How to Actually Find Value in Daily Fantasy Basketball
Jonathan Bales is the founder of RotoAcademy and author of the Fantasy Sports for Smart People book series.
Daily fantasy is primarily a game of uncovering value—when expected production exceeds cost. It’s a simple idea, but there are obviously many complexities in doing it in the right way.
Value isn’t all that matters, especially in tournaments, but the degree to which you should be price-sensitive is related to predictability; the more often you can expect underpriced players to provide value—the most consistent the sport—the more price-sensitive you should be.
And there’s no sport that is more predictable on a nightly basis than basketball. Mike Trout goes 0-for-5 sometimes. Calvin Johnson occasionally has just a couple catches. But, unless injured, LeBron and Steph never have near-zero-point fantasy performances. The range of potential outcomes for basketball players is much, much smaller than in most other sports.
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