David Freese Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Camden is nowhere near Coors in terms of run environment, but it’s still a significant upgrade for the Dodger offense and Baltimore pitching may make it feel like Coors. Ty Blach has allowed 30 ERs and six HRs in just 24.2 innings this year, sporting a 0.8 K-BB% and xwOBA above .390. His 9.86 DRA is just a run below his ERA (10.95). This, despite having allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE on 42% 95+ mph EV and just a 36 GB%. In other words, this could be even worse. While the Dodgers are certainly more potent against RHP, a common misconception is that they aren’t a good offense against LHP and nothing could be further from the truth. They have the ninth best wRC+ in the majors against southpaws (105) with a 9.4 BB%, 17.8 HR/FB and 28.2 Hard-Soft%. The Dodgers are implied for 6.58 runs tonight, which is the second best total on the board and only one outside Coors above six runs. Batters from either side of the plate are smashing Blach for a wOBA and xwOBA above .380 this season and RHBs are above a .340 against him for his career. Key bats are certainly A.J. Pollock (148 wRC+, .185 ISO vs LHP this year), Justin Turner (141 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (154 wRC+, .329 ISO). For others, including David Freese (133 wRC+, .256 ISO), Will Smith (91 wRC+, .239 ISO), Enrique Hernandez (102 wRC+, .176 ISO), Chris Taylor (126 wRC+, .280 ISO) and perhaps Jedd Gyorko, who hasn’t played much this year, but costs the minimum on FanDuel ($3.1K on DraftKings), it would probably depend on where they ended up in the order.

Drew Pomeranz has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts, lasting less than three innings against such offensive stalwarts as the Reds, Diamondbacks and Orioles. In fact, he’s allowed three HRs even in four home starts this season and hasn’t even completed five innings since April. His ERA and DRA are both above eight this season. The Dodgers aren’t as good against LHP as RHP, but are still above average and while San Francisco is a negative power and run environment, it’s a bit more forgiving to RH power. RHBs have a .418 wOBA against Pomeranz over the last 12 months. Do not be afraid to look to look for offense in a tough west coast park with Enrique Hernandez (132 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .243 ISO) and David Freese (170 wRC+, .237 ISO).

There are a number of top-tier SP options crammed into the night slate tonight. One place we can look to find some affordable bats to pair with these starters is the Dodger’s lineup, where LAD carries a 5.18 total versus projected opener Jose Alvarez and projected long-reliever Cole Irvin. Irvin has a 5.08 xFIP on the year in 17 2/3 innings and is projected as a roughly 5.25 ERA pitcher by most projection systems. Kike Hernandez will likely leadoff for the Dodgers and is just $3.7k on Draftkings; he has a solid 118 wRC+ and .191 ISO vs. LHP since 2018. Justin Turner is projected to bat 2nd with a $4.2k price tag and a 150 wRC+ / .234 ISO vs. LHP since ’18. David Freese ($3.9k, 138 wRC+, .175 ISO) and Chris Taylor ($3.5k, 112 wRC+, .209 ISO) are also great options that project to bat in the top-5 of the LAD order. Max Muncy may hit lower in the order, but has been good versus LHP as well with a 135 wRC+ and .274 ISO since ’18 but comes with a $4.6k price tag. All of the aforementioned batters have an xwOBA greater than .370 over the past 10 days.

Eric Lauer allows too much contact in the zone (91.5%) and maybe slightly too much hard contact overall (9.2% Barrels/BBE). Otherwise, he’s been reasonably useful for the Padres to this point. However, he has had issues with RHBs (.332 wOBA, 41 Hard%, 35.8 GB% last calendar year) giving some value to a few Dodger bats, who hit LHP extremely well. Enrique Hernandez (132 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) should be in the leadoff spot again. Justin Turner (155 wRC+, .214 ISO) is still just $4K on DraftKings. David Freese (145 wRC+, .185 ISO) is still making a living hitting LHP.

Cole Hamels has been great over his last three starts (21 IP – 3 ER – 0 BB – 19 K) against a wide range of opponents (MIA, LAA, MIL). On the season, the strikeout rate is average, but he has a 57.5 GB% and 3% walk rate that have helped him navigate a pretty frightening 91.9 mph aEV. While conditions (weather, umpire) do favor Hamels at Wrigley tonight, he faces a tough opponent in the Dodgers and Justin Turner in particular. Turner has smashed LHP for a 155 wRC+, .212 ISO and 51.3 Hard% over the last calendar year. He’s a pretty good bet to make some hard contact tonight, considering Hamels’ Statcast numbers. He also costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, a tremendous value, although that price might increase his ownership. Also interesting to note that David Freese (139 wRC+, .170 ISO), batting third, costs just $2.4K on FanDuel at the same position.

The run line for the Dodgers has increased to 5.14, putting them second highest on the board currently and if weather should impact the game in Texas, they may end up one of just two teams even above five implied runs tonight. Eric Lauer has struggled with RHBs (.347 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Dodgers stack the lineup full of quality ones. Despite the extremely negative run environment, Justin Turner (180 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP this season) is the must play. Manny Machado (150 wRC+, .241 ISO), Matt Kemp (120 wRC+, .228 ISO) and David Freese (127 wRC+, .154 ISO) have all done strong work against southpaws as well.

The Dodgers are on the bottom half of the board at just 4.35 implied runs against rookie Austin Gomber in St Louis, who has a 2.93 ERA through eight starts, but underlying numbers may suggest this total is too low. Aside from a SIERA and xFIP in the high fours, Gomber has a .357 xwOBA against, 53 points than the actual number against him. He does have an 85.9 mph aEV, but a 36.6 GB% has led to 7.8% Barrels/BBE, which is slightly on the high side and dangerous against a Dodger offense producing seven batters above a league average hard hit rate (33%) against LHP this year. Four of those batters are above a 110 wRC+ and .220 ISO vs LHP this year as well: Chris Tayler (112 wRC+, .222 ISO), Justin Turner (181 wRC+, .227 ISO), Manny Machado (149 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Matt Kemp (115 wRC+, .224 ISO). David Freese adds a 125 wRC+ with just a .144 ISO with a low price tag out of the cleanup spot. A mostly very affordable Los Angeles lineup may be a bit under-valued here.

Brace yourself for these numbers Over his last seven starts, Jon Lester has a 5.6 K-BB%, 8.65 ERA, 7.38 FIP and has allowed 11 HRs. While RHBs have eight of those HRs, batters from either side are above a .430 wOBA against him. Over the last month, he has a .423 xwOBA and that's actually 48 points better than his actual number. The funny thing is his velocity has actually been up since earlier in the season. He's been terrible and is facing a Pittsburgh lineup that's actually been competent against LHP this year (22 K%, 8.5 BB%, 13 HR/FB). While the stadium does suppress RH power, it plays fairly to RH offense overall, while the Pittsburgh offense is predicated more towards discipline than power. Starling Marte can't hit LHP (60 wRC+, .155 ISO last calendar year) and has a 0 wRC+ over the last week, but he's also one of the top stolen base threats on the board against a pitcher who can't hold runners and can't keep hitters off base anymore. RHBs now have a .335 wOBA against Lester since the beginning of the 2017 season. Elias Diaz (154 wRC+, .222 ISO) and David Freese (109 wRC+, .111 ISO) both cost $2.6K or less on FanDuel in the middle of this lineup. Implied for just 4.15 runs, this is a lineup that could put a few on the board against a pitcher who seems to be a shell of his former self right now.