Kyle Gibson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kyle Gibson is generally not considered a high upside pitcher and is not the most expensive pitcher on either site, but isn’t too far off (fourth or fifth most expensive) and it could be argued that he’s potentially the best arm available on tonight’s 11 game slate. Gibson allowed more than two runs for only the second time in 16 starts when these same Tigers got him for five last time out, but he’s also struck out 24 of his last 74 batters to push his strikeout rate up to 21.7% to go along with a 50.9 GB%. A 2.29 ERA is still more than a run below all estimators (.254 BABIP, 84.3 LOB%, 9.6 HR/FB), though those estimators range widely from a 3.39 xERA up to a 4.27 DRA. However, seven of nine projected starters from the Tigers have at least a 23.9 K% vs RHP this year with only three above a .160 ISO. Gibson has also recorded at least one sixth inning out in every start since opening day.

If you’re considering that Gibson doesn’t have enough upside for your taste, consider that more than half of tonight’s starting pitchers fall below a 20 K% this year. If we can’t have strikeouts, we’re secondarily looking for heavy workloads and run prevention. That means that guys like Cole Irvin and Zack Greinke could be viable tonight. Irvin’s not going to miss bats (17.6%) or keep the ball on the ground (36.9 GB%), but that’s okay in this park and he compliments with great control (4.3 BB%) that’s allowed him to generate quality starts in half of his 18 tries. He also has one of the better defenses in baseball behind him and that includes one of the top framing catchers in Sean Murphy. Irvin is within $200 of $8K on either site. While the strikeout rate (18.5%) keeps dropping, Greinke remains strong enough in other areas (5.0 BB%, 6.9% Barrels/BBE) to remain effective, though a 3.99 ERA is the closest to his 3.59 ERA. He’s completed at least seven innings in nine of 19 starts and faces a Cleveland offense with just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP in a neutral run environment for less than $9K.

One more pitcher to talk about who may have high strikeout upside, but may be limited in workload is Tony Gonsolin, who is $8.2K on DraftKings. He is striking out batters at an even higher rate than last year (28.7%). The walk rate has jumped from 4% last year to 14% this year, though perhaps that’s improving with just two over his last 36 batters faced. Gonsolin also threw a season high 83 pitches last time out, so if the control is improving and the Dodgers are ready to allow him a larger workload, perhaps we’ll see the return of a pitcher who generated 1.8 fWAR in just 46.2 innings last year. The Giants have a 109 wRC+, but 25.3 K% vs RHP this year.

Since recording just a single out on Opening Day, as he walked three of eight Royals with a single strikeout, Kyle Gibson has allowed just six runs over six starts. His first two home runs were allowed in his last start, in which he still completed eight innings with eight strikeouts in Minnesota. The .248 BABIP and 5.9 HR/FB are both a bit unsustainable and at this point, we’d probably just further frustrate ourselves by expecting his 13.3 SwStr% to result in a much higher strikeout rate (21.3%) because he has just a career 1.75 K/SwStr. This year’s mark is a career high mark so far, so perhaps he reaches league average. He continues to generate ground balls (52.2%), which limits Barrels (5.2%). His SIERA and xFIP are around four. The Giants have a 102 wRC+ and 15.8 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a staggering 28 K%. Mike Yastrzemski’s expected return to the lineup should give them a boost, if healthy. He has a 128 wRC+ and .254 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Mike Tauchman (111 wRC+, .195 ISO) would be a top value should he find the leadoff spot again. Wilmer Flores is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .319 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Gibson since 2019, but he does seem to be pitching at a slightly higher level this year. While nobody is averaging six full innings per start on the slate tonight, Gibson comes closest, but is the only pitcher to exceed $9K on FD ($9.5K). He may be a better value on DraftKings ($8.6K).

Alex Wood is flashing upside from 2017, when he ran up a career high 3.1 fWAR for the Dodgers. He’s struck out 25.6% with a 13.1 SwStr% with the disclaimer being that he’s had two starts against the Marlins and two against the Rockies. In addition, 16 of his 22 strikeouts have come in the home starts. It’s good news that he’s in another perceived high upside matchup against the Rangers at home. Or is it? He’s walked just 5.8% of batters faced and with 63.2% of his contact on the ground, he’s allowed just two Barrels (3.4%) so far. The Rangers have a 98 wRC+ and 18.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year, which is probably not you would expect. In fact, Nick Solak, Adolis Garcia, Joey Gallo and Charlie Culberson all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs LHP since 2019. Garcia still costs just $3.2K on DraftKings. Only two batters in the projected lineup are below a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Texas lineup is expected to be balanced and batters from either side of the plate are between a .333 to .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Wood since 2019. However, the projected middle of the lineup for Texas (Nate Lowe, Garcia and Gallo) all exceed a 28 K% vs LHP since 2019. Wood is the highest priced pitcher at $9.8K on DraftKings tonight, so he’s going to need another peak performance at home tonight. He’s thrown 97 pitches and completed six innings in each of those home starts and does have the best defense on the board (+8 Runs Prevented via Statcast) behind him.

Kyle Gibson faced eight Royals and recorded a single out on Opening Day. It was a strikeout and he had a 21.9 SwStr%, but he also walked three. His velocity was actually up nearly two miles per hour. Redemption in his second start, as he shut out the Blue Jays over six innings, striking out eight (14.6 SwStr%). None of his 19 batted balls have been barreled despite a 91.4 mph EV and he sustained velocity increase in his second start. It also looks like he’s using his cutter quite a bit more. Tonight he takes on a competent Tampa Bay offense (six of nine projected batters 105 wRC+ or better vs RHP since 2019, five of nine above a 120 wRC+ overall this year), but one with just marginal power and lots of strikeouts. If you look at PlateIQ, seven of nine projected batters are above a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Gibson has trouble with batters from either side of the plate (between a .325 to .360 wOBA and xwOBA) and the Rays have a below average bullpen, so don’t write off Rays’ bats either. However, Gibson carries the lowest cost on the board on DraftKings, where he can make for the perfect secondary arm with more upside than usual in this spot.

Kyle Gibson blew away nine Oakland batters in his second start after setting down just four Diamondbacks in his first start. His total 28.3 K% comes with just a 9.2 SwStr%, which would be his lowest mark since 2014. Gibson usually works the other way, with an impressive SwStr% that would suggest a higher strikeout rate than he normally has. He’s been at a 53 GB% in each start, yet still 10.7% Barrels/BBE with two of his six fly balls leaving the yard. Regardless, the Mariners have some strikeout potential in this lineup. They have struck out in a quarter of their PAs against RHP this year and have a board low 68 wRC+ over the last week. While Gibson struggles with LHBs (.344 wOBA since 2019), the Mariners have little LH power to be concerned with. If players don’t want to pay up for Corbin tonight, Gibson should be able to limit damage with ground balls and generate enough whiffs to be useful at a reasonable price ($8.7K on FanDuel).