Adrian Beltre Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Run environment stands out more than the matchup
Tyler Glasnow has been a quality arm out of the pen for the Pirates and since being inserted into the rotation for the Rays. He bounced back from a terrible outing in Toronto with seven innings against Cleveland, but did allow two HRs and strike out only three. The Rangers have a 4.84 implied run line at home, which seems justifiable, but it's also the third highest total on a board fairly deep in pitching and perhaps light on very positive run environments. Glasnow has held LHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA with a 54.3 GB% this season, while RHBs have a .312 wOBA, .344 xwOBA and 44.7 GB% against him. Shin-Soo Choo (143 wRC+, .214 ISO) is by far the best overall hitter against RHP in this lineup this season. No other batter exceeds a 115 wRC+. Perhaps Adrian Beltre (107 wRC+, .171 ISO) gains in value here. The rest of the lineup has some left-handed power, but is very hit or miss with a lot of strikeouts.
Lineup construction fails to take advantage of massive reverse split, but still plays in great park
The expectation might be to see the Rangers above five implied runs against a marginal pitcher at home, but they're just a bit below that (4.89) against Jaime Barria tonight. Barria has pitched well of late. His 4.16 SIERA over the last month is two runs above his ERA (2.19), but Statcast backs the results with a .277 xwOBA. Also, for the season, he's shown a tremendous reverse split (RHBs .375 wOBA, LHBs .257) and this too is backed by Statcast with an 80 point reverse split. What does this mean for a Texas lineup with basically everyone hovering around a league average wRC+ and a .200 ISO vs RHP? First, nobody stands out as a must have bat, but nearly everyone seems playable with the two lowest wRC+ marks against RHP might be the best values: Elvis Andrus (93 wRC+, .106 ISO) and Adrian Beltre (95 wRC+, .139 ISO) are both below $4K on DraftKings.
A Cheap Consistent Bat
Look, there isn't many numbers to point to this year that will tell you that Beltre is a good hitter this year, but this guy does have a career full of great stats that I'm willing to bank on in great hitting conditions and a cheap price tag. It should be around 90 degrees over in arlington today and humid going against a a bullpen game for the Twins. Just don't overthink this spot and take the savings in a huge hitting spot.
Rising run line and one of the top parks on the board
The run line has been rising for the Texas Rangers this afternoon. Now up to 5.59, very close to the top of the board with only a couple of teams barely above them. Wade LeBlanc has done a nice job for the Mariners this year, but by xwOBA, batters from either side are within six points of a .350 mark against him since last season, despite RHBs having just a .293 wOBA against him over that span. The most positive run environment outside of Coors is a massive park downgrade for him and the Rangers have a team 141 wRC+, 12.4 BB% and 21.2 HR/FB over the last week all top the board. It's hard to find a poor play in this lineup, at least among the first seven or eight batters. Among those with at least 30 PAs against LHP over the last calendar year, only Rougned Odor (79 wRC+, .179 ISO) is below a 100 wRC+ and he has a 239 wRC+ over the last week. Robinson Chirinos (181 wRC+, .306 ISO) is a nice bat to have in the sixth spot. Adrian Beltre (157 wRC+, .183 ISO) can still do damage against LHP and is the second cheapest bat in the lineup on DK ($4K). As many Texas bats as you can afford is probably the right number to roster tonight.
Perpetually Underpriced Bat
I don't know why, but DK just seems to refuse to increase Beltre's price. He's sitting at way to look of a price tag (3.7k on DK) considering he's playing in one of the best hitting environments on the slate (it's 94 degrees in Arlington) and he's batting in the middle of the lineup. On the year, Beltre's numbers haven't been fantastic vs. RHP (.120 ISO and .317) but he has a long history of being better. He draws a matchup against Bundy who has been an up and down pitcher all year, but with his huge FB rate (46.6%) and hard contact rate (34.5%) he is prone to HR's. Add in that BAL has the 3rd worse bullpen in the league and you got a perfect senario for Beltre to crush value.
Keep Loading Up Here
The DK/FDRFT pricing is again tight enough that there just isn't much to love under the $4k/$8k barrier. With the Baltimore-Texas game again being the stand out on this slate, it makes sense to get your salary savers in this game, especially when you can get a skilled middle of the order batter on the top team, the Rangers. What Beltre lacks in home run power, he makes up for with hard hit line drives, giving him his 9th straight season with a batting average over .285, and a prime lineup spot that gives him both run scoring and RBI upside.
Lots of ground balls and some strikeouts, but a terrible park and some platoon issues
Trevor Cahill (24.3 K%, 3.49 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is one of the higher upside pitchers on the board. Texas poses a problem, but players should keep in mind his 58.5 GB%. He's been above 55% to batters from either side of the plate since last season, though LHBs do have a .348 wOBA against him as opposed to .305 for RHBs over that span. Adrian Beltre (104 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is still too cheap in this spot (around $3K on either site). Elvis Andrus (97 wRC+, .136 ISO) costs less than $4K on DraftKings with a nice lineup spot. Focus should be on LHBs for upside: Shin-soo Choo (138 wRC+, .226 ISO), Rougned Odor (80 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP and 207 wRC+, 63.2 Hard% last seven days), and Joey Gallo (111 wRC+, .288 ISO). Cahill is the most expensive pitcher on the board on DraftKings ($9.9K), but considering the state of pitching on this slate and the strikeout upside in this lineup, he may be worth some exposure for $7.4K on FanDuel.
One of the top projected offenses has affordable bats at top of the lineup
At 5.48 implied runs, the Rangers are behind only their opponents tonight. While Edwin Jackson has allowed only 10 ERs over five starts with an impressive 85.8 mph aEV, the strikeout rate (18.9%) is below average and incredibly dangerous in this park, along with 8.9% Barrels/BBE and his .198 BABIP is bound to regress significantly. With less than 40% of contact on the ground either way, Jackson has exhibited a reverse split since last season (.364 wOBA to .323) backed up by Statcast xwOBAs less than five points removed to batters from either side. His career numbers only have LHBs eight points abouve RHBs. While Shin-soo Choo (140 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the clear overall top hitter in this lineup and Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .304 ISO) is the upside guy, Adrian Beltre (100 wRC+, .149 ISO) is a value play, within $300 of $3K on either site. Rougned Odor (84 wRC+, .180 ISO) has a 218 wRC+ and 58.8 Hard% since the break and Elvis Andrus (98 wRC+, .138 ISO) is at a 200 wRC+ with a 66.7 K% for less than $4K. Robinson Chirnos (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) bats down in the order, but is certainly a viable catching option on a four game slate.
Keep Targeting Offense in the Heat
We have seen about a thousand runs in Texas over the last two nights, and we again have a massive Vegas total of 12 in this game. You can guarantee that ownership will be high on a four game slate, but this is clearly the top spot for offense. Edwin Jackson has posted decent surface numbers this year, but there's no reason to expect a career resurgence at this stage, and it's only a matter of time before luck catches up to him. Both LHBs and RHBs have posted a 24%+ line drive rate against Jackson, and there's a reason Texas has one of highest implied team totals on the board. Stack 'em up.
Can't Pass On This Salary
The game of the night is back in the Texas heat, with both sides being strongly in play on all sites in all formats. The standout value is Adrian Beltre in the middle of the Rangers lineup at a silly low salary across the industry. He is not the best hitter in this game, and there is certainly more power around him, but to get a cleanup hitter who makes contact and hits the ball hard in this environment, is just too much to pass up at this salary.