Incorporating Vegas Lines and Team Totals
Why are Vegas lines and team totals so important? They are one of the only tools in DFS that are both free and helpful. They can help us accurately predict an outcome (and game flow) of an NFL game, which is in essence exactly what we are trying to do in DFS, only at the player level. By necessity, Vegas has to be accurate with its lines because its viability hinges on it. If Vegas puts out inaccurate lines, the sharp bettors (and potentially the public) are going to have an absolute field day and eventually the books would lose enough money that they would have to shut down. Last season it was estimated that Americans bet $93 billion on the NFL, so it’s safe to say that sportsbooks have a financial interest in producing accurate lines.
We could go into more detail about why we can trust Vegas, but it’s more beneficial to focus on how the lines can help us predict games for fantasy football. There are three main subjects regarding the Vegas lines that we will cover in this lesson: Implied team point totals, expected game flow, and line movement.
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