Three For Saturday: College Football Week 8 Picks
Three For Saturday: College Football Week 8 Picks
Written by: Sean Zerillo
The Pick: North Carolina (+10) at Syracuse
The Orange are coming off of a bye following a road loss at Pittsburgh as 3.5 point favorites, while the Tar Heels are looking to bounce back after choking at home last week against Virginia Tech. UNC fumbled at the Hokies 2-yard line, up 19-14 with 6 minutes to go in the 4th quarter, before conceding an 18-play, 98-yard drive and giving up the go ahead touchdown and two-point conversion with 19 seconds remaining to fall 22-19. UNC out-gained Virginia Tech 522-375 despite running four fewer plays; an average of 2.3 yards per play better.
The line for this week’s game opened at Syracuse -12, before being driven all the way down to -8.5, and now is back up to -11 in some places. Syracuse has a big home field advantage in September, when warm weather mixed with the air-condition-less Carrier Dome (which is unbelievably ironic for a sponsor that makes air conditioners and refrigerators) creates an unwelcome-ably humid environment for visitors. That advantage disappears with the summer heat, and is all but gone by this point in the season.
Syracuse has thrived in the home underdog role – beating FSU 30-7 as a 3.5 point underdog earlier this season, Clemson 27-24 as a 23.5 underdog last season, and the Hokies 31-17 as a 22.5 point underdog in 2016. Coming into a game as a double digit favorite is a different mindset, however, particularly against a hungry 1-4 team that has played better than its record would indicate, and who is now at full strength after 13 players have returned from various suspensions for selling shoes.
UNC has been sparked in the running game recently by explosive sophomore tailback Michael Carter, whose role has grown after missing the first two games of the season with a fractured wrist that he suffered during the preseason. Carter is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, 5.1 yards after contact per attempt and has a 23% broken tackle rate after leading UNC in yards per attempt (5.9), yards after contact per attempt (3.0) and broken tackle rate (34%) last season.
Carter and the UNC rushing offense should be able to keep this game within range against Syracuse’s porous rushing defense – 4.9 yards per carry, 133rd; 3.1 yards after contact per attempt, 156th, 17.6% broken tackle rate, 197th – and they have a chance to win the game outright. 10 points is a monster number for Syracuse to cover, in an unfamiliar role as a big favorite in an ACC game. Take the points.
The Pick: California (-7) at Oregon State
Oregon State’s preseason win total was set at 2.5, and but for a 48-25 home win against Southern Utah, they could be staring down the barrel of a winless season. After a home date with Cal this week, the Beavers play at Colorado, host USC, and then travel to Stanford and Washington before returning home to Oregon and the Civil War. What a brutal stretch to end the season.
Cal comes into Corvallis on the heels of three straight conference losses, including a 37-7 home loss to UCLA last week, with a target on their back as Oregon State’s most likely chance at a Pac 12 win this season. Per Football Outsiders, Cal ranks 65th in S&P+ ratings, 90th in FEI ratings, and 76th in the F combined ratings+. Oregon State ranks 112th, 119th, and 118th (out of 130) by the same systems.
The Golden Bears won this matchup 37-23 at home last season, and I’m expecting them to get off of the schneid and secure their first Pac 12 win of the season before the difficult part of their own conference schedule kicks in.
The Pick: Mississippi State (+7) at LSU
Picking against LSU, playing at Tiger Stadium at night, takes a strong stomach. I considered LSU to be amongst the most overrated teams in the country coming into the season, and they have consistently proven me wrong. That being said, after falling in a back and forth battle at Florida two weeks ago, and coming up with a monster effort to upset Georgia at home last week, I’m wondering how much more LSU has left in the tank.
A third straight big effort is a major ask for a college football team – even at home in a night game the week before a bye. Mississippi State is coming off of a bye week of their own, and is in a great spot here to upset an LSU squad that they dominated 37-7 at home last season.
Both teams have excellent defenses – the Bulldogs are allowing 3.3 yards per carry (32nd) and have a QBR allowed of 65 (26th), while the Tigers are allowing 3.4 yards per carry (41st) and have a QBR allowed of 64 (23rd). Mississippi State has the most explosive playmaker in the game in running back Kylin Hill, who has averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, 4.3 yards after contact per attempt, and broken tackles at a 28% clip.
I’ll take the points in an excellent spot for the Bulldogs, in a game that they could win on the field.
The Picks
• North Carolina +10
• California -7
• Mississippi State +7