Can we predict batted ball profiles?
Answer: Yes, we can, so here’s how to leverage that information into an advantage.
The most challenging position to forecast in the NFL is quarterback. So little of NFL quarterback success is dictated my measurables—college stats, Combine numbers, and so on—that it’s really more of a qualitative evaluation process. You could say that, for teams selecting in the NFL Draft, the quarterback position is more or less of a crapshoot.
But not really, because there’s a very strong correlation between draft round and quarterback success in the NFL. Some of that is probably a self-fulfilling prophecy since top picks get more opportunities, but certainly the Tom-Brady-esque late-round quarterback successes are an anomaly—an exception to the rule that the best quarterbacks come early in the draft. Thus, although the chances of hitting on any quarterback are minimal and somewhat random, there are still underlying percentages that dictate what teams should do.
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