NHL DFS Strategies and Lineup Construction
Stacking
More than any other sport offered in the DFS World, hockey is the most “Event-Based” of them all. The majority of fantasy points come from goals scored and, on average, we only see 5-6 goals scored per game in the NHL. So, there are not only fewer scoring opportunities in hockey, but it also happens to be the only sport where three players can rack up fantasy points on the same event. It’s commonplace in NFL contests to see users pairing QB’s with WR’s in hopes of “double-dipping” fantasy points on a single touchdown pass, but in hockey, this “multiplier” strategy can be carried out even further. On top of a goal being credited to the goal scorer, two of his teammates have the possibility of picking up an assist on the same play.
Based on the above-mentioned attempt to multiply fantasy points from one single event, the most common DFS hockey strategy was born: Team Stacking. Opponents of team stacking will argue that it removes some of the skill from the game, but two things have proven to be true: 1) Its upside makes it very effective, and 2) there are many different ways to create and/or utilize a “stack”. You’ll see stacking utilized by many (most) DFS’ers in both cash games and GPP’s, but to what degree differs greatly.
Step #1 for any DFS hockey player when creating a lineup should be to determine a specific goal. Just like in any other sport, In NHL cash games, you should be shooting for the highest possible floor whereas in GPP’s, users will aim for the high-end offensive production and are far more willing to make riskier roster decisions. With this in mind, you’ll see heavily stacked teams in GPP’s, while most cash game lineups will limit their exposure to the same team/line to some degree as they search for the safer floor.
Inevitably, the preferred stacking approach is often determined by several factors;
1) Game type (as mentioned above)
2) Salary constraints
3) your level of risk aversion
Another benefit to stacking players from the same team is that it often allows you to soften the average cap hit when targeting the expensive studs. Find your comfort zone with your preferred stack technique, as I don’t suggest ignoring it as a successful approach to DFS hockey.
Attack with the Power-Play
Last season, 20.6% of all goals scored in the NHL were done so on the power-play. With a fifth of the scoring plays happening in this scenario, it’s vital to load your lineups with players who see as much playing time with the man-advantage as possible.
Each NHL team typically rolls out two entirely different power-play units, with the “#1” unit typically starting things off and seeing roughly 60% of the available playing time, leaving the remaining 40% for the second unit. Our lineups page is a great resource to see which players are slated for power-play time, as they’ll be designated with a “PP1” or “PP2” next to their names.
Aside from just seeing time on the power-play, two other factors should always be part of your decision-making process as well; 1) The strength of the opposing team’s penalty kill, and 2) The frequency with which the opposing team commits penalties. Some teams are simply more disciplined than others, some have lethal snipers who thrive when given a little bit of space, and others are stacked with pesky penalty killers.
The Impact of Slate Size
The size of a DFS slate affects strategies in all DFS sports, but it’s impact in DFS hockey is magnified. In cash games, the impact is less severe as the goal should still be to include as many of your favorite high-floor players as possible. However, in GPP’s, the size of the slate should drastically change how you address your available player pool.
On large slates (we’ll say 8+ games), limiting your player pool to top-six forwards and only defenseman who see a steady dose of power-play minutes is a fine strategy. However, on the smaller (2 to 4 games) slates, having a broader play pool is needed. Most DFS’ers will still flock to the obvious options, so nailing a two-goal game from a third-line forward is the best way to differentiate yourself from the field.
Value Traps
Playing alongside talented teammates is often an instant source of value in fantasy hockey. For instance, Jimmy Cantskate would go from a nobody to one of the most popular plays of the evening if news breaks that he’ll join Sidney Crosby on the Penguin’s top forward line. These scenarios will happen frequently, but they shouldn’t all be treated equally.
A common mistake new NHL DFS’ers make is assuming a coach won’t mix up his lines mid-game, perhaps even after just a single shift or two if he senses something isn’t working. When this happens, our hypothetical 40% owned Jimmy Cantskate suddenly finds himself back on the fourth line and logs just five minutes of ice time. The takeaway here; don’t blindly assume a marginal hockey player will suddenly become successful simply based on his playing partners.
Goaltending
It may sound obvious, but always make sure you know your goaltender has been confirmed to start! NHL starting goalies typically play in 75% or so of their team’s games, leaving the backup goalie to fill in for about 20 games a year. Our lineups page will let you know when your goalie has been confirmed.
Now, let’s get into the statistics that you should be focusing on!