Johnny Cueto Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Johnny Cueto was ineffective in 25 starts with blister issues last season. He dominated the Dodgers for seven one-hit innings (four strikeouts, no walks) in his first start of 2018. Ten of 17 batted balls were on the ground with just 23.5% hard contact. Although ownership projections are not yet available (Premium subscribers check the Projected Ownership page later), a reasonable assumption might be for Cueto to be the most popular pitcher on the five game slate. He's facing a Seattle lineup not completely without thunder, but lacking Nelson Cruz in an extremely pitcher friendly park. A middle of the order consisting of Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since last season), Mitch Haniger (145 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Kyle Seager (104 wRC+, .196 ISO) may be a bit troubling, though nobody else really has a strong track record against right-handed pitchers. Only the Padres (3.34) currently carry an implied run line lower than the Mariners (3.54).

The Rockies have a 6.58 implied run line that's more than a run above any other team tonight. While their 82 wRC+ against RHP is not encouraging, neither is Johnny Cueto's 8% Barrels/BBE with a hard hit rate above 32% to batters from either side of the plate this season. Of course, Charlie Blackmon (153 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP), but also any competent hitter against RHP from either side of the plate is in play here, including Nolan Arenado (97 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Mark Reynolds (117 wRC+, .246 ISO). Seven more teams on a 12 game slate are between 4.84 and 5.63 runs tonight, including the visiting team at Coors tonight, the Giants at 5.42 runs (third). Kyle Freeland has had an odd and unpredictable rookie season. He's gone no more than six innings since the break and only that many three times despite increase in strikeout rate (22.1% over the last month). His GB rate is only 40% with 41.3 Hard% over that span. LHBs have a .284 wOBA, 26.9% K-BB%, 21.4 GB% and 41.2 Hard% over that span. RHBs have a .386 wOBA, 4.3 K-BB%, 46.7 GB%, 41.3 Hard%. How that pertains to figuring out which San Francisco Giants might be useful tonight is a great question. The Boston Red Sox are sandwiched in between the two with an implied run line of 5.63, though there are some reasons for caution here. Opposing pitcher Joe Biagini struck out 10 in his last outing and despite some struggles, does have a 57.7 GB% this year. The weather forecast is not very optimistic about conditions in Boston today either. Cleveland is projected for 5.35 runs and has a team 153 wRC+ that leads the majors over the last week. Reynaldo Lopez has some talent and a 22.5 K% through 60 major league innings, but in his first three starts this year (16 innings), he has a slate high 91.2 mph aEV (tied with Andrew Moore) and 11.6% Barrels/BBE.

There are a lot of unknowns on the mound tonight. Players would be justified by starting and ending their daily fantasy research with Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the Padres most times (24 K% at home and vs LHP). Even though he struck out eight through five innings in a rehab start, he faced just 16 batters and a Twitter search reveals he's likely to be limited to 75 pitches tonight. That's too small a workload for the cost against any team, even in the best spot imaginable. The Dodgers have absolutely no reason in the world to push him. Johnny Cueto hasn't started a major league game in a month and a half. Over his last four starts, he totaled 13 strikeouts with 16 walks. In three rehab starts, he didn't finish the fourth inning once. His last one was in High A ball. He allowed eight runs (five earned). Reynaldo Lopez is a prospect of some note, who has even had some major league success so far (21.9 K% in 54.1 IP). However, he returns after a two week DL stint with a back issue and without a rehab start.

It's an ugly slate of pitchers this afternoon, which is highlighted by six of eight teams currently sitting with projected run totals above 5. Wacha tops our projections model despite his mediocre strikeout rate, 9.7% SwStr%, and 4.21 SIERA. Vegas has provided Miami the lowest implied total on the board (4.09) and without Stanton in the lineup, their starters have combined for a .149 ISO and .341 wOBA this season while their strikeout rate is a solid 18.1%. Johnny Cueto, who's checks in as our SP3, has a more favorable strikeout matchup with the Tigers (22.4%), but they have a .174 ISO and Vegas has given them a 5.34 projected run total. Despite a cheaper price, Mike Montgomery is our SP2 this afternoon. He'll square off against a Thames-less Milwaukee squad that has a combined 22.2% k% this season against LHP and a 4.15 implied total. Although their ISO is a solid .175, they have a high 50.2% GB% according to PlateIQ. These three appear to be the top options on a tough pitching slate. Anibal Sanchez could also be an interesting option if looking to differentiate in tournaments - the Giants have a combined ISO of .137, .314 wOBA, and 18.2% K%. It's not a tremendous strikeout spot as Sanchez has a 20.6% K% and 9.1% SwStr% this year, but none of the matchups on the early slate are great in that regard. He's definitely a risky bet though, even against a weak lineup, as he's posted a 37.9% FB% according to PlateIQ and he's allowed a 37.9% Hard% this year. Sanchez is a better deal on DK, where he comes in second in points-per-dollars.

Jacoby Ellsbury has homered four times (34 PA) against Rick Porcello. While there is some out-dated information there, he does have a 90.6 mph aEV on 10 Statcast recorded BBE in this matchup. Porcello has allowed five HRs this season, but four were in one start. He has struck out Ellsbury just three times. No other batter on the night slate has homered more than twice against the pitcher they oppose tonight. Among those with at least 10 recorded BBE, Justin Turner has the highest exit velocity (94.2 mph aEV - 14 BBE) against Johnny Cueto. He has one HR and two doubles in the matchup, striking out just two times in 22 PA. Players aren't otherwise going to get a lot of help out of BvP information today.

Projected ownership numbers like Eric Thames best on DraftKings, but Matt Carpenter as the top 1B option on FanDuel, where each are severely under-priced. There are a plethora of viable 1B options tonight and perhaps Freddie Freeman (vs Jeremy Hellickson), projected for less than 5% ownership on either site, makes for a nice alternative. Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander are expected to be the most popular pitchers, but tonight might be a good night to fade the mound chalk, as both have had their struggles this year and there are several cheaper arms with some decent strikeout upside. Sean Manaea currently projects at 5% or below on either site. A really contrarian move might be to consider Johnny Cueto (13.5 SwStr%) at a much reduced price against an extremely cold Colorado lineup in an extremely cold park tonight. Premium subscribers can find many more pivots off popular plays on our Projected Ownership page.

While Kevin has noted slight threats of rain in several spots tonight, conditions in New York (vs Washington) appear specifically difficult for hitters with winds blowing in from left at 15 mph and temperatures barely 50 degrees. With Cespedes and Zimmerman out, there's little RH power in the game to begin with, but any that's left takes a step down. Temperatures are rather low in most spots tonight, be especially Colorado, where it's expected to be in the low 40s. Perhaps, with two good pitchers on the mound, this would be a good night to fade Coors (breeze blowing in from right 10 mph). Domed stadiums appear to be the best conditions for offense tonight and probably even better if the roof is open in Arizona. Although a pitcher's park, it should be noted that the warmest spot tonight is in Los Angeles, where the game between the Blue Jays and Angels is said to kick off above 80 degrees. With Mat Latos and Alex Meyer on the mound tonight, it could play more batter friendly than normal. Be sure to look for Kevin's evening update, the final word on all weather related game risk.