NCAAF Impact Injuries 10/5
NCAAF Impact Injuries
Written by: Corey March
Sports Info Solutions collects the most detailed injury data in the world.
Here in our Pennsylvania office, we have an army of 60+ video scouts who watch every game and are trained to flag any incident that resembles an injury. Each injury is quantified using a severity scale and described to identify things such as the injury type, how it occurred, and what body part is affected.
We then have our in-house injury expert watch every play that has an injury flag and use his kinesiology experience to come up with a diagnosis. In addition to that, we scour all available third-party resources in search of injury news and updates.
Injury data like this isn’t available publicly and bookmakers are sometimes unaware of injuries that may affect upcoming games.
Here are a few important injuries from last week:
Armani Rogers, QB (UNLV)
- Injury: Fractured Toe
- Timeline: Out for 6 weeks
- Impact: The struggling Rebels will have to make ends meet without their second-year Sophomore starter. Rogers has delivered poor results through the air to the tune of a bottom-10 QBRating and On-Target Throw Rate. With that said, the Rebels are one of the most run-heavy teams in the nation and that is where Rogers’ presence will be sorely missed. UNLV is coming off a loss to Arkansas State where Rogers was a horrid 5/21 for 23 Yards and 3 INTs but redeemed himself with 26 carries for 181 Yards and 1 TD on the ground. Replacement Max Gilliam also profiles as a dual threat but we have to believe he brings less to the table than Rogers. This week UNLV will be host New Mexico as an 8-point favorite. New Mexico is a poorer version of UNLV, with or without Rogers – I’d be inclined to take the Rebels at -7 or less but I’d rather pass than lay more than a touchdown here.
Mitchell Guadagni, QB (Toledo)
- Injury: Concussion
- Timeline: Questionable
- Impact: Toledo has been one of the more effective pass offenses this season with Guadagni at the helm. Among QBs with 50+ pass attempts, his 133.5 IQR ranks him 9th in the nation ahead of names like Jake Fromm, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Guadagni exited last week’s contest against Fresno State’s formidable pass defense and the team went on to lose by 22. Backup Eli Peters hasn’t been impressive in limited playing time, only delivering 55.6% of his 36 throws on target. Peters won’t need to dazzle in order for the Rockets to take down a lowly Bowling Green team at home, but he’ll need to bring it to cover a steep 21.5 point spread. The Toledo running attack hasn’t been a strength and will now be missing their leading rusher – Guadagni has piled up 253 rushing yards on 42 attempts and Peters has shown no ability to contribute on the ground (-33 yards on 5 attempts). I like Bowling Green’s chances to hang around in this game and cover the spread.
Kai Locksley, QB (UTEP)
- Injury: High Ankle Sprain
- Timeline: Doubtful
- Impact: There is no mercy for this UTEP team that ranks 128-of-130 in our SIS rating system and last in the Action Network power rankings. Among 149 QBs with 50+ attempts, Locksley ranks 148th with an IQR of 45.8 (only Arthur Sitkowski from Rutgers is worse). Maybe this is a blessing in disguise but probably not as the Miners will turn back to former starter Ryan Metz, who the team felt the need to bench in favor of Locksley. UTEP will be on the receiving end of a hefty 27 points at home against North Texas this week. The Mean Green have been a strong side, with a 4-1 record with some decisive wins against some opponents that are way more functional than UTEP. It’s worth noting that North Texas will be missing their leading RB Loren Easly (torn ACL) for the remainder of the season but that will be a bigger factor against more competent opponents down the road. I don’t think the UTEP quarterback situation will be overly impactful toward the outcome either. I tend not to play massive favorites on the road but North Texas feels like the right side here.
AJ Dillon, RB (Boston College)
- Injury: High Ankle Sprain
- Timeline: Questionable
- Impact: Dillion has been one of the premier running backs this season and one of the most featured members of any offense you’ll find. He has three times as many carries as the next leading ball carrier in a BC offense that has sixth most rushing attempts in the nation. The power back left last week’s game and now carries a questionable tag into this week’s road showdown with #23 NC State. His replacement, Ben Gilnes, proved himself a capable runner when called upon in the second half against Temple, who’s run defense rates out similarly to NC State. If Dillon misses the game, Gilnes should be able to fill in well enough that the spread shouldn’t be too affected. BC has shown an ability to move the ball through the air when needed, but it’s hard to say how much of that success can be attributed to the run game opening up the pass. The line opened at NC St -3.5 and has climbed all the way to -6. I think these two teams are evenly matched – if Dillon suits up, I’ll take the 6 points but if he’s inactive I’d look for the line to move to +7 before playing BC.
Bryce Love, RB (Stanford)
- Injury: Ankle Sprain
- Timeline: Questionable
- Impact: While we’re on the topic of high-profile running backs, Bryce Love is on the fence to suit up in Saturday’s Pac-12 showdown with Utah. Our numbers call Utah the better team thanks to the highest rated defense in the country which is allowing just 2.6 Yards per Carry and never surrendering big plays on the ground. It doesn’t help that Love hasn’t been himself through the first five weeks. Among the 100 RBs with the most carries, he ranks 53rd in Yards per Carry (4.3) and 55th in Broken Tackle% (7.9%). Despite 64% of the tickets coming in on Stanford, the line has moved down from Cardinal -5 to -3.5. Both teams have struggled to score at times this season which has me to leaning toward taking the points and also liking the under (46).
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