Chase Headley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Both the Astros (3.8) and Yankees (3.7) sport implied run lines significantly lower than the NLCS participants. Both the lower run lines and nature of a series tied at two may mean that the pitchers in this game have a bit longer leash than their NL counterparts, earned by their 2017 post-season resume so far. Dallas Keuchel has struck out 17 of 49 batters with a 57.1 GB% in two game starts, including striking out 10 Yankees in seven shutout innings in Game One of this series. It was one more strikeout than his season high of nine way back in May. He did lead all of today's starters with a 2.65 DRA, -0.7 Hard-Soft% and 66.8 GB% this season. LHBs had no chance against him this year with a .192 wOBA, 26.5 K-BB%, 72.9 GB% and -4.1 Hard-Soft%. RHBs were a little better (.293 wOBA, 10.1 K-BB%, 65.6 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%), though it's still hardly an ideal matchup. Today's confirmed lineup for the Yankees had a .343 wOBA, .210 ISO and 22.9 K% vs LHP this season. From the right side, Aaron Judge (149 wRC+, .265 ISO), Gary Sanchez (131 wRC+, .266 ISO), Aaron Hicks (140 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Todd Frazier (130 wRC+, .345 ISO) all punished LHP this year with Frazier perhaps the stealthiest play, but even Judge a potentially decent value with the highest price tag on the team ($4.4K DK, $3.6K FD). Hicks (17 PAs) and Chase Headley (22 PAs) each have a single HR in their career against Kuechel according to Daily Baseball Data. No other batter in tonight's lineup has more than 17 PAs or a .550 OPS against him in their career. Keuchel is at his best when he is effective down in the zone and a bit below it. If he's getting those calls, especially against Judge, it's going to make things very difficult for the Yankees. The man calling the balls and strikes appears to be Jerry Meals, according to RiverAveBlues (a popular Yankees blog). Via Swish Analytics umpire factors, available right here at RotoGrinders, Meals has called 314 games with a 19.6 K% and 8.2 BB%, a fairly average umpire (1.05 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost). Weather is unlikely to play a factor in this game. Kevin's forecast calls for wind speeds in the single digits, blowing slightly out to left with warmer than usual temperatures for this time of year, near 70 degrees.

Gary Sanchez will begin serving his suspension today and that makes things a bit easier for Dylan Bundy, who generated a 36.4 K% (17.8 SwStr%) over the last month. He's struck out at least eight in four straight with 12 in a complete game one-hitter last time out. He's ramped up his slider usage to 27.6% over these four starts (21.5% for the season). While the massive strikeout rate in conjunction with a with a 4.3 BB% over this span has kept his wOBA below .275 against batters from either side, when batters have made contact, they're still hitting it hard (40.6%) in the air (38.1 GB%) without much of a split. Bundy costs a bit above $9K on either site in a dangerous park, but the tremendous upside can no longer be ignored. With Sanchez out, Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .310 ISO, 43.6 Hard% vs RHP) becomes the isolated power threat. Didi Gregorius (124 wRC+, .224 ISO, 26.1 Hard%, 42.1 FB% vs RHP) and Brett Gardner (122 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP) can both hit the ball out too. Chase Headley (117 wRC+, .138 ISO vs RHP) has not shown much power against RHP, but has a team leading 280 wRC+ (43.8 Hard%) over the last week. Considering the amount of hard contact Bundy is still allowing on batted balls along with his fly ball tendencies, calculated exposure to Yankee bats could pay dividends. Bundy has an 88.1 mph aEV on the season that's fourth highest on the day slate.

Andrew McCutchen will not slow down. He now has a 352 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), the highest on the slate, with a 38.5 Hard% and four HRs. His home park is supposed to suppress RH power, but he's having none of it right now. Tonight's opponent is Sal Romano. RHBs have a .397 wOBA against him, but with a 60% ground ball rate and 0.0 Hard-Soft%. It's all in the 17.3 BB%. Christian Vazquez (342 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, one HR) and Eduardo Nunez (293 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) are part of the highest projected offense by Vegas (6.12 runs) against Miguel Gonzalez (RHBs .315 wOBA since 2016). Lucas Duda (273 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, three HRs) has found the American League to his liking. He gets Collin McHugh (LHBs .345 wOBA since last season) in Houston. No other batter has a wRC+ above 250 over the last seven days, but Chase Headley has just a 185 wRC+ and one HR on an 80% hard hit rate in 26 PAs. Brandon Belt and Jordy Mercer are at or just above 70% as well.

No single player on the slate tonight has a wRC+ above .300 over the last week. In fact, the hottest bat on the slate (10 PA min.) belongs to Jose Altuve (256 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, no HRs). While RHBs have just .304 wOBA against Alex Cobb since last year, that comes with a 36.1 Hard%. Altuve is a high cost, nearly matchup proof bat at this point. Looking for something cheaper leads you to Guillermo Heredia (255 wRC+, 30.8 Hard%, one HR) who should be in the lineup, perhaps even at the top, in Texas against Cole Hamels (RHBs .315 wOBA, 33.9 Hard% since last season). Ryan Zimmerman (244 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs) also has one of the top hard contact rates on the slate over the last week. Jose Urena has allowed a 39.1 Hard% in the month of July. Mike Zunino (168 wRC+, 60 Hard%, two HRs) and Chase Headley (142 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) are the only two batters on the slate with a higher hard contact rate than Zimmerman. While Zunino has never had issues hitting the ball hard, Headley has never been a big exit velocity guy (87.6 mph this year).

Chris Sale has been absolutely dominant in a Boston uniform. Gone are the days of pitching to contact and by missing bats at an elite rate again (38.9 K%, 15.8 SwStr%), he's actually accomplished his originally intended goal of consistently going deeper into games. He's gone at least seven in every start with at least 10 Ks in each of his last three. The weather is cool (mid-50s) with a slight breeze blowing in from right (8 mph), about as favorable pitching conditions as you'll see in Boston. The Yankees have the lowest implied run line on the slate (3.0) by over half a run. Sale has the top strikeout projection on either slate (8.25) on the RotoGrinder's Daily K Predictor, along with being the top overall projected pitcher on either site as well. Aside from ownership considerations, with the potential to be upwards of half of all lineups, there's really no legitimate performance related reason to consider fading him or choosing any Yankee bat. Chase Headley does have two career HRs in 14 PAs against him, but with just an 85.5 mph aEV on eight BBE.

Looking at hitter's with at least 10 plate appearances who have gotten off to a hot start this year, Chase Headley leads all players with a 415 wRC+ so far this year. He's affordable on either site as an off the radar bat with a plus matchup against walk machine Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. He's followed by Nomar Mazara (392 wRC+) also with a plus matchup at home tonight against Raul Alcantara. 63.6% of his contact has been graded as hard. Miguel Sano is third with a 350 wRC+ hitting half of his contacted balls hard. He also has a nice matchup against Derek Holland, although under chilly Chicago conditions. Each of these bats are affordable tonight, ranging between $3.8K to $4.2K on DraftKings and $2.9K to $3.1K on FanDuel.

Bartolo Colon has been absolutely horrendous against left-handed batters this season, with a low strikeout rate of 15.5%, that is accompanied by a minimal 35.4% ground ball rate, an above-average line drive rate (22.8%), and an astronomical 43.0% hard contact rate allowed. At this point in his career, Colon can only hope to luck into pitching solid outings which is backed up by his terrible advanced stats. DFS players even tend to avoid attacking Colon because he puts together solid starts often enough for us to feel uncomfortable exploiting that matchup, but in truth, Colon presents one of the most ideal matchups to left-handed batters in baseball. Of course with Carlos Beltran gone and Mark Teixeira out of the lineup, there isn't much to love in terms of power bats in the Yankees order. Brian McCann (.189 ISO vs RHP) is the top option here and will likely be relatively popular, to put it lightly. Chase Headley (.158 ISO vs RHP) would be the best secondary option given his bump up in the order. We can also always consider Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner as a part of a stack.

Verrett (4.92 SIERA) has posted slightly below-average strikeout numbers (18.5% K%), slightly below-average ground ball rate (41.8%), and surrendered above-average hard contact (32.4%) to left-handed batters thus far in his career. This makes Verrett a pitcher that can be susceptible to a lefty-heavy lineup such as the Yankees. Now that Carlos Beltran has officially been traded, it's tough to really get excited about the Yankees lefties in this spot. Brian McCann (110 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .195 ISO vs RHP) would be the top overall play for the Yankees at the barren catcher position. Chase Headley (104 wRC+, .330 wOBA, .164 ISO vs RHP) and Didi Gregorius (.180 ISO vs RHP) are both reasonably priced and will go way under the radar tonight in a plus matchup. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury can be considered even if solely for their prime lineup positions since they really lack the upside needed in tournaments.