Hanley Ramirez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Kevin Gausman has pitched well on the surface, but the Red Sox have the top run line (5.3) on the board
The Boston Red Sox have a 5.3 implied run line nearly a half run above any other team. Kevin Gausman has allowed two runs or less in five straight starts, pitching into the eighth inning in three of his last four, but Boston is the most positive run environment on the board and he brings a 19.8 K% in against a confirmed lineup with a 20.8 K% against RHP since last season. It's difficult to dicepher what Gausman is doing other than an 86.6 LOB%, but he still has a .327 xwOBA that's near league average, but fifth best on tonight's board despite an 89.5 mph aEV and 40.8% 95+ mph EV. Considering the park and tendency towards hard contact, the top half of the Boston lineup looks to be the popular (premium players can find Projected Ownership on it's own page and in LineupHQ) and correct play, led by J.D. Martinez (152 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) as elite plays plus Andrew Benintendi (114 wRC+, .185 ISO), Hanley Ramirez (98 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Xander Bogaerts (92 wRC+, .163 ISO) as support.
Boston Red Sox have the top implied run line on the board (5.77)
The Boston Red Sox have a board high 5.77 implied run line (by nearly a half run) at home against Daniel Mengden. Mengden is not a terrible pitcher, but has a 90.1 mph aEV this season with batters from either side of the plate above a 38% hard hit rate. That's a dangerous tendency in the most positive run environment on the board in Boston. J.D. Martinez (153 wRC+, .344 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Mookie Betts (109 wRC+, .214 ISO) are the obvious bats with Hanley Ramirez (99 wRC+, .180 ISO), Mitch Moreland (113 wRC+, .241 ISO), Eduardo Nunez (123 wRC+, .180 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO) in support.
Uncomfortable At SP
They'll be chalky, but rightfully so. The Red Sox own the highest implied run total on the slate and it's crept up since the line opened. Mengden is far from the worst pitcher on this slate, but is simply overpowered in this matchup. Martinez has hit a HR in back-to-back game and remains reasonably priced on DraftKings and is the best pt/$ way to get exposure to the Red Sox. You'll have to get creative if stacking the Sox as their high price tags will make you roster some uncomfortable options at SP.
Boston has the second highest implied run line on the board (4.97) vs Manaea, who no-hit them in last meeting
The last time Sean Manaea faced the Boston Red Sox, a no-hitter was the result. Yet, the Red Sox still have a 4.97 implied run line that's second best on the board tonight for the rematch at Fenway, a much more positive run environment. Manaea proceeded to throw seven strong innings at Houston immediately following that outing, but has allowed eight runs in 11.2 innings with just eight strikeouts over his last two starts. At $9.6K on DraftKings, he would seem over-priced here with an ERA well below estimators due to a .186 BABIP and 84.3 LOB%. That does not make him a bad pitcher and still perhaps not one to go over-board against, but the primary lefty-mashers are certainly in play here. J.D. Martinez (212 wRC+, .463 xwOBA, .414 ISO, 54.4 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) seems a value at any cost against southpaws. Mookie Betts (173 wRC+, .414 xwOBA, .298 ISO) joins him above 20% Barrels/BBE overall this season. Xander Bogaerts (110 wRC+, .133 ISO) is hitting more balls in the air this season, resulting in 15.4% Barrels/BBE overall. Hanley Ramirez (92 wRC+, .215 ISO) is the only other RHB batter in the lineup above a .140 ISO against lefties since last season. Right-handed hitters have a .348 xwOBA and 41.1 GB% against Manaea since last season.
League Average
I am not sure how "sneaky" of a stack a team with the second highest implied run total (5) can really be on an eight game slate but the Red Sox may see relatively low ownership as they square off against Sean Manaea. I touched on Manaea before his last outing as a possible regression candidate - he's a very solid pitcher (3.68 SIERA) but has ran into a little luck on his way to a 2.11 ERA through eight starts. Manaea is the owner of a .186 BABIP, a 84.3 LOB% and owns one of the widest gaps between wOBA (.220) and xWOBA (.320). He has been almost exactly league average among starters in terms of strikeout rate (21.7% vs 21.9%) and almost exactly league average in generating soft contact (17.9% vs 18.1%). Long story short - despite an elite ERA, Manaea more closely resembles a league average pitcher, which is a prototype a Boston offense can jump all over.
Betts (.319 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Martinez (.421 ISO) lead stars and scrubs lineup against Sabathia
C.C. Sabathia is a weak contact generating lefty (18.0 K%, .266 xwOBA, 84.2 mph aEV) facing a stars and scrubs Boston lineup that has struggled against LHP this season overall (73 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB%, 9.8 HR/FB) despite the production of their two mega star bats. The lack of upside does make Sabathia a difficult roster in a dangerous spot. Seven strikeouts his last time out was the first time he's been above four this year. Dominant against lefties (.265 xwOBA), right-handed batters have put up nearly league average production against him since last season (.315 xwOBA). As usual, the high priced Mookie Betts (147 wRC+, .319 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (217 wRC+, .421 ISO) are the only two in the lineup who can combine a wRC+ above 90 with an ISO above .200 against LHP over the last calendar year. Xander Bogaerts (104 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Hanley Ramirez (83 wRC+, .197 ISO) are otherwise closest. Bogaerts has increased his fly ball rate more than five percentage points this year. Boston bats are extremely expensive though, against a pitcher who does not allow a lot of hard contact. The strength of the Yankee bullpen needs to be taken into consideration here as well.
High Upside Lineup
Cole Hamels has rediscovered some of his old strikeout ability with an impressive 26.4% strikeout rate after falling to 17% last season. But, in order to ramp those K's back up, he’s had to sacrifice all of his soft contact ability. He has allowed a frightening 48% hard hit rate this season, and there’s no way he’s going to be able to keep up a .271 BABIP against righties with this much hard contact. There's enough contact throughout this Red Sox lineup to offset his strikeouts and enough right-handed power to make him pay for the hard hits. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are the prime plays here, followed by Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts. You can fill in with cheaper bats later in the lineup.
Bartolo Colon has a .297 xwOBA and career high 51.6 GB%, but the Red Sox still have a 5.11 implied run line
While Bartolo Colon has ERA estimators in the mid-threes and a .297 xwOBA (4.4% Barrels/BBE), possibly due to a career high 51.6 GB%, a matchup with the Red Sox in Texas seems absolutely frightening for a pitcher who still has just a 17.8 K% and 43 Hard%. Vegas has lofty expectations from this Boston lineup as well (5.11 implied run line). Since last season, batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA right around .350 with actual wOBAs a bit higher. Mookie Betts (115 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and J.D. Martinez (150 wRC+, .332 ISO) are the obvious plays. Andrew Benintendi (113 wRC+, .177 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (101 wRC+, .152 ISO), Hanley Ramirez (104 wRC+, .178 ISO), and Rafael Devers (88 wRC+, .185 ISO) may get a small bump in a park that plays as a similar run environment to Fenway, but may be a bit more power friendly overall.
Boston has the second highest implied run line (5.21) in Texas, but have struggled against southpaws (67 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB%)
The Red Sox have the second highest Vegas run line on the board tonight (5.21) in Texas against Mike Minor, but they've really struggled against LHP this year (67 wRC+, 18.6 K-BB%, 9.4 Hard-Soft%) and Minor hasn't been that bad, especially in Texas, where he's allowed just four runs in 15 innings with 18 strikeouts. He has a 12.3 SwStr% underlying a 21.4 K%, which suggests some additional upside, while his 2.83 DRA is a run and a half below his 4.33 ERA. One of the negatives we do see is a dangerous 90.2 mph aEV. Minor has dominated lefties (.204 wOBA since 2017), while exactly 100 points higher against right-handers (still better than league average), though most of that work came out of the Kansas City bullpen last year. Still, a look at the Boston lineup, after excluding Rafael Devers for being left-handed and having an xwOBA 81 points lower than his actual against southpaws, the only two batters who have been proficient against lefties since 2017 are the ones players expect: J.D. Martinez (217 wRC+, .481 xwOBA, .453 ISO, 54.9 Hard%) and Mookie Betts (163 wRC+, .285 ISO). Both have a wRC+ above 250 and hard hit rate above 40% over the last week. Hanley Ramirez has a .183 ISO against lefties, but just a 77 wRC+. The one other person to look out for is Xander Bogaerts (107 wRC+, .113 ISO), who is well below his career GB/FB ratio this year (1.43 vs 1.12). At a cost below $6K, Minor can be a sneaky SP2 piece on DraftKings, if paying up for Manaea.
Jakob Junis allowed five HRs in his last start & Xander Bogaerts (GB rate down 16.3%) may be joining the Fly Ball Revolution
The Red Sox are one of three teams above five implied runs, facing Jakob Junis, who does have some talent, but also throws too many fat pitches. He's allowed eight HRs over his last three starts, five in his last one alone. Fenway is more run than power friendly, but they've got a few guys who can take the ball deep even without Mookie Betts around. J.D. Martinez (151 wRC+, .421 xwOBA, .337 ISO, 49.5 Hard% vs RHP since 2017) is the prime candidate. While Junis has no platoon split in his career, RHBs have a 53 point increase in their xwOBA (.371) against him. Mitch Moreland (107 wRC+, .223 ISO) actually has the second highest ISO against RHP in the lineup. Don't worry, Junis's xwOBA against LHBs (.335) was well above his actual wOBA as well. Hanley Ramirez (108 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Andrew Benintendi (113 wRC+, .179 ISO) are above average as well. One other interesting note is that Xander Bogaerts (104 wRC+, .154 ISO) may be finally joining the Fly Ball Revolution. He's hitting fewer ground balls (-16.3%) through 54 PAs and has a .333 ISO overall this year.