Jose Bautista Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Power and Speed
While Steven Matz has been consistently good the second half of the season his stolen base numbers (-3 rSB) and home run numbers (1.54 HR/9; 17.1% HR/FB) remain high because of how terrible he has been at points this year. Matz will always be in the conversation of pitchers to stack against whenever he takes the mound simply because he struggles in the two areas we want to target most when stacking a team: power and speed. The Phillies don't have a bunch of speedsters on their team but they showed us earlier this season that even their non-baserunners will run when given the right matchup as Philadelphia stole five bags off Syndergaard just last month. The Phillies will be low owned on a full slate but have one of the better upside matchups of the night.
Tremendous home/road splits
The Phillies have a healthy 4.87 implied run line that puts them within the top five marks tonight at home against Wei-Yin Chen. The "at home" part might be the most important because Chen has a gap of over seven runs in his home/road ERA and his road FIP (6.37) is exactly double his home FIP (3.18). The Phillies will send everyone against him from the right-hand side (.333 wOBA, 34.1 GB% vs Chen this year). Against a fly ball pitcher in a power friendly park, we're looking for power against LHP and that comes from only two Philadelphia batters: Wilson Ramos (156 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Carlos Santana (114 wRC+ .221 ISO). Single season sample marks against LHP are still rather small by nature, so one might expect further growth from Rhys Hoskins (105 wRC+, .128 ISO), while Jose Bautista (101 wRC+, .172 ISO) is cheap and hasn't been terrible near the top of the lineup.
Power hitting catcher hitting cleanup and a great value on FanDuel
Gio Gonzalez allowed just one run to the Mets in seven innings last time out, but still struck out just two and still has just a 2.8 K-BB% over his last 14 starts. The Phillies (5.01) are currently the last of four teams above five implied runs tonight. They line up entirely right-handed against Gonzalez because batters from that side have a .347 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season. Wilson Ramos (161 wRC+, .263 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup by a mile against LHP this season. Both he and Rhys Hoskins (122 wRC+, .147 ISO) cost $4.9K on DraftKings, but the cleanup hitting catcher costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Jose Bautista (104 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Carlos Santana (104 wRC+, .200 ISO) are the only other bats in the lineup who have had shown significant pop against LHP this year.
What Year Is It?
it's 2018, and Jose Bautista is a Core Play. Though Bautista's skills are somewhat respectable, it would still take extenuating circumstances for him to be a highly ranked play. Those circumstances are an extreme wind blowing out in Wrigley Field, and a low strikeout pitcher who can't control batted balls for the Cubs. When the wind reaches this level at Wrigley, all we need is balls hit into the air. That is the one thing Bautista still does well. He has a 45% fly ball rate against lefties this season, and he is also a patient hitter that is not swinging at bad pitches. Jon Lester doesn't have a single plus skill against righties with 18.3% K, 8.6% BB and no ability to control batted balls. At this salary, just getting the ball in the air is enough.
Roasted bullpen and pitcher returning from the DL who can be run on liberally
The FanDuel main afternoon slate kicks off at noon and includes the first four games, while the DraftKings main afternoon slate skips the noon start between the Mets and the Nationals. Both teams are hovering around the middle of the board, one-tenth of a point removed from 4.25 implied runs. Tommy Milone was decent enough in his first start against the Marlins (5 IP - 3 ER - 0 BB - 6 K), but in 53.1 major league innings since last season, RHBs have torched him for a .440 wOBA (.394 xwOBA) on just a 36.4 GB%. In addition, Kevin reports a healthy wind blowing out 10-15 mph (direction not noted) on a humid afternoon. This part is easy enough. Amed Rosario (84 wRC+, .163 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Austin Jackson (119 wRC+, .101 ISO), Wilmer Flores (92 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Jose Bautista (114 wRC+, .211 ISO) comprise four of the first five spots in the lineup and are all below $3K. Jackson costs the minimum. The other side of this is a bit trickier. The Mets threw nearly every pitcher they have plus Jose Reyes at the Nationals last night. The bullpen is exhausted. Noah Syndergaard is returning from a virus and my not be built up to go deep into this game, so he's probably not an ideal option at $9.5K. One guy who did not appear and is likely to throw a few innings under most scenarios is Seth Lugo. He's thrown just 2.2 innings over the last week. Considering Syndergaard may not be in top form, the Nationals have wisely utilized their speed at the top of the order today with Adam Eaton (142 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Trea Turner (104 wRC+, .170 ISO). If nothing else, even at his best, Syndergaard can be run on liberally.
The Old Guys Comes To Play
Yes, he's old. Like real old. Like retirement home old, but on the year he's actually playing pretty well. We may not have a huge sample size, but on 31 AB's vs. LHP, Bautita owns a great .292 ISO and .380 wOBA. He draws a matchup against Montgomery who, although he may not give up a lot of bombs, does not strike out a whole lot of guys and walks a decent amount too. The whether in NY should be pretty hot and humid today and at just 3.3K Bautista is way too cheap for batting 3rd in the order. Play him to save some money for some Coors bats.
Brandon Nimmo (244 wRC+ last seven days) continues to cost less than $4K
The Mets have an implied run line just above four (4.11) and Julio Teheran has a recent history of success against this team, including 14 shutout innings this season, but he's allowed 13 runs in his last 17 innings with as many walks as strikeouts (nine each) and five HRs. The interesting thing is that this season, RHBs have a wOBA six points higher than LHBs with seven of his 11 HRs allowed. That doesn't mean much because Jose Bautista (58 wRC+, .141 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is essentially the Mets' RH power at this point and by xwOBA, LHBs (.357) are 58 points higher than RHBs since last season. Unfortunate that Michael Conforto is out of tonight's lineup, but on base machine Brandon Nimmo (162 wRC+, .245 ISO) continues to cost less than $4K. He has a 244 wRC+ and 52 Hard% over the last week, just a bit better than Bautista's 216 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% over that span. Jay Bruce (110 wRC+, .207 ISO) may be another bat worth considering for less than $3.5K.
All Mets bats below $4K against Anibal Sanchez and tired Atlanta bullpen
The Mets have just a 4.22 implied run line in Atlanta tonight and the question to ask is...why? Anibal Sanchez makes his first start back from the DL (hamstring). Batters from either side have a hard hit rate above 33% with a ground ball rate below 40% against him since last season and these two teams played a double-header on Monday that didn't end until after 1am. Bullpens were exhausted. Brandon Nimmo (158 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Michael Conforto (148 wRC+, .229 ISO) lead a lineup without a batter above $4K on either site. They are joined by Devin Mesoraco (108 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Jose Bautista (60 wRC+, .141 ISO) with all four at or above a 150 wRC+ and 38+ Hard% over the last week. If players are looking at higher priced pitching tonight, this is a lineup with upside that gets you there.
A High Upside Risk/Reward Stack
The Braves are an interesting potential offense to target tonight. They face a pitcher in Tyler Chatwood that does get a fair amount of strikeouts, but Chatwood also has a mammoth 19% walk rate this season. It doesn't bode well for him against a Braves offense that strikes out at the second lowest clip in the league. I like the high end pieces like Freeman and Albies here, but there could also be some value in whoever catches and also in a guy like Jose Bautista, who is still showing some power potential these days. Don't sleep on the Braves as an under the radar team to stack tonight.
A Little Aggressive
Rostering Jose Bautista in cash may seem a little aggressive considering he wasn't even on a Minor League, much less Major League, roster a month ago but I'm fine with taking a flier on a cheap Bautista at what is not a very deep position for Saturday's main slate. Prior to Bautista's Big League call up he was hitting the ball well as he went 10/15 in his last four games in AAA (small sample size alert). Encouragingly, Bautista did barrel a ball in his Braves debut last night and he should bat middle of the order again for one of the hottest offenses in baseball.