Anthony Rizzo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a 12 team board that features seven teams between four and a half and five implied runs, the Dodgers, Yankees and Twins are the only stacks that project for double digit ownership on both sites currently, though projections are fluid and subject to change. The Angels barely get there only on DraftKings. Despite adding four more teams, it’s no question which offenses smash the slate most often in simulations. It’s the same two as yesterday, who do so more than 15% of the time: Dodgers & Yankees. No other team smashes in more than 10% of simulations. Oakland projects as the top value stack on DraftKings (18.4%) by a fairly decent margin against George Kirby, who impressed in his first major league start, but has struggled in his last two against quality offenses (Mets & Red Sox). More than half his contact has left the bat at a 95 mph EV or higher. No other pitcher on the slate can say that, but he’s only had three starts. Stunningly, the Yankees currently project for the best value on FanDuel (12.2%), not too far ahead of the Tigers (11.2%) and Dodgers (10%). To read more about tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Despite two fewer games appearing the FanDuel slate, Giants stacks are projected to dominate ownership on either site, currently above 20% with the Yankees the only other team projected for double digit ownership, though this is subject to change. Interestingly, simulations suggest the Yankees smash the slate almost as often as the Giants with no other offense doing so more than 10% of the time. Facing Spenser Watkins in the Camden Yards is almost as beneficial as facing an average pitcher at Coors it seems. San Francisco bats are also too cheap. On both sites. Giants’ stacks also have top value projections on either site, though this is more overwhelming on DraftKings, where they’re current Value% is more than three times any other offense. It’s still a strong enough spot to give them Leverage Ratings above 2.0 on either site, but if players are really looking to differentiate and win a GPP, those ratings also suggest a few potentially more profitable spots. To find out what happens to Leverage Ratings when the top offense is so cheap, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tonight’s nine game slate is one of the more offensively oriented boards we’ve seen this year. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, the Cubs are above six implied runs with seven more teams reaching five implied runs and three more above 4.8 runs. That’s 11 of 16 teams above 4.8 runs, but then a sizable gap to Detroit at 4.06 runs currently, though we have to remember that the Padres don’t currently have a set number without a confirmed starter for the Nationals yet (expected to be Jon Lester). With that said, the Cubs are probably the only team we have to play some ownership leverage games with. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight and Matt Moore has allowed a .422 wOBA and .348 xwOBA to RHBs this year. Perhaps Anthony Rizzo could be one of those leverage bats as LHBs have just a .303 wOBA against Moore this year, but a .406 xwOBA and he has shown some reverse split tendencies in the past. Additionally, Moore has thrown just 12.1 innings since April and shouldn’t be expected to go too far in this game one way or another. Rizzo has a just a .115 ISO against same-handed pitching since 2020, but a 125 wRC+ and a .367 xwOBA that’s actually a few points above his real wOBA (.356), according to Statcast. Kris Bryant has just a 49 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but may still be one of the top bats on the board with a 189 wRC+ and .319 ISO against LHP since last year. Current ownership projections do have Bryant and Willson Contreras (115 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP since 2020) as the most popular bats on the board, around 30% each, but Rizzo has just the sixth highest Cubs’ projection at just 5%.

The last time the Braves saw Kyle Hendricks a couple of Sunday’s ago, they homered four times…in the first inning! Two of his other three starts have been of the quality variety, but both were against the Brewers and he also struggled with the Pirates in his first outing. While decreased velocity normally wouldn’t be an issue for him, he’s not below 87 mph on average and it’s potentially taking it’s toll. His 20.9 K% is right on his career rate, but the league rate keeps rising and his 8.6 SwStr% is his lowest in four years and he’s already tied his walk total for last year with eight. He’s also allowed seven HRs on 10 Barrels (15.5%) and while his 87.3 mph EV is still well below the league average, it’s a career high for him, while a 36.8 GB% is more than 10 points below his career rate. Hendricks has often baffled analysts by beating his estimators, but this year he’s nearly in line with his 5.55 xERA with a 5.68 ERA. However, the top Atlanta bats are really expensive here (especially on DraftKings) and not who this is really about, believe it or not.

Huascar Ynoa has jumped out to a 29.8 K% (13.8 SwStr%) through four starts, but has only whiffed more than five in one start against the Marlins and has allowed five HRs on 10 Barrels, which comprises 18.2% of his contact. The implied run line for the Cubs hovers around four tonight, which puts them much closer to the bottom of the board than the top, but they may be able to do more damage than expected here. We want to be careful of Kris Bryant’s status tonight, but removing him would leave Willson Contreras as the only batter exceeding $4K on DraftKings. The first thing that sticks out is that Ynoa has about a 100 point reverse split by wOBA since being called up for a few innings in 2019. However, Statcast pulls both sides up to within a point of a .365 xwOBA. Ynoa can miss some bats, but hasn’t been able to limit the damage on batted balls. Nico Hoerner has just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP in his short career, but has started off hot this season with a 203 wRC+ since being recalled and stuck in the leadoff spot. He also costs less than $3K on either site. The biggest surprise is finding Anthony Rizzo (135 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2019) at just $3.9K on DraftKings. It’s not like he’s been off to a poor start either with a 118 wRC+ and 91 mph EV this year. There’s a decent chance he’s one of the better values on the board tonight.

Brad Keller makes his first start of the year for the Royals tonight. He efficiently generated ground balls and kept the ball in the park for the Royals last year, which led to a 4.19 ERA more than half a run below estimators that weren’t optimistic about a 7.3 K-BB%. Statcast pumps Keller’s xwOBA up 30 points above his actual results to batters from either side of the plate. That give LHBs a .345 xwOBA. The Cubs are able to balance a lineup with hitters who hit RHP well. An expensive Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since last season) is one of your top overall bats tonight. He has a 164 wRC+ overall this year.

The Cubs are technically still playing for something, at least for one more day, though they’re not doing a very good job of it. Dario Agrazal has been a strong contact manager (86.3 mph aEV, 28.2% 95+ mph EV are both top two marks on the board), but he also owns the lowest strikeout rate (12.1%) with a 5.08 ERA and estimators all more than one half run higher. Daily fantasy players may have no choice but to side with cold Cubs’ bats here, those that remain healthy at least. Agrazal has allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in eight straight starts. He actually has a reverse split (RHBs .410 wOBA, LHBs .302) with the gap closed a bit by Statcast, though still substantial (.368, .325). This is where the absence of Kris Bryant hurts and power suppressing environment of Pittsburgh against RHBs helps, but not enough. Willson Contreras (122 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP) and Nick Castellanos (108 wRC+, .215 ISO) are still expected to supply RH power in the top half of this lineup, while Anthony Rizzo (151 wRC+, .241 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (122 wRC+, .294 ISO) are both useful from the left-hand side in this spot. All but Contreras actually have a wRC+ above 110 over the last week, suggesting the fault in this collapse lies in other spots. The Cubs (5.42) are currently the lowest of nine teams above 5.1 implied runs tonight.

The wind is projected to be blowing out to left field at up to 18 MPH this afternoon in Wrigley, and so WeatherEdge is seeing a huge bump in home runs and overall production for this game between the Cardinals and Cubs. For the Cardinals, they’ll face Jose Quintana who has had a very up and down year which has been mostly down of late. Over the past 30 days, Quintana has posted a 7.65 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.95 WHIP, .371 wOBA allowed and 5% K-BB. Paul Goldschmidt (.446 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Marcell Ozuna (.367), Matt Carpenter (.347), Yadier Molina (.346), Dexter Fowler (.325), Paul DeJong (.311) and Tommy Edman (.304) are all potential options. Fowler is leading off at jut $4k on DK, while Goldschmidt ($4.8k) and Ozuna ($4.5k) are good values considering the matchup and environment. Besides Edman at $4.8k, the rest of the Cards’ bats are $4.3k or less. The Cubs also get a nice matchup vs. Dakota Hudson who has a 3.35 ERA , but a 4.99 FIP, 5.04 SIERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.5% K-BB and 40.4% hard contact rate are all indicators that he’s not nearly as good as the ERA suggests. Nick Castellanos (.406 xwOBA vs. RHP this year since joining CHC), Anthony Rizzo (.405), Kyle Schwarber (.374), Jason Heyward .349), Victor Caratini (.344), Nico Hoerner (.333), Kris Bryant (.330) and Ben Zobrist (.308) are all good options here. Cubs’ top of the order bats will cost anywhere from $4.5k to $5.2k on DK, while guys like Zobrist, Caratini and Hoerner are all in the $3k range. This game as a O/U of 12 and batters should see very high ownership on the afternoon slate.