Jason Heyward Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Since joining the Brewers mid-season, Gio Gonzalez has mostly been a serviceable pitcher with a 4.34 ERA / 4.71 xFIP and 11% K-BB. However, he has run into some trouble of late, posting a 5.87 ERA, 5.82 SIERA, .380 xwOBA allowed, 5.5% K-BB and 1.96 HR/9 over the past 30 days. Gio’s had some control problems given his 14.7% BB rate and 29.5% zone rate over the past 30 days. He’s also had a very hard time getting righties out, allowing a .411 xwOBA to RHB over the past month. The Cubs have a 106 wRC+ over the past month and have some options to choose from in their projected lineup today: Kris Bryant (.424 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nick Castellanos (.411), Javier Baez (.360), Anthony Rizzo (.335), Jonathan Lucroy (.290), Jason Heyward (.265) and Ian Happ (.246) are all potential options. Rizzo has swung a hot bat of late as he has a .481 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks. Heyward isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he’s projected to leadoff and is decently affordable across the industry. Happ and Lucroy are affordable options as well, but have struggled this year and will hit towards the bottom of the order. The Brewers have a 5th worst 4.93 SIERA from their bullpen over the past month, further sweetening the matchup here. They currently have a 4.89 implied total which feels a bit low.

Conditions suggest that tonight could be a high scoring affair at Wrigley, but do you know what else suggests some runs will be put on the board? That would be Tyler Beede’s Statcast numbers. Despite calling one of the most negative run environments in baseball home, Beede has allowed at least four runs in five straight starts with eight HRs and a .371 xwOBA over that span. His 91.1 mph aEV and 45% 95+ mph EV on the season are both worst on the board by a decent margin. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The 6.26 implied run line for the Cubs is exceeded by only one other team tonight. Each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup for Chicago exceed both a 105 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, but the top value in the lineup could be Jason Heyward (119 wRC+, .209 ISO) if in the leadoff spot. He’s the lowest priced batter among those projected seven at just $4K on DraftKings. Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .236 ISO) is the top overall bat in this spot.

The Wrigley winds will be blowing out tonight, which puts Chris Bassitt in a very different environment than he’s used to in Oakland. With decent peripherals (13.8 K-BB%), Bassitt has kept his 3.84 ERA more than a half run below estimators due to quality contact management (15.1 IFFB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), projecting a .303 xwOBA that supports his actual mark (.297) and ERA. The Cubs have an 18.4 HR/FB vs RHP though and a 5.6 implied run line that’s third best on tonight’s board despite Bassitt holding batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and .310 xwOBA over the last calendar year. Conditions give Cubs’ bats substantial value tonight with only Javier Baez (106 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) above a $4.1K price tag on DraftKings and only he and Anthony Rizzo (149 wRC+, .229 ISO) above $4K on FanDuel. Rizzo actually costs less on DK than FD tonight. Jason Heyward (118 wRC+, .195 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (113 wRC+, .196 ISO) would be strong values in the top two spots in the lineup.

With a good amount of stack options on the slate, it’s possible the Cubs are going overlooked despite being in a great run environment versus a mediocre pitcher. Chase Anderson has mixed in some good outings this year and he’s actually allowed 2 or less earned runs in 6 straight starts. However, he hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of lineups in those starts and has a 5.05 xFIP over that time frame. Anthony Rizzo (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Robel Garcia (.363). Kyle Schwarber (.363), Kris Bryant (.359), Willson Contreras (.345), Jason Heyward (.339) and Javier Baez (.335) are all great options tonight. Robel Garcia is leading off and is a nice value on both major sites. Rizzo has been the Cubs’ hottest hitter with a .374 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Schwarber with a .351 xwOBA. Most middle of the order Cubs bats will cost about $5k on Draftkings and $4k on Fanduel, but they project to see low ownership and have a good shot at surpassing their 4.75 implied total tonight.

Anthony DeSclafani has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts, against some pretty powerful offenses as well (Astros, Brewers, Cubs) and owns a solid 17.1 K-BB% vs RHP with most estimators meeting his 4.26 ERA (besides a 5.17 DRA). However, under the right conditions, DeSclafani can be a useful target for daily fantasy players hunting HRs. That’s because he’s allowed 12 to LHBs this year already, while they own a .407 wOBA against him over the last calendar year. He’s probably not that bad, but a .358 xwOBA, 46 Hard% and 31.2 GB% are still plenty good enough to play some left-handed power here. Kyle Schwarber (103 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Anthony Rizzo (163 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Jason Heyward (114 wRC+, .175 ISO) are all above average hitters expected to be in the lineup tonight. Conditions don’t appear to be as favorable as last night when the home offense disappointed, but weather isn’t expected to be a negative here either.

Luis Castillo and Kyle Hendricks are two of the top three contact managers on the board by aEV (86.3 mph & 86.4 mph respectively). Further in Castillo’s favor are a 56.3 GB% and 28.8 K% vs Hendricks 41.7 GB% and 21.5%. These things matter quite a bit on a night where a decent wind blowing out to center is expected to greatly boost offense. Where Hendricks has a major advantage is in his 4.8 BB% vs Castillo’s 12.3% that’s worst on the board among those with more than two starts. Hendricks has additionally struggled and not gone more than 4.1 innings in any of his last three starts. It’s at least fairly clear that pitchers shouldn’t be used in this game. Daily fantasy players are not even giving up much upside with Castillo due to Chicago’s 108 wRC+, 9.9 BB% and 18.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Offensively, the worst split among these two pitchers over the last calendar year is the .317 wOBA/.312 xwOBA LHBs have put up against Castillo. This makes Kyle Schwarber (100 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Anthony Rizzo (160 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Jason Heyward (112 wRC+, .176 ISO) key bats, none more than $4K on DraftKings tonight.