Finding the Perfect Showdown Lineup Combination: Patriots/Eagles

The biggest sporting event in America kicks off this Sunday, and there are DFS single-game contests available for those who want to get in on the action. In this article, I’m going to concentrate on DraftKings’ $2.4M Big Game Millionaire contest, where you fill a six-player lineup (four offensive players, two defensive) for the chance to win a cool $1 million for finishing first. For more details on the contest, make sure to check out fathalpert’s thorough breakdown of the Patriots-Eagles matchup in this primer.

As RotoGrinders’ new Director of Data & Analytics, I was brought in to look at DFS from a more data-heavy perspective. Specifically, I want to apply the power of various machine learning tools available for programming languages like R and Python to the unsolvable puzzle of DFS.

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Choosing the Optimal Model

My approach to analyzing this particular contest was driven by the unique nature of the single-game slate: every player is interacting with others on the slate. There is a ton of great research out there detailing how to approach multi-game slates, the benefits of stacking, and whether or not to fade chalk players. As good as the existing research is, it doesn’t apply to a contest where stacking isn’t only recommended, but mandatory.

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About the Author

colekev
Kevin Cole (colekev)

Kevin Cole previously worked on Wall Street as an equity and credit analyst before transitioning to data-related sports analysis. For a number of years, Kevin has specialized in creating predictive sports models that includes published work at Pro Football Focus, Rotoworld, numberFire, and RotoViz. He is now the Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders.