MLB Props and Pick'em
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)
Risking 1.36u to win 1uI'm ready to accept Rodon as an average strikeout pitcher. He was at a 22.4% K% last season, and he's at 22.6% this year (the league average is 22.2%). The guy with a strikeout rate over 30% from 2021-22 is gone.
Rodon has still been somewhat effective (3.68 ERA), but he has a career-high hard-hit rate and a bloated 4.49 xERA. He had solid strikeout showings against Milwaukee and Baltimore, but those are 2 above-average matchups. Houston is the opposite.
The Astros have the lowest strikeout rate vs. LHP. They're 7th or better in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties. Rodon has had much more success striking out LHB this year (29.6% K%), but will likely face just 3 tonight. Relying on whiffing Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez isn't ideal, not to mention the resurgent Jon Singleton.
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