Chris Archer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Chris Archer has easily been one of the most frustrating players to roster this year as he has been very prone to blow-ups even in good matchups. He has a horrid 2.23 HR/9, 5.40 ERA, 42.6% hard contact and 22.6% HR/FB on the year. However, Archer has looked remarkably better over the past 30 days with a 3.72 SIERA, 3.92 xFIP, 33% K rate, 9.6% BB rate and 14.2% SwStr. Looking at Archer’s profile, he hasn’t changed his pitch selection at all, but he has seen an improved O-Swing%, Z-contact% and SwStr% over the past 30 days. Archer faces the Mets this afternoon, who have been just below average with a 97 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. RHP on the year, and a 14th ranked .308 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Archer is still having homerun problems as evidenced by a 2 HR/9 over his past 30 days and is definitely not a safe play here. Especially when you consider the Mets have a 10th best 16.2% HR/FB vs. RHP this year. However, Archer has shown improvement and comes with a decently affordable price across the industry, which makes him intriguing on this slate given that there just aren’t many good options today.

Chris Archer has struck out 26 of his last 73 batters against the Cubs and Cardinals. In fact, he’s struck out eight in both of his starts against the Cardinals this year. It seems he’s said goodbye to a sinker and change that weren’t working and went back to being a four-seam and slider guy. Only a few starts, it could be a matchup thing and he’s still giving up runs (three in each start). He’s also only failed to allow a HR once in his last 14 starts, but this is daily fantasy where strikeouts trump all and then we decide how much of the noise surrounding them we can deal with. The answer may be quite a lot in this case because Archer costs just $7.5K on DraftKings and is in a strong spot tonight. The Cardinals have just an 88 wRC+ and 12.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Pittsburgh is a park that suppresses RHP similarly to St Louis and while that still leaves Archer susceptible to LH power, the Cardinals don’t really have much of that with Carpenter out. Oddly though, half of Archer’s 22 HRs have come at home and six of those to RHBs, so the park hasn’t really helped him at all in that aspect, though his wOBA (.326) is 27 points lower than on the road. This still leaves Archer as a dangerous start with an 11.3 BB% and 22.2 HR/FB, but the control has improved at least a bit, dropping his walk rate just under double digits (9.9%) over his last nine starts. He’s had no more than three in any of those outings. There’s always risk when dropping down to the middle of the board for pitching. There’s a reason these guys are there after all, but Archer has recently been showing the upside to potentially make him one of the top values on the board tonight.

It’s been a rough year for Chris Archer as he has posted a 5.56 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, 4.82 SIERA with an ugly 44.4% hard contact rate and horrendous 2.33 HR/9. Though his estimators given him hope for some positive ERA regression, Statcast is less enthused as Archer has allowed an ugly .376 xwOBA on the year along with a terrible 12.6% barrel rate and 88.3 MPH aEV. Archer’s homer prone tendencies certainly do not project to play well in Miller Park. Christian Yelich (.440 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Keston Hiura (.368), Mike Moustakas (.358), Yasmani Grandal (.349), Ryan Braun (.331), Eric Thames (.315) and Lorenzo Cain (.313) are all in play tonight vs. Archer. Yelich has been their hottest hitter of late with a .447 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Yasmani Grandal projects to lead off and has also seen the ball well with a .388 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The Brewers have a healthy 5.82 implied total versus Archer and the Pirates tonight.

The two highest xwOBAs on the board over the last month are Chris Archer (.402) and Jhoulys Chacin (.399). As luck would have it, they are pitching against each other in a positive run environment in Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers own the highest implied run line outside Coors tonight (6.07) and need no further endorsement, but coming off a drubbing of the Astros the last couple of days, the Pirates are projected pretty strongly at 4.93 runs as well. Chacin has normally exhibited a large platoon split, but this year, RHBs are hammering him for a .363 wOBA with nine HRs. The two most interesting bats in the Pittsburgh lineup reside on the left-hand side though. Josh Bell (158 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is continuing on his breakout pace this year, while Bryan Reynolds (154 wRC+, .180 ISO) is having a fantastic rookie year. Corey Dickerson (138 wRC+, .257 ISO) is helping to drive this offense recently as well with a 245 wRC+ over the last week.

It’s tough to stomach slotting Chris Archer into a lineup these days as he seemingly gets blown up every start. Archer does have a 5.73 ERA, but has a more respectable 4.81 xFIP, 4.84 SIERA, 23% K rate and 12.2% SwStr. SP is very thin on this slate and Archer likely won’t see as good of a matchup all year as this one, in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park facing a terrible Marlins offense. The Marlins have just a 29th ranked 76 wRC+ and 24.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They are also dead last in home runs vs. RHP by a large margin with just 36 homers across 1815 PA (2% HR rate), which is very fortunate for Archer given that he has let up ridiculous 2.41 HR/9 so far in 2019. Archer still strikes out a decent amount of batters, giving him upside at his price of $8.4k on Draftkings and $7.9k on Fanduel. As long as he can keep the ball in the yard he has a very good shot of hitting value, and is certainly an attractive GPP play given the lack of SP options on the slate. The Marlins have a 3.82 implied line versus Archer and the Pirates this afternoon.

Chris Archer has returned from the IL to allow 15 runs in 13.2 IP this month and post a -1.4 K-BB%. While his velocity is up slightly relative to April, it’s still down from last season. There may still be something going on here, but what’s not going on is quality pitching. For the season, his ERA meets all of his estimators above five (all are above six in May). The one area of improvement is an 86.2 mph aEV, but he’s still generated 9.2% Barrels/BBE with a .360 xwOBA (.366 last 30 days). With six teams currently projected above five runs tonight, perhaps Milwaukee bats fall off the radar at 4.85 runs (seventh). While xwOBA exhibits just an eight point split for Archer over the last 12 months, but actual results, LHBs have a .354 wOBA against him. Christian Yelich (188 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) needs to be seriously considered if his high price tag is going to price him out of most lineups. Mike Moustakas (110 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Yasmani Grandal (127 wRC+, .242 ISO) each exceed a 180 wRC+ and 40% hard hit rate over the last month. Ben Gamel (108 wRC+, .135 ISO) would be an interesting value play out of the leadoff spot, should he appear there again. He’s second on the team with a 64.3 Hard% over the last seven days (10 PA min.).