Know Your Daily Fantasy Site
In almost every daily fantasy sport, there are nuances between sites. Some sites use utility roster spots in all sports; some sites do not. Some sites have a tighter salary cap; some sites have a looser salary cap. Some sites have more casual users; some sites have more hardcore users. However, I would argue that the biggest difference amongst all the major daily fantasy sites resides in the treatment of starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.
This may sound like an overstatement, but I’m really not embellishing here. Your starting pitcher selection strategy SHOULD vary based on what site you are playing on. As I will discuss in this lesson, there are many different factors to consider based on what site you are attacking. These distinctions amongst the sites will lay the foundation for the items that will be discussed in future lessons. Do not take this introductory lesson lightly, as it is vitally important as we move forward.
So, you may be asking: what is so unique about starting pitchers in MLB compared to different positions in other sports? Every site uses just starting pitchers, right? For the most part, yes, this is true. However, FanDuel allows you to take just one pitcher on each lineup. DraftKings directs you to take two pitchers on each lineup. FantasyFeud takes it a step further and requires you to take three starting pitchers on a single lineup. In a differing twist, newer site StarsDraft (formerly Victiv) uses a “team pitching” approach. Other smaller sites might start gravitating toward this method in the future. As you can see, these are quite different approaches to pitching. When you combine this with the overall roster setup on each site, there are also different strategies that should be employed. Let’s start with the most basic approach: the single-pitcher setup on FanDuel.
Basic Starting Pitcher Strategy – Single-Pitcher Sites
The general rule is the same for most of the single-pitcher sites. In most cases, you will want to pay up for your starting pitcher on these sites. On FanDuel, for example, a good starting pitching performance can end up totaling more than 50% and up to 75% of your total fantasy points for the night, even on a roster that scores well.
This is easier to understand with an example. Let’s say that Clayton Kershaw pitches a complete game shutout with 14 strikeouts, earning a well-deserved victory in the process. Based on FanDuel scoring, that’s nine points for the innings, 14 points for the strikeouts, and four points for the win (FanDuel doesn’t subtract points for hits allowed or walks allowed). That’s a 27-fantasy-point performance. Sometimes, scores in the mid-to-high 40’s are enough to place highly in tournaments. It isn’t unreasonable to think that you can do well in cash games or place in tournaments if your pitcher gets 27 fantasy points and your hitters only get you around 13 (for a 40-point night). That’s 27 fantasy points from one position and 13 fantasy points from eight other positions combined – and a good result for the night. You get the picture by now: your starting pitcher is an extremely integral component of your lineup on a single-pitcher site, and you need to get it right.
(Note: FanDuel changed their scoring for 2016, tripling each category. While it doesn’t change the strategy in this course, it will result in all scores being higher.)
This isn’t to say that you can’t go for a cheap starting pitcher on a one-pitcher site. There are circumstances where this is still a viable strategy. However, that is a rare occurrence. As a general rule, pitching is more reliable on a night-to-night basis than hitting. Even the best hitter can go 0-for-4 on a given night, but poor performances from elite starting pitchers are much rarer. The only time I will go after a value starting pitcher on FanDuel is when the matchup is prime, the pitcher’s price tag is a great value, and there isn’t a clear-cut ace that I want on that night. Obviously, taking a cheap pitcher is also a more viable strategy in a GPP than in a cash game, because the risk/reward approach is more pragmatic in a tournament format.
Basic Starting Pitcher Strategy – Two-Pitcher Sites
The difference in pitching selection strategies amongst different daily fantasy sites is most drastic when you compare a single-pitcher site (like FanDuel) to a two-pitcher site (like DraftKings). You cannot take the same approach on both sites and expect consistent success to follow. For example, if your approach on FanDuel is to always pay up for pitching, you would naturally expect to take two expensive starting pitchers on DraftKings. However, given the pricing dynamics, it is a rare occasion where you will be able to get two elite starting pitchers while still being able to afford quality bats. There is a lot more strategy involved with the addition of another pitching roster slot.
My general approach to cash games on a two-pitcher site is to pay up for my favorite pitching option of the night while using my other spot for my favorite low-to-mid range option of the night. You will find yourself taking a few more risks given the way you have to construct a roster with two pitchers while still fielding a team of hitters. Especially once we get to the middle point of a season, the pricing is efficient enough where it is hard to find extreme value with hitters. This makes it hard to “spend up” for both pitching spots. Obviously, circumstances change on a given night, but that is the general rule.
In tournaments, you can get really frisky here. It’s one of the reasons I love playing tournament formats on DraftKings. You can find a way to pay up for both pitching spots while skimping on bats, or you can go cheap for both pitching spots and load up on bats. Most people use the strategy I outlined in the previous paragraph, so this is also a way to diversify your lineups without going too crazy. Let the slate dictate what you do here. If there are a lot of high-end pitchers that you like, perhaps you pay up on that particular evening. If there are some value pitchers that have great matchups, perhaps you go cheap with pitching on that night. There are no hard and fast rules here, and it does take time to get used to a two-pitcher format. New MLB players are best served to start out on a single-pitcher site so as to not get overwhelmed from the get-go.
Basic Starting Pitcher Strategy – Other Formats
I will briefly touch on a couple of other formats here. There are a handful of sites that have tried using three starting pitchers and FantasyFeud still uses that format. There aren’t as many differences in strategies between a two vs. three-pitcher format as there are between a one vs. two-pitcher format, but there are still some. Obviously, the need to go value with one of the spots generally becomes a must. From there, you can choose to go with two elite arms or one elite arm and a mid-range arm. You have more flexibility with your roster construction in a three-pitcher format, but this definitely takes a lot of getting used to. It would definitely not be the first MLB format I tried.
As I mentioned in the opening paragraph of this lesson, StarsDraft (formerly Victiv) uses a team pitching concept. I personally don’t like it, but there are some merits. Namely, you don’t have to call your night a lost cause if your starting pitcher leaves the game in the first inning with an injury. That’s a bonus. However, it takes a lot of the fun out of it for me. That’s not to say that there isn’t strategy involved, though. If you play with a team pitching format, make sure to always take a staff that is pitching at home. The away team is guaranteed to hit for nine innings, so you are guaranteed nine innings pitched. If you take a road pitching staff, you run the risk of only getting eight innings pitched if the home team is not forced to bat in the bottom of the 9th inning. You can also take more risks on a team that may not have a great starter going that night, especially if they have a good matchup and an elite bullpen. Those are the main points to think about if you play this format.
This first lesson was intended to give you some background information on why starting pitcher selection is such a critical component to MLB success. If you take these principles and adapt your own approaches to them, you should develop a pattern that works for you. Now, let’s head to Lesson #2 and talk about some basic statistical analysis we can use to help find the right pitcher on a given night.