Are fly ball rates priced into daily fantasy salaries?
Okay, so batted ball profiles matter—fly balls are king—and they’re consistent enough for us to rely on. We can predict fly ball rates with accuracy, even on the nightly level, which is extremely important with any stat we consider. Something might be really important but simply possess too much variance to be useful. Injuries are an example of that: very important to fantasy owners’ fortunes, but not very foreseeable, and thus not terribly pragmatic as a tool in our predictive arsenal.
Whenever analyzing the usefulness of a particular stat or angle, I ask myself three questions:
1. Is that stat important to fantasy success?
2. Can we predict it?
3. Can it be exploited to generate value?
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