Francisco Liriano Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Twins have a 4.76 implied run line at home against Francisco Liriano despite only three batters in the lineup above a .320 xwOBA against LHP this season. One of them is Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .082 ISO vs LHP), another is Willians Astudillo, who has less than 30 PAs vs LHP, the other is Tyler Austin (126 wRC+, .310 ISO). Austin is also the only one of the first six batters in the order above a .151 ISO vs LHP this year too. How is this possible? Consider Francisco Liriano's .358 wOBA against RHBs, which makes the top two thirds of the Minnesota offense likely all playable tonight. Players are attacking the pitcher here despite the lack of potency in this lineup.

The White Sox are hitting the ball well (112 team wRC+ last seven days) and have a healthy 4.79 implied run line against a southpaw who gets smashed by RHBs (.386 wOBA) in Francisco Liriano. There should be some interest in reasonably priced bats in their lineup tonight. Matt Davidson (158 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this season) and Tim Anderson (103 wRC+, .196 ISO) are the top bats here and most expensive with ideal lineup spots. Jose Rondon has few PAs against LHP, but bats second for less than $4K on DraftKings. Also all less than $4K on DraftKings or $2.5K on FanDuel are Welington Castillo (110 wRC+, .176 ISO), Kevan Smith (178 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Ryan LaMarre (125 wRC+, .127 ISO). Of course, Castillo and Smith are both catcher eligible bats.

Only the two AL East powerhouses are above five implied runs tonight with the Yankees (5.75) holding a significant advantage on the Red Sox. It almost doesn't seem fair that they'll be facing Francisco Liriano (RHBs .380 wOBA, .404 xwOBA this season), so the Yankees have decided to only field half a lineup. Not really, but only the first four or five bats are even above an 85 wRC+ vs LHP this season. The top half of this lineup should rake, theoretically, though. Aaron Hicks (116 wRC+, .272 ISO), Giancarlo Stanton (183 wRC+, .333 ISO), Miguel Andujar (121 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Gleyber Torres (139 wRC+, .283 ISO) have all punished LHP this season, though all are at different levels on the spectrum. All are at least $4K on either site, but probably still solid values. Cleanup man Luke Voit has fewer than 30 PAs against southpaws this season with wOBA and xwOBA within a single point of .290. That's not very good, but it's a small sample size and he offers top half of the lineup exposure to the top offense on the board at a price below $4K on either site.

Four teams are above a five FIP over the last 30 days, just one of those teams has a single digit K-BB% though. The Orioles are not on the slate, unfortunately. In fact, none of those teams are, so let's focus on starters who fail to pitch deep into games. Eric Lauer is the only pitcher on the board averaging fewer than five innings per start, but has the best bullpen by K-BB (22.1%) over the last month backing him (3.37 FIP). Francisco Liriano and Robbie Ray are averaging almost exactly five innings per start. Everyone else is at 5.1 or more. To be honest, players probably don't care too much about bullpens with Liriano in New York and Ray in Los Angeles. Both are facing predominantly right-handed powerhouse lineups, though Ray does so in a much more negative run environment with a much better bullpen (3.54 FIP, 13.6 K-BB%), though the Tigers (4.43 FIP) are actually very close by K-BB (13.4%).

The Cubs (5.5) are one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight against Francisco Liriano, who has the highest xwOBA on the board (.381) among those with more than just a couple of starts. His ERA estimators are all well above five and RHBS have a .371 wOBA against him this year. So it makes perfect sense that the Cubs will bat all three of their LHBs (.227 wOBA, 55.8 GB% vs Liriano) among the first five in the order tonight, including brand new leadoff man Daniel Murphy (56 wRC+, .100 ISO vs LHP last calendar year). Perhaps Maddon is thinking of advantages later on in the game since Liriano outings generally don't last very long (averaging just five innings per start with a mediocre bullpen behind him - 4.15 FIP, 15.8 K-BB% last 30 days). Javier Baez (133 wRC+, .240 ISO) is the coveted bat here. He, David Bote (139 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Willson Contreras (128 wRC+, .175 ISO), both near the bottom of the order are the only thee batters in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ and 105 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year.

The Twins don't have a lot of competent bats against LHP over the last calendar year. In fact, Logan Forsythe bats second with just a 62 wRC+ and .092 ISO against them over that span. Yet, due to the lineup spot, his low price, and Francisco Liriano's .367 wOBA (.397 xwOBA) against RHBs since last season, he's a player with some value tonight. In fact, seven of nine batters are right-handed for the Twins (5.36 run line) tonight. Among the first five of those, only Tyler Austin (142 wRC+, .303 ISO) is above a 75 wRC+ or .140 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Many of these are small sample, including Miguel Sano's 35 wRC+ and .078 ISO (.199 xwOBA) in 59 PAs against southpaws over the last 365 days, but these are some ugly numbers and all are supported by poor Statcast numbers as well. Next to Austin (.420), Johnny Field (93 wRC+, .197 ISO) has the next highest xwOBA (.319) in the lineup against LHP over this span and he's batting eighth. The Twins may very well run it up on the Tigers tonight, but no batter besides Austin, who strikes out a ton by the way, appears to really stand out here.

It's not often the the lineup for the Royals comes close to five implied runs, but they send up eight right-handed batters against Francisco Liriano, who has allowed righties a .369 wOBA since last season. Whit Merrifield (162 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the prize here. In fact, the only other batter in the lineup above a 90 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year is the light hitting shortstop, who should never be named in a daily fantasy setting. Salvador Perez (67 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Jorge Bonifacio (88 wRC+, .173 ISO) do have some low cost upside in the top half of the lineup though.

The Rays have a moderate 4.45 implied run line, but are in a position to take advantage of a pitcher who struggles against RHBs (.361 wOBA since last season) and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The interesting bats are the middle of the order here: Daniel Robertson (124 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Wilson Ramos (119 wRC+, .165 ISO) and C.J. Cron (123 wRC+, .240 ISO), all above a 130 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week. Matt Duffy (81 wRC+, .086 ISO) may have some value ahead of them against a pitcher who often has issues with the strike zone. The environment in Tampa Bay is not very friendly towards RH power, but it's not the worst and the cost isn't high.

There are four teams in baseball whose bullpen exceeds a five FIP over the last 30 days, three of them with a K-BB less than 10%. Two of those three appear on this slate. The Royals have a five FIP exactly with a horrendous 1.7 K-BB%, but Danny Duffy is facing an offense that struggles against LHP, while he's competed six innings in five straight starts. The Tigers have a 5.53 FIP and 8.6 K-BB% over the last month and have Francisco Liriano on the mound. This would seem the favorable spot on this board. Luis Perdomo (five starts) and Jefry Rodriguez (two starts) are the only two pitchers on the board averaging less than 5.1 innings per start. The Padres (3.44 FIP, 22.5 K-BB% last 30 days) have one of the better pens in baseball, while it's been a bit of a weakness for the Nationals (4.53 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%). Chris Archer will be limited in his first start back from the DL. The Rays have a 3.64 FIP and 11.5 K-BB% over the last month, depending on what you consider their bullpen perhaps.