Adam Dunn Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Twenty-two year old Ranger Suarez is not a major prospect for the Phillies. His Fangraphs player page features a mere 40 FV grade without a currently above average offering. He has a 12.5 K-BB% in three AAA starts after an 11.4 K-BB% in 12 AA starts this season. His debut will come in a difficult park in Cincinnati, but the Phillies probably noticed how easily pitchers making their first major league start have nearly no-hit the Reds this week. The lefty will will have to watch out for Eugenio Suarez (180 wRC+, .284 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), while Adam Duvall (108 wRC+, .239 ISO) and Scooter Gennett (109 wRC+, .182 ISO) have some pop as well. Joey Votto (121 wRC+, .125 ISO, .390 xwOBA) just gets on base. Once again Vegas is siding with the Reds against a rookie arm (4.97 implied runs) and one of these days, they'll eventually be right.

Homer Bailey has gotten absolutely torched by batters from both sides since his return from a long absence last year. LHBs have a .383 wOBA, 34.5 Hard%, while RHBs have a .418 wOBA, though with just a 25.4 Hard%. He has a league average ground ball rate against batters from either side. Kevin says the wind is likely to be blowing in from right at around 10 mph with stronger gusts tonight, but Bailey may need something like a hurricane to hold the Cubs down. Chicago has an implied run line of 5.55 runs that is currently third best on the slate. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant (304 wRC+ last seven days), Alex Avila, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber all have an ISO above .220 against RHP this season. This could get ugly. However, Mr. Bailey may not be the only Homer in the building tonight. Perhaps Mr. Lackey should adopt that first name because he's allowed the third most Homers in the majors this year (29). While RHBs have just a .283 wOBA against him since last season (LHBs .339 wOBA), batters from either side have hit the ball hard on around one-third of batted balls with 30 of his 52 HRs being surrendered to RHBs over that span. The Reds have one of the lowest implied run lines on the slate (3.95), but could be a sneaky contrarian stack here. Joey Votto (171 wRC+ vs RHP), Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett, and Adam Duvall all have an ISO above .235 against RHP this year, while Eugenio Suarez (114 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP this year) adds a 254 wRC+ and 43.8 Hard% over the last week.

The Reds are generally considered a below average offense, but with some power. Tonight, they have an implied run projection 4.6 runs, which is fourth most on the slate currently, offering players an interesting stacking opportunity tonight. It's likely that players considering Kershaw and/or Syndergaard are going to need to save money somewhere and this Cincinnati offense affords the chance to do so. Tommy Milone is a fly ball pitcher, who has allowed 25 HRs to 677 RHBs since 2015. For the Reds, RHBs Jose Peraza (119 wRC+), Adam Duvall (109 wRC+, .260 ISO), and Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .275 ISO) are all above average hitters against LHP since last season and we can include even Zack Cozart (91 wRC+, .218 ISO), who has a 254 wRC+ over the last week. This stack will cost you a combined $15.5K on DraftKings and just $13.1K on FanDuel, leaving plenty of room for pitching and perhaps even another high powered bat.

This is a great spot at home for Jaime Garcia, who uncharacteristically struck out 11 Braves in his last start after striking out just 12 of the previous 92 batters. His 57.3 GB% is fourth best in the majors though, while his K-BB jumps to 15.3% at home since last season. The Reds have an 80 wRC+ on the road and 82 wRC+ and 16.2 K-BB% vs LHP with names like Tyler Holt and Tony Renda floating around the lineup tonight. Though they have just one LHB int he lineup, Garcia has very little actual platoon split. LHBs do have 11 of his 12 HRs surrendered this year, he's actually generating an even higher ground ball rate against them this year (60%) with an evenly split wOBA just above .280 against batters from either side since last year. Heavily favored (-163), Garcia can be considered a top play on a thin board of aggressively priced pitchers, especially for less than $8K on DraftKings, even if the strikeout upside is usually limited. As one of several offenses projected in the 3.5 run range tonight, there's no interest in the Cincinnati bats here. Despite the heavily RH lineup, Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .250 ISO) is the only substantially above average bat vs LHP this season. Both Cozart and Duvall have a 100 wRC+ and .235 ISO though.