Jeff Locke Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

There's very little useful Statcast information on tonight's BvP matchups. Not a single player with more than seven BBEs since 2015 (when the Statcast era began) has an aEV above 90.1 mph. We do have HRs though. Despite just an 84.8 mph aEV on 15 recorded BBEs, Anthony Rizzo has homered four times against Jeff Locke with seven total extra-base hits in 30 PAs. With only three Statcast recorded BBEs between them, Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips have a combined seven HRs against Matt Cain. Kemp and Cain faced each other often during the former's Dodger days. Both, along with Phillips are lesser quality players now, but Cain (2.8 SwStr% last five starts) may have fallen the farthest from his All-Star days. On just six BBEs, Edwin Encarnacion has a 100.2 mph aEV against Wade Miley with two HRs and two doubles in 17 PAs, as if there weren't already enough motivation to load up on that matchup.

An unprecedented three pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana, and Robbie Ray) project for eight strikeouts or more via the Daily K Predictor tonight. Quintana would be the surprise there with just a 7.8 SwStr% this year and 15 runs (four HRs) over his last seven innings, but the Rays have a 27.5 K% vs LHP. None of those three are even the top overall projected pitcher tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections), as that falls on Chris Archer (not Max Scherzer) facing the White Sox. Archer has struck out one-third of batters on a 14.3 SwStr% over the last month, while the White Sox have a 17.2 K-BB% vs RHP. In addition, you have Jacob deGrom with a 31.5 K% and 15.2 SwStr% (both second on the slate) facing a Texas offense a Texas offense with a 31.8 K% over the last week. The Padres also have a 32.3 K% over the last week (facing Ray's 30.2 K%). James Paxton makes it a fourth pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate on this slate (30.2%, 14.3 SwStr%), while we also have David Paulino (47.1 K% in one start), Dinelson Lamet (38.1 K% through two starts) and Jeff Locke (35 K% in one start) finding rare ground in small sample sizes as well. In fact, only 11 of tonight's 30 starters have a strikeout rate below 20% this year.

Inexplicably, a predominantly RH lineup with Paul Goldschmidt in the middle has been struggling against LHP this season (78 wRC+, 15.6 K-BB%). Perhaps it's Goldschmidt's 100 wRC+ and .154 ISO that's responsible for a large portion of that. A 52.4 Hard% tells a better story going forward, but the cost remains steep. He's the second best overall bat according to RotoGrinders Player Projections. The team has also struggled to a 76 wRC+ on the road with a 25.1 K%. Jeff Locke makes his first start for Miami after rehabbing from a shoulder injury. In four minor league starts (all below AAA), he struck out 22 of 81 batters with just two walks and two HRs. He has just a 7.4 career K-BB% in over 600 innings, so 20 innings below AAA is not going to change our minds. Either Nick Ahmed (160 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP this year) or Chris Owings (117 wRC+, .158 ISO vs LHP this year) are solid SS options tonight in the top half the lineup with Ahmed more likely to get you to Greinke at a lower cost. Yasmani Tomas destroyed LHP last season, but has just a 51 wRC+ and .173 ISO against them this year, though, like Goldschimdt, he has been hitting the ball hard (39.4%), but has only been getting in the air 27.3% of the time.

There's no debating that Locke (5.12 SIERA) has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. He does get what seems to be an exploitable matchup against a Braves offense that has been brutal against left-handed pitching as a whole this season (73 wRC+, .282 wOBA, .103 ISO). However, with the acquisition of Matt Kemp (167 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .340 ISO vs LHP), Atlanta suddenly becomes that much more formidable against left-handed pitching. Locke has been horrible against righties (.371 wOBA, 5.07 xFIP) so that's definitely where we will want to attack him in this matchup. Outside of Kemp, Gordon Beckham (112 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .189 ISO vs LHP) and Anthony Recker are the top stacking options given their price tags and typically shallow positions. Locke has been better against lefties, but Freddie Freeman (141 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .214 ISO vs LHP) could be a nice contrarian option at first base given the success he has had against left-handed pitching.

Jeff Locke pitches in a great park for a lefty, but has struck out three or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, which puts players completely at the mercy of a league average batting ball and contact profile, lacking any upside. Only five of his 14 HRs have come at home though, so Brewers bats don't look very attractive either in a park that punishes RH power. While Chris Carter (.338 ISO vs LHP this season) may be able to overcome that, it's questionable whether that's worth $3.6K or more on either site. He's a streaky bat too with just a 4 wRC+ since the break. Jonathan Villar (143 wRC+ vs LHP this season) relies more on speed than power, he costs $4.8K on DraftKings for a lineup projected to score just four runs. Ryan Braun (164 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP this season) is the best all around hitter here and may be most likely to worth more than his moderate $4.2K price tag on DK as RHBs have a .333 wOBA against Locke since last season. This looks more like a good spot to fade though.

Jeff Locke has struck out three or fewer in eight straight starts and has a 4.5 K-BB% on the season. Both left and right-handed batters have a .326 wOBA against him since last season, but LHBs have a much lower 18.6 Hard% (RHBs 31.3 Hard%). This really only takes the 8th place hitter off the board. Matt Carpenter (118 wRC+, .204 ISO since last season) hits lefties well, but carries a high cost tonight, as does Aledmys Diaz (101 wRC+, .149 ISO vs LHP) batting 2nd. Stephen Piscotty (189 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP this season) is your top play here and might be the top value in the lineup at $3.5K on FanDuel, while Matt Holliday (97 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP this season) has a 100 mph aEV on his four most recent batted balls against Locke, but all RHBs are playable here.

Jeff Locke has struck out three or fewer in nine of his last 10. The A’s have just an 18.2 K% vs LHP with a 15.5 HR/FB. Although he hasn't been pounded in all of his starts and Oakland is not a positive run scoring environment, the A's have been hot (139 wRC+ last seven days) and have some proficient bats against LHP. Batters from both sides have a .327 wOBA against Locke since last season, though RHBs (31.3 Hard%) have hit him much harder than LHBs (18.9 Hard%). All RH bats are in play here as they all have a wRC+ above 100 since last season vs LHP with at least a league average ISO (143 or better). Lowrie has struggled this year, but gains value in the leadoff spot, especially for under $3K on FanDuel. Jake Smolinksi (160 wRC+, 286 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be the hidden value for just $2.7K on FanDuel, but runs the risk of being PH for more than other batters. Valencia (153 wRC+, .216 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Davis (106 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are the top, but most expensive bats. Marcus Semien (149 wRC+, .222 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has really turned into an unexpected lefty masher at a still affordable $3.3K on FanDuel. Oakland bats are a bit more expensive, but still reasonable on DraftKings.

First off, Hernandez crushes left-handed pitchers for his cheap price on most sites, sporting an ISO of 0.273 this year against LHP. Secondly, the left-handed pitcher he is facing tonight is Jeff Locke. Locke has a an xFIP of 5.21 against RHBs, striking out a putrid 11.5% of RHBs faced. Thirdly, while still a below average park for RHBs, PNC Park (0.969 on RotoGrinders Park Factors tool) is still an upgrade over Dodger Stadium (0.943 on RotoGrinders Park Factors tool). This third aspect of playing away from Dodgers Stadium also increases the chances Hernandez will get an extra at-bat in the top of the 9th, even if the Dodgers have a lead.

Jeff Locke has allowed a wOBA just above .330 to batters from both sides of the plate since last season, though RHBs have hit the ball much harder (30.9 Hard%) than LHBs (17.7 Hard%). Despite that, the Giants are going with a mostly left-handed lineup in a park that kills RH power. Angel Pagan (108 wRC+ vs LHP this season) bats leadoff and may be a better value for $2.6K on FanDuel tonight, as both Denard Span and Matt Duffy are OUT. Buster Posey (142 wRC+, .186 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the top bat in this lineup, but may be unaffordable if paying up for pitching. Ramiro Pena is your punt play, eligible at 2B, 3B, and or SS depending on your site of choice for just $2.2K batting 6th.

Jeff Locke (3.2 K-BB%) has allowed a similar wOBA to righties (.328) and lefties (.336) since last season, but has held LHBs to a 17.8 Hard%. The Mets are really banged up, but can still put some RHBs in there against him. Yoenis Cespdes has clobbered LHP this year (211 wRC+, .341 ISO) and is a top overall bat. Asdrubel Cabrera is an average bat vs LHP (107 wRC+), but is a SS hitting cleanup for less than $4K tonight. Juan Lagares has likewise been average vs southpaws this season (101 wRC+), but bats leadoff for just $3.2K on DK and much less on FD ($2.3K). Wilmer Flores hasn't done much this year, but costs just $2.4K on FD and has a 145 wRC+ and .238 ISO vs LHP since last season. Middle infielder Matt Reynolds has had just a few ABs, but costs the minimum on each site.