Doug Fister Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The first five remain the same for the Astros with Carlos Correa still out, but then Houston (5.31 implied runs) sticks a few LHBs in the second half of the order against Doug Fister. Fister traditionally struggles more against LHBs (.347 wOBA, 41.9 Hard%), but xwOBA brings up his mark against RHBs to close the gap to 11 points (.344 vs .333). It would seem every batter outside of Tony Kemp (72 wRC+, .088 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is playable with George Springer (137 wRC+, .227 ISO), Alex Bregman (133 wRC+, .186 ISO) and Jose Altuve (161 wRC+, .183 ISO) top of the line bats at their respective positions. Yulieski Gurriel (113 wRC+, .160 ISO) costs less than $4K in the cleanup spot and should bat with RBI opportunities.

Right-handed batters have a .410 wOBA against Doug Fister this season, but it seems a bit of a fluke. Not that his 10.1 K% or 16.0 Hard-Soft% against them is anything special and his 48.1 GB% is actually worse than against LHBs this year (49.4%), but the .382 BABIP by same-handed batters is going to regress. He's traditionally been stronger against RHBs (.313 wOBA, 28.4 Hard%, 51.4 GB% since last season) with LHBs generating success against him (.348 wOBA, .345 xwOBA, 42.4 Hard%), but the Mariners, implied for 4.5 runs in a negative run environment, don't offer much from that side of the plate. Just Denard Span (114 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Kyle Seager (103 wRC+, .217 ISO) among the first eight in the order. There are better overall plays and values on today's board.

Doug Fister returned to the major leagues 2017 with a fastball two miles per hour faster than when he left, which helped him to a career revival with a 15 K-BB% and 55 GB% over his last 11 starts. LHBs had a .365 wOBA and 39.6 Hard% against him overall last season. That decreased to a .335 wOBA in those last 11 starts, but with an increase in hard hit rate to 42.7%. RHBs had a 53.4 GB% and 0.8 Hard-Soft% against him last season. While that may help him against a high-powered Houston offense that is predominantly right-handed, it still doesn't make him a pitcher players want to use, especially in a park that enhances offense so much. While Brian McCann is unfortunately absent from the lineup, Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .190 ISO) is a reasonably priced bat in the second spot. According to Brooks Baseball, Fister attacked LHBs with a variety of pitches last season (Sinker, Cutter, Curve, Splitter). Reddick has a .360+ wOBA against sinkers and cutters since 2016 via PlateIQ. Derek Fisher struggled in his major league look last year (82 wRC+), but has had a 120+ wRC+ at every level of the minors he's ever played at. He bats eighth, but costs the minimum on FanDuel, one of just three LHBs in the lineup. The Astros own the highest implied run line on the board (5.22). Dallas Keuchel takes the mound on the other side of this one. It was revealed over the winter that a foot injury may have led to a decline in the second half. At his best, Keuchel excels at generating weak ground balls (66.8 GB%, .279 xwOBA, -0.7 Hard-Soft% in 2017) with an above average strikeout rate (21.4%), taking some of the sting out of a difficult park in Texas. He has the largest price differential on the board ($9.2K on FD, $11.8K on DK), but the Texas offense had just a 93 wRC+ and 24.8 K% vs LHP last year.

Doug Fister may seem an odd choice to start Game Three for the Red Sox and Houston does have the highest implied run line (5.01) by more than half a run when all four teams exceed four runs today. He's certainly not a pitcher players want to utilize (even on a two game slate), but there is some real life justification for this choice. The Astros are a predominantly right-handed lineup, at least with their better parts (four LHBs or switch hitters in today's lineup). LHBs maul Doug Fister both this year (.365 wOBA, 39.6 Hard%) and to some extent, for his career (.323 wOBA, 30.7 Hard%). But he's been able to smother RHBs to the tune of a .258 wOBA, 14.5 K-BB%, 53.4 GB%, 0.8 Hard-Soft% this year and .293 wOBA, 55.7 GB% and 1.1 Hard-Soft% for his career, far superior to Rick Porcello's numbers againsts RHBs. That said, RH Houston core bats like Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .239 ISO), Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .200 ISO) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) have been so efficient against same-handed pitching that their use in a four game slate is certainly not precluded, though they may be a bit over-valued where guys like Marwin Gonzalez (154 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) may be your top bats (both exactly $2.7K on DraftKings). Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Beltran (91 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) are also cheap enough that they may be great values too. The other thing to consider here is that in an elimination game, all hands are on deck. Doug Fister has no margin for error and may only get through the lineup once or twice. Josh Reddick could be facing a LHP in the majority of his plate appearances. The Boston bullpen for this game should be the entire staff (would they use Chris Sale in short relief?). Also, Kevin's forecast believes the weather will be a factor in this one, not from a rain standpoint, but with 15 to 30 mile per hour winds blowing out to center, making a normally power suppressing park (though an extremely positive run environment) potentially play more power friendly. Ted Barrett is listed as the Home Plate Umpire by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders. In 323 games, batters have a 19.9 K% and 7.8 BB% with him behind the dish. Boost Stats show him as a slightly hitter friendly umpire (0.98 K-Boost, 1.03 BB-Boost).

A couple of years ago, Rich Hill hooked on with the Boston Red Sox after being out of baseball for a while. Out of nowhere, he started striking batters out, had a great finish to the 2015 season, which got him a contract with Oakland and more recently, a bigger one with the Dodgers, as he remains one of the better pitchers in the league when healthy. Doug Fister is right-handed and a couple of years younger (33), but he was also out of baseball earlier this year and nobody gave a second thought when he showed up in Boston in June, nor should they considering his poor start. Something's been up recently though. Fister's line over his last four starts: 30 IP – 14 H – 5 ER – 1 HR – 8 BB – 27 K – 112 BF - 61.3 GB% - 0.0 Hard - Soft%. There's also the element of a .173 BABIP, 83.3 LOB% and 5.0 HR/FB that should all be considered unsustainable, but that's still some quality pitching. Perhaps the biggest concern is that a 24.1 K% is supported by just an 8.1 SwStr% over that span, so the suggestion is not necessarily to roster him tonight for more than $8K, even against an offense that has a 25 K% on the road, vs RHP and over the last week (they also have a 158 wRC+ over the last week), but he may no longer be someone players should automatically attack either. His struggles against LHBs in recent seasons has been widely publicized among daily fantasy players. Over this admittedly small sample four start span, LHBs have just a .244 wOBA with one HR, a 56.4 GB% and 30 Hard%.

Ten teams are projected for 4.9 runs or higher on just an eight game slate tonight with only four teams below 4.5 runs. There is certainly no shortage of pitchers to attack tonight, namely James Shields against whom both right and left-handed batters have a wOBA above .360 since last season. RHBs additionally enjoy a hard hit rate of 39% (10 points higher than LHBs). Batters from either side also have a wOBA above .350 against Matt Cain since last year, who pitches in Oakland tonight. Other pitchers can be attacked hard by batters from one side of the plate or another. LHBs have a .405 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% with just 37.9% ground balls against Doug Fister since last season, which puts most of the Cleveland lineup in high regard tonight. LHBs also have .393 wOBA (32.7 Hard%) against Ubaldo Jimenez, giving a more balanced Kansas City lineup a few very interesting bats. While Charlie Morton has an uncharacteristic reverse split this year, RHBs have a 55.6 GB% to go along with their .347 wOBA against him, though the other side of that matchup gives us Alex Cobb and his .333 wOBA against LHBs with a 35.2 Hard%. Great timing considering that the Astros have recently lose two of their top RH bats to injury. While those splits answer one question in the Cleveland lineup, which is Carlos Santana (134 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) over Edwin Encarnacion (129 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since 2016) at First Base in stacks tonight (Santana also has a 231 wRC+ over the last seven days), Justin Smoak (139 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP this year) gives him some competition for the top bat at the position and perhaps overall tonight. As for the value play bat tonight (pitching is more expensive than expected), that may be Derek Fisher (160 wRC, .222 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP), hopefully at the top of the Houston lineup.

Nelson Cruz has homered four times against Jason Vargas (41 PAs), the most of any batter against the opposing pitcher tonight, but none of those PAs have come in the Statcast era. Among those with two HRs against tonight's pitcher and at least five BBEs, Ryan Zimmerman (97.4 mph aEV, nine BBEs), A.J. Pollock (93.7 mph aEV, 11 BBEs) and Rougned Odor (93 mph aEV, 10 BBEs) have the highest exit velocities against Jacob deGrom, Alex Wood and Doug Fister. Players may see the problem there as they're dealing with the top two pitchers on the board and Odor's batted ball profile has been a mess this year (too many popups). He does have a 153 wRC+ and 44.4 Hard% over the last week though and adds three doubles to the two homers against Fister in just 16 PAs.

Doug Fister has allowed at least four runs (two not earned) in six of his last eight starts. LHBs have thrashed him since last season (.365 wOBA, 33.8 Hard%), while he generally keeps RHBs grounded. Though over the last month, RHBs have a .425 wOBA and 32.5 Hard% with just a 35 GB% as well. As a pitcher who doesn't strike out many facing an offense that strikes out the least in baseball that's a lot of opportunity for him to get in trouble tonight. Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top bat, as usual, if you can afford him. Kole Calhoun (110 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP since 2015) gets a bump in value for $3.7K on either site. Nick Buss (93 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) is an interesting punt option for below $3K on either site.

Doug Fister has just a 6.9 K-BB% with a 5.8 SwStr% closing in on the lowest mark in the majors. He’s walked five with just three strikeouts, allowing 18 runs over 12.1 innings in his last three starts. LHBs have crushed him for a .384 wOBA with 16 HRs and 36.5 Hard% and while he's not really striking out RHBs, he's kept them on the ground 53.9% of the time with a 23.4 Hard%, so it makes perfect sense Carlos Gomez is leading off with Nomar Mazara (109 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP) dropped down to eighth, right? We're all probably face palming right now. The remaining three LHBs in tonight's lineup all have a wRC+ between 110 and 120 with an ISO a bit above .200 against RHP since last season with Mitch Moreland potentially being the best value of the bunch at $3.6K on DraftKings. Rougned Odor has homered twice against Fister in 14 PAs though.