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Surviving Hot and Cold Streaks

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Interview after $100,000 Win

Hot and cold streaks happen in sports all the time and even though you might not think that they would happen in a skill game like fantasy sports, you are wrong. You can be using the same approach every single day when creating your lineups and still go through massive winning and losing streaks. That’s just how fantasy sports works sometimes and how you handle these hot and cold streaks is critical to your long-term success as a daily fantasy sports player. This lesson will give you some great tip on how to survive these streaks.

Hot Streaks

These are the fun ones, sometimes when things are going good, they just keep going good. A hot streak is when you go on an incredible run and just seem to make the right decisions every single day. It’s when you seem to always make the right decision between two players and everything seems to fall into place just right. Everyone loves hot streaks.

Now the question becomes how you should handle these streaks. While it is definitely a good problem to have, there are certain things that you don’t want to do during a hot streak like get over confident and start playing beyond your means. We are going to go through a list of questions on what to do during these hot streaks and then answer those same questions for what to do during cold streaks.

Common Questions/Concerns During A Hot Streak

1) Should you be playing more or less each night?
When it comes to a hot streak, I think the best answer is to start playing a bit more each night, but do it very gradually. My suggestion is to take your total bankroll and figure out what % of that you have been playing each night. Say that number is around 10%. Use this same 10% when you are on a hot streak and as your bankroll increases, so will the amount that you are playing each night. You don’t want to get overconfident and then have a bad night and lose all of the momentum that you had gained.

2) Should I enter new types of leagues such as GPP’s?
If you are on a hot streak my best advice would be to keep doing what you are doing. Play the same leagues as you have before and then maybe throw a couple lineups into a GPP. With a GPP, there is the potential for big wins so just make your team as you normally would and try to enter it in a GPP or two.

3) Should I change anything about my strategy?
This question is easy to answer for the hot streak. Whatever you are doing, it is working. Keep employing the same strategy and keep your same routine when building your lineup. The last thing that you want to do it to get a big head and start to think that you don’t need to do any research. Always stay focused and keep doing what you have been doing.

4) Should I try a new DFS site?
Trying a new site is never a bad idea, although this question really depends on how much time you have to devote to daily fantasy sports. If you have free time and would like to try a new site, you should definitely go for it. There are a ton of great sites with great promotions out there and most Grinders that are good on one site are able to find success on other sites as well. However, if you only have time for one site, stick to it.

Cold Streaks

Now we get to everyone’s least favorite subject, the cold streaks. How you handle a losing streak is really important because if you handle it wrong, you could quickly find yourself without any bankroll at all. When you are on a losing streak, nothing seems to be going right for you. Not only that, but you find yourself in bad moods because losing your bankroll can be stressful. What you have to always remember is to play within your limits and to never jeopardize anything in your personal life because of fantasy sports. Now, let’s answer those same questions for a cold streak:

Common Questions/Concerns During A Cold Streak

1) Should you be playing more or less each night?
When you are on a losing streak, the very worst thing that you can do is to try to win it all back the next night. This is a very hard concept to employ because after a rough night of DFS, all you want to do is win it all back. My rule of thumb is to put the same % of your bankroll in play every night, just like you did when you were on a hot streak. If you continue to play 10% of your bankroll, you will play less and less each night that you lose. This will really help you manage the ups and downs of fantasy sports.

2) Should I enter new types of leagues such as GPP’s?
Like I said above, the very worst thing that you can do on a losing streak is to try to win it all back the next day. If you are not a big GPP player, then don’t change your strategy during a losing streak by trying to win GPP’s. What you have to keep in mind is that you each day is a new day and there are plenty of chances for you to get back up there.

3) Should I change anything about my strategy?
This question is the one that seems to have the biggest debate. Sometimes when everything is going wrong, you want to completely change what you are doing to try to snap yourself out of the losing streak. But that’s not always the right answer. My advice is to take a look back at your previous experience, if you have always been a profitable player with a consistent winning %, do not change your strategy just because you are in a cold streak. Continue to apply the same lineup building skills that have worked for you in the past and you will eventually snap out of it. However, if you have never been a winning player, then it’s time for you to try something new, and RotoAcademy is a great place to start.

4) Should I try a new DFS site?
Some players play better on certain sites. Each site has a different salary structure and scoring system and if you find yourself in a long slump, maybe it’s time to try out a different site that better suits your playing style.

Hot and cold streaks are one of the most frustrating parts of daily fantasy sports. My best recommendation is to not get too high when things are going well and to not get too low when things are going bad. In daily fantasy sports you get to pick a new team each and every day. Remember to play within your limits and try to play the same percent of your bankroll every night. This will allow you to withstand the hot and cold streaks that come with a long season of DFS.



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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Instructor

Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Interview after $100,000 Win

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.