Jered Weaver Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The magician known as Jered Weaver has somehow continued to string together quality starts despite allowing an astronomical 2.74 HR/9 through his first four outings. He's set to take the mound on the road against a powerful Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that is littered with power and speed from both sides of the plate up and down the lineup. Despite a solid ERA to this point in the season, the dreaded regression monster is bound to catch up to Weaver and his .182 BABIP and 91.6% LOB% through four starts. At this stage of his career, Weaver is nothing more than a low strikeout pitcher (13.4% K% in 2016) that allows a ton of flyballs (48.2% FB% in 2016) which, in turn, leads to well above average home run rates (1.87 HR/9 in 2016). The Diamondbacks are the clear top offense to target on tonight's microscopic 4-game slate, evidenced by their 6.2 runs implied team total. This should lead to some massive ownership and begs the question whether they are worth a fade in tournaments in hopes Weaver is able to keep the magic going for at least one more start. Ownership concerns aside, there are several hitters from this Arizona squad that are elite options for all formats, headlined by Jake Lamb (132 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Paul Goldschmidt (129 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .193 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and A.J. Pollock (111 wRC+, .348 wOBA vs RHP since 2016). They are closely followed by teammates David Peralta (108 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Chris Herrmann (.199 ISO vs RHP since 2016) if in need of a salary-saving option at the catcher position.

Jered Weaver is coming off of an improbable pitching performance against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in his last start, allowing just two earned runs and striking out five in six innings of work. While that performance was impressive for the washed up Weaver, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this soft-tossing right-hander each and every time he takes the mound. Weaver has actually been overachieving, if you want to call it that, in the strikeout department thus far, posting a 15.6% strikeout rate compared to 13.5% and 13.4% the past two full seasons. Where Weaver really struggles is in the home run department (1.87 HR/9 in 2016), which is due in part to his massive 48.2% flyball rate. The Braves lack a little pop in the lineup without Matt Kemp available, but Freddie Freeman (160 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .294 ISO vs RHP) still remains one of, if not, the top hitting option on the slate given his dominance against right-handed pitching last season and to this point in 2017. The rest of the Braves bats like Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis (114 wRC+, .345 wOBA vs RHP in 2016/17), and Brandon Phillips (135 wRC+, .372 wOBA) are better utilized as part of an Atlanta stack in tournaments rather than one-offs given their dearth of individual power upside, though anyone can realistically any one of them can get a hold of one against Weaver.

Freddie Freeman is followed by a pair of Cubs (Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant) atop the RotoGrinders projections tonight. While all are great bats, off to strong starts (via wRC+), Freeman clearly has the better matchup against Jered Weaver. Chase Anderson hasn't been bad in his first two starts. Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is the only batter projected for more than 2.5 points per $1K of salary on DraftKings and should hit at the top of the lineup against A.J. Griffin (.411 wOBA, 44.5 Hard%, 27.6 GB% vs LHBs since 2015). Joyce is joined on FanDuel by potential top values in J.T. Realmuto (79 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP since 2016) against Ariel Miranda (.303 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% vs RHBs career) and Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP), who is almost the minimum against Lance Lynn (.352 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015). Top pitchers are projected to be the top priced ones with Salazar and Lackey followed closely by Ray, though Charlie Morton and his increased velocity is projected for the most value on either site. He can be had for right around $6.5K in both places. Players can see projected point totals for all players on the RotoGrinders Projections page.

Eric Thames is tearing the cover off the ball upon his return to the majors. He's coming off a seven day period with a 330 wRC+ and 47.1 Hard%. While facing one of tonight's top pitchers, John Lackey has allowed average production to RHBs since 2015 (.315 wOBA, 31.3 Hard%). Lonnie Chisenhall (302 wRC+) is the only other batter above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (min. 10 PAs). Aaron Hicks (298 wRC+) may not even be in the lineup against a LHP (37 wRC+ since 2016). Jose Altuve (289 wRC+) is finally heating up after a slow start. Among the five hottest bats, Jose Ramirez (288 wRC+, 35 Hard%) is the only one besides Thames with a hard hit rate above 27% though. Adding a sixth bat gets us to Ender Inciarte (282 wRC+, 36.8 Hard%), who has a top matchup against Jered Weaver tonight.

Small sample size king Eric Thames leads all batters (min. 30 PA) with a 232 wRC+ (.455 ISO, 54.2 Hard%) since 2015 against the handed type pitcher he is facing tonight and is facing one of tonight's most expensive pitchers (John Lackey). However, Giancarlo Stanton (178 wRC+, .406 ISO) nearly matches him for power against LHP in a much larger sample. He's facing Ariel Miranda (35.6 Hard% vs RHBs career). Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .268 ISO) makes the top five no matter who he's facing (Charlie Morton), but Martin Prado (161 wRC+, .142 ISO) follows his teammate (though with much less power). Freddie Freeman (156 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top five and is sure to be extremely popular against Jered Weaver (.348 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015).

That Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon top the RotoGrinders projections at just under 14 points a piece is not a surprise in a matchup at home with Jered Weaver, but Manny Machado topping the FanDuel projections (vs Drew Pomeranz), as the only player above 11 points might be today. Not because Machado isn't great, but because the Rockies are facing Jered Freakin Weaver in Coors! Among pitchers, Jameson Taillon is a surprise atop the DraftKings board. He's the only pitcher projected to reach 20 points, though Cole Hamels and Gio Gonzalez come close. Although, Gonzalez leads FanDuel projections overall, Taillon still shows up as the only pitcher projected for more than four points per $1K of salary (Pt/$/K). Value bats appear to be Aaron Hill (2.87 Pt/$/K) on DraftKings, facing Robbie Ray at home for just $2.2K (if he plays) and Mitch Haniger (4.38 Pt/$/K) at home in Seattle against a potentially tough righty (Joe Musgrove), but it's difficult to ignore a minimum priced batter sitting near the top of the lineup.

As if players needed an added excuse to stack against Jered Weaver, RHBs have a .352 wOBA (35.3 Hard%) against him since 2015. That's the second worst platoon split on the board tonight (100 PA min.) and his .347 wOBA (29.8 Hard%) against LHBs isn't far behind. There are ample reasons to stack against Weaver with a Colorado lineup implied to score nearly seven runs tonight! The pitcher with the worst splits though is Wily Peralta, against whom LHBs have a .372 wOBA (34.3 Hard%) and RHBs have a .351 wOBA (31.1 Hard%) since 2015, but there may be less optimism in attacking him. Toronto has few batters who can take advantage of issues against lefties (Kendrys Morales 115 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but Peralta has also shown some improvement himself, holding all batters to a .295 wOBA over his last 10 starts last season, though his improvement was more against RHBs (.240 wOBA vs .344). Morales still appears to be an interesting play, but with the slider potentially a weapon now, it makes the outlook for RHBs (and potentially a predominantly RH Toronto lineup) a bit more bleak.

Jered Weaver has been living dangerously over the last few weeks, giving up a ridiculously high 60% fly ball percentage. This kind of batted-ball profile usually is reserved for high strikeout pitchers who can rack up Ks on any given night, so Weaver's 23% k rate over that period is probably why his SIERA has "only" been 4.69. On the year, Weaver is allowing 40% hard contact to RHB, which is good news for Rangers RHBs who will be batting in Arlington tonight. Globe Life Park in Arlington is about league average for home runs for RHB, which is bad news for Weaver who has pitched half of his games in Las Angeles (0.92 for home run power for RHB according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool). Adrian Beltre profiles as the perfect hitter to use against Weaver, considering that over the last week, he hit the ball hard in 40% of at-bats that ended in contact,struck out only 12% of the time, and elevated the ball 44% of the time.

Jered Weaver has the lowest ground ball rate in baseball (27.6%) and gives up a ton of hard-hit fly balls. Occasionally, he puts together a solid start when those fly balls find gloves instead of seats. It’s hard to stack against Weaver because teams rarely string hits together, but you will almost certainly see a few home runs from the Blue Jays here. Their power bats are great one-off plays in this spot, and we can take a chance on a couple of them in tournaments hoping to pick-and-choose the home runs correctly. Josh Donaldson (154 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .273 ISO vs RHP) returned from injury last night and was locked in, so feel free to fire him up as normal. The Blue Jays have power up and down the lineup, but Edwin Encarnacion (137 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .276 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Bautista (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP) are the most likely candidates to jack a home run or two off of Weaver outside of Donaldson.

Only two pitchers have allowed more HRs than Jered Weaver's 32 this season, but he's allowed just one to Oakland in 19.2 innings, partially because of the negative power environment in both parks, but also because the A's have just an 88 wRC+ and 10.1 HR/FB vs RHP. Those numbers become even worse at home (82 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB) and even worse than that over the last week (22 wRC+, 0.0 HR/FB - no HRs!). None the less, if forced to choose a side here, it will be with the offense. Batters from either side have a wOBA just above .350 against Weaver since last season, while RHBs have actually hit the ball hard more often (34.9%). That's perfect because the batter we want is Khris Davis (122 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is RH and also their top hitter vs RHP. He's also the most expensive bat in this lineup by far. Everyone else is below $3.5K on Draftkings or $3K or less on FanDuel, bringing some value to most every bat in this lineup and making for an interesting stacking opportunity for an offense projected for 4.7 runs. Danny Valencia and Stephen Vogt both have two career HRs off of Weaver, but both have been perfectly league average hitters with league average power against RHP this season.