:30 PM
• Kansas (20.5) at Texas Tech (38.5)
FanDuel Only
7-8 PM
• Central Florida (43) at East Carolina (21.5)
• Ohio State (40.5) at Purdue (28)
• Oregon (32.5) at Washington State (35.5)
•USC (20.5) at Utah (27.5)
• Mississippi State (19.5) at LSU (25.5)
Note: There are a few key differences for roster construction purposes between DraftKings and FanDuel. While both sites provide for a lineup consisting of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, and a SuperFlex (includes QB), you must also fill a traditional Flex spot on DraftKings. FanDuel gives you $60,000 to fill seven roster slots ($8,571 per slot), and DraftKings gives you $50,000 to fill eight roster slots ($6,250 per slot). DraftKings is also a full point per reception, while FanDuel is 0.5 points per reception
Quarterback
Bargain to Bank:
Peyton Ramsey ($6,100 DK; $8,200 FD) is an inexpensive Quarterback who gets a ton of volume. Ramsey ranks 10th in the nation with 251 passing attempts, and he has averaged 44 passing attempts over his past four games, with 10 rushing attempts per game on the season. The matchup isn’t great – Penn State owns a 76 QBR against (52nd), and Ramsey’s Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR), a metric which adjusts for dropped passes and other events that are out of their control, is 93, 104th best among qualified QBs. Ramsey has scored between 16 and 28 fantasy points in every game this season, and I think that he will be near the higher end of that range this week with Indiana’s three implied touchdowns.
Other Value:
David Blough ($8,600 FD Only) has averaged 43 passing attempts, and over 30 fantasy points per game in his last four contests. Purdue is projected to reach the end-zone four times against Ohio State’s banged-up defense, and Blough should have a big hand in keeping this game close. He rates 38th amongst qualified Quarterbacks with a 114 IQR, and is 27th with an impressive 8.9 yards per attempt.
Jarrett Stidham ($6,000 DK, $7,700 FD) posted 20 fantasy points last week against Tennessee, albeit on 45 throws, but he should be able to crack 20 points once again this week. Auburn has a team total over 30, and the Ole Miss passing defense has a QBR allowed of 99, 124th in the country. The much maligned Stidham is poised for his best effort of the season.
Stud to Pay Up For:
Drew Lock ($9,200 DK; $9,700 FD) owns a 36:23 touchdown to interception ratio against SEC opponents since the start of the 2016 season, with a 43:6 ratio against non-conference opponents. Missouri comes home after road losses at South Carolina and Alabama, and will face a Memphis defense (81 QBR allowed, 70th) that has been less efficient at stopping the pass than Missouri’s past four opponents: Alabama (61, 15th); South Carolina (76, 54th); Georgia (71, 38th), and Purdue (77, 56th). I’m expecting a big day for Lock.
Running Back
Bargain to Bank:
Jonathan Taylor ($9,700 DK, $9,900 FD) is a must-start for me this week, even as the most expensive skill player on DraftKings and the fifth most expensive on FanDuel. Wisconsin is projected to show out this weekend, with a rare projected team total over 40 points, after getting blown out by Michigan last Saturday. Taylor already has two 40 fantasy point efforts on the season+, including his game two weeks ago against Nebraska when he rumbled for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. The nation’s second leading rusher has generated 57% of his yards after contact this season, and he ranks fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.8) amongst backs with at least 100 carries. He has a dream matchup against a miserable Illinois defense that ranks 148th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.1), 161st in yards after contact per attempt (3.1), and 123rd in broken tackle rate against (10.7%).
Other Value:
Larry Rountree III ($5,200 DK; $8,300 FD) and Damarea Crockett ($5,100 DK, $7,500 FD) are stuck in a hot hand timeshare in the Missouri backfield. Rountree has averaged four additional carries over the past four games, but Crockett has been the more efficient runner for the past two seasons – his broken tackle rate is roughly 8% higher and he has averaged an additional 0.8 yards after contact per attempt. Either back is capable of having a big day – they have three 20 fantasy point efforts between them in the past four games+ – the problem is figuring out which one it will be. I’d swap them out, one for another, in separate tournament lineups.
Stud to Pay Up For:
Miles Sanders ($7,100 DK; $9,800 FD) ranks second in yards after contact per attempt (4.4), and yards per attempt (6.7), amongst backs with at least 100 carries. Although he has averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game, most of that came on one big effort – a 200 yard, 3 touchdown performance against Illinois in Week 4. That being said, Sanders ran for 162 yards and a touchdown last week against a Top 5 run defense in Michigan State (2.3 yards per attempt allowed), and he will now face an Indiana defense allowing 4.3 yards per attempt (93rd), with a positive game script as a two touchdown favorite. I like Sanders for 25-30 points.
Wide Receiver
Bargain to Bank:
Jarrison Stewart ($3,000 DK, $5,700 FD) is second on TCU with 17 targets over their past three games, yet remains a minimum priced option on DraftKings. The senior has recorded 16 of those targets out of the slot, and no other TCU receiver has recorded more than one slot target during that span. Oklahoma has allowed a 104 QBR to slot receivers this season (126th), and an 88 QBR to all other targets (83rd); a weakness that dates back to last season, and one that I look to exploit in DFS on a weekly basis.
Other Value:
Jalen Knox ($4,500 DK; $7,800 FD) should be the biggest beneficiary of Emmanuel Hall’s continuing absence for Missouri. Knox ranks second on the team in yards per target (9.66), behind Hall’s staggering mark of 15.9, and leads the Tigers with 14 targets over the past two games.
Albert Okwuegbunam ($5,100 DK; $7,600 FD) leads Missouri with 43 targets on the season. The 6’5”, 260 pound Tight End looks to be an NFL talent, and he has received consistent volume with four catches in each of the past five games.
Easop Winston ($8,400 FD Only) ranks second on Washington State with 35 targets when split out wide, for 11.6 yards per target. Winston leads the Cougars with 24 targets over the past three games. Dezmon Patton ($7,500 FD Only) ranks third on the Cougars with 32 targets out wide, 25 more than the next closest receiver, while averaging 11.4 yards per target. Oregon’s defense has allowed a 71 QBR to slot receivers, but a 103 QBR to receivers lined up wide.
Studs to Pay Up For:
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown ($8,400 DK; $10,000 FD) is a fixture in this column. He has three straight 30 fantasy point efforts+, at least 19 points in every contest, and is second in the nation in yards per target (14.7) behind…
Jerry Jeudy ($8,100 DK; $9,700 FD), who seems to score on the first play every week and has recorded an astonishing 19.6 yards per target. Jeudy has broken 20 fantasy points in five of seven games, and his importance to the Alabama offense only grows with Devonta Smith sidelined.
A.J. Brown ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD) is averaging nine targets per game, and his importance to the Ole Miss offense only grows with D.K. Metcalf’s season ending injury. Metcalf ranked third in the country in yards per target, and his replacement, Braylon Sanders ($5,000 DK; $6,600 FD), is an intriguing but unproven option.
Want more? Sign up for the SIS Bonus Pack.