Week 5 TNF Prop Bets
Week 5 TNF Prop Bets
Written by: Corey March (all statistical research conducted on the SIS DataHub)
Nyheim Hines over 5.5 receptions
The Colts will travel to New England as 10.5 point underdogs and without three of their most involved offensive weapons (T.Y. Hilton, Jack Doyle and Marlon Mack). The trio has collectively missed five games this season, but still accounts for 38.1% of the Colts target share.
Without Mack occupying a portion of the backfield workload, the RB snap distribution over the last two weeks has been Nyheim Hines: 43, 62 compared to Jordan Wilkins: 17, 32.
Fresh off an 11-target game, Hines will once again be in an advantageous role with a game script that should require the Colts to throw early and often. When trailing this season, the Colts have thrown on over 80% of their offensive plays and targeted Hines more often than anyone in those situations (17 times).
Hines has seen 22-of-26 targets dumped off 5-or-less yards down the field. Among 34 quarterbacks with 50+ attempts, Andrew Luck ranks second in terms of percentage of throws traveling 5 or fewer Air Yards (62.4%).
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense hasn’t been overly-exploited through the air by opposing running backs (5.8 rec/game ranks 11th). However, the league average completion% to RBs is 75% but the Patriots have allowed 19 receptions on 20 catchable targets with the lone incompletion coming on a drop. This suggests New England is more inclined to limit yards after the catch than play the pass aggressively to try and break up the pass.
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