Madison Bumgarner Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It’s really difficult not to pay up for one of the $11K pitchers on FanDuel because some of the pitchers who project as better values are not arms with a lot of upside, who are really in trouble if they give up a few runs without the strikeouts to support them. It’s more about great matchups for Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Civale, who are the only pitchers projecting as better values than the top priced arms tonight (though Ryan Pepiot has some weird massive pricing discrepancy between sites going on). Since striking out a season high nine of 29 Nationals three starts back, Bumgarner has struck out just two of 54 Rockies and Braves with four walks. He’s also walked at least three in four of his last seven. Bumgarner has just an 8.5 K-BB% and 90.1 mph EV, resulting in estimators that are all more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.96 ERA, as 10 of his 61 runs have been unearned. He may have some success against Pittsburgh (81 wRC+, 26.2 K% vs LHP) with his cutter (38.3%, 0.5 RV/100), as they’re the second worst offense in baseball against the pitch (-1.47 wFC/C). Bumgarner is the second best projected value on either site for less than $8K and probably makes a better SP2 for $6.9K on DraftKings than a stand-alone arm on FanDuel.

Syndergaard did not fare too well in his Philly debut, allowing more runs (four) than strikeouts (two) against the Nationals. He’s had some fits and starts this year, but in the end, he’s still exhibiting great control (6.1 BB%) with average contact profile, but just hasn’t been able to miss bats the way he used to (18.2 K%). Even his swinging strike rate has dropped to 10.4% (9.4% last nine starts). His 4.02 ERA is below, but within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators. It’s certainly not the park that draws projections to him (third best projected value on either site). It’s the price tag (under $8K) and matchup (Marlins 97 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP). That doesn’t look too bad, but they were well above a 100 wRC+ against RHP not too long ago.

Aaron Civale returns from the IL to make his first post-break start. He got through 16 batters in a lone rehab start and shouldn’t be too limited here. A league average 21.7 K% and good control (6.3%), Civale’s issue has been the contact profile this year (90.1 mph EV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE, 12.1 HR/FB). Things had been stabilizing, as he only allowed a home run in one of his last six starts (7.3% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.07 ERA before hitting the IL. However, his first six starts were so bad that he still has a season ERA above six, while estimators range from a 3.94 SIERA to a 4.74 xERA. Again, cost ($6.5K on either site) and matchup (Tigers 67 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP) push his projected value near the top of the board.

It had looked like Jose Berrios had gotten something going until he struck out just a single Twin in his big revenge game last time out. It was the first time he’d allowed multiple home runs in seven starts, but he’s still allowed at least one in all but one of those starts and is still getting barreled up pretty regularly (24 home runs on 43 barrels this year). Berrios has a league average 21.1 K% with good control (5.7 BB%), but either seems to put together a gem or get lit up in most of his starts and we can never really predict which way it’ll go. Perhaps the key stat here is that his best pitch is a curveball (-0.7 RV/100, 32.4 Whiff%) that he throws more than any other pitch (32.2%). The Orioles (98 wRC+, 22.2 K%) have been the second best offense in baseball against curveballs this season (0.93 wCU/C), trailing only the Rockies in a stat that is not park adjusted. Berrios is incredibly difficult to trust, but still has upside you probably can’t complete ignore for $7.3K on DraftKings, though you may be able to for nearly $2K more on FanDuel.

Pitchers costing less than $7K, who have been pitching better recently, but are in tough matchups include Dean Kremer (Blue Jays), Glenn Otto (Astros) and Kris Bubic (White Sox 116 wRC+ vs LHP).

Two pitchers who aren’t extremely high priced or in high upside matchups, but still merit serious consideration tonight are Adbert Alzolay and Madison Bumgarner. Both are pitching in very pitcher friendly and potentially weather aided environments tonight. The former has a 29.3 K% and 14.3 SwStr%, the latter the second highest number on the board tonight. Concerns would be workload (fewer than 95 pitches each start) and contact profile (38.5 GB%, 90.2 mph EV), while facing an offense with just a 21.8 K% vs RHP. However, Alzolay has still compiled a quality start in two of his last three outings and the wind blowing in from right should help Alzolay’s sizeable platoon issues with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber really the only LHBs he needs to be concerned about. Lastly, while the Nationals are one of the more contact prone offenses, they still have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and Alzolay costs $8.1K or less on either site.

Bumgarner is facing the Dodgers, which would not only have screamed fade, but also stack against only month ago, but the big lefty has been on fire, while the Dodger lineup keeps losing bats. Not only has Bumgarner allowed just three runs over his last 30 innings with just two walks and 34 strikeouts (12.4 SwStr%), but his fastball velocity has increased with just about every start. He averaged 92.6 mph in a game for the first time since early 2019 last time out. While many rightfully expected hard contact issues would be more problematic for him outside San Francisco, Bumgarner has been below a 90 mph EV for the first three times this season in his last three starts too. Perhaps you want to look at xERA for him, which includes the contact profile. That’s below his actual 4.12 ERA at 3.40. The flip side of that coin is that he hasn’t faced many strong or hot offenses this season (at least against LHP), but the Dodgers may not be that either right now, despite the addition of Albert Pujols. Among projected batters tonight, only the first six have more than 11 PAs vs LHP since 2019 and three of them are above a 25 K% against southpaws over that span. Suddenly, an $8.5K Bumgarner may be one of the better plays on the board tonight.

Bumgarner has put together another pretty solid year, posting a 3.77 ERA, 4.29 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA with an improved 24.1% K rate, 5.1% BB Rate and 11.1% SwStr. Per Statcast, he also owns a .312 xwOBA allowed, 8.6% barrel rate and 89.4 MPH aEV. Bumgarner gets a matchup tonight at home vs. the Marlins, who have been dreadful with a 2nd-worst 80 wRC+ and 22.8% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They also have just an 83 wRC+ and 25.9% K rate over the past 30 days. Bumgarner doesn’t project to have the platoon advantage versus a single batter in the Marlins’ lineup, but he does have an advantage pitching at home, where he’s been decidedly better in his career. Since 2015, Bumgarner has a 2.31 ERA / 2.95 FIP, 20.6% K-BB, 0.96 WHIP and .277 xwOBA allowed at home, compared to a 4.12 ERA / 4.06 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB, 1.22 WHIP and .314 xwOBA allowed on the road. Bumgarner is pretty affordable, coming in at $8.9k on Draftkings and $9.9k on Fanduel and making him one of the top projected PTS/$ pitchers on each site tonight. The Marlins currently have just a 3.02 implied total vs. Bumgarner and the Giants.

Madison Bumgarner has experienced a nice rebound in the K% department this year, currently sitting at a 24.5% K Rate after posting a 19.8% mark in 2018 and a 22.4% mark in 2017. Overall, Bumgarner has a 3.71 ERA, 4.19 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 11.3% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has also posted a solid .308 xwOBA allowed with an 8.4% barrel rate and 89.6 MPH aEV. He gets a matchup in pitcher’s haven Oracle Park vs. the Padres, who have do have a respectable 103 wRC+ and 24.3% K Rate vs. LHP on the year. However, they have just a 23rd ranked .309 xwOBA vs. LHP as a team, and a 28th ranked .290 xwOBA over the past 30 days as they’ve been hurt by the loss of Fernando Tatis (back injury) and Franmil Reyes (traded). Bumgarner has a been a much better pitcher at home; since 2017, he has a 2.64 ERA / 3.24 FIP with a 18.3% K-BB and .291 xwOBA allowed at home, compared to a 4.34 ERA / 4.53 FIP with a 15% K-BB and .333 xwOBA allowed in road starts. He’ll have a price tag of $9.2k on Fanduel and $10.2k on Draftkings and looks like a good play in both cash and GPPs. The Padres currently have just a 3.51 implied total.

Matt Boyd (32.1%), Charlie Morton (31.2%), Stephen Strasburg (29.1%) and Trevor Bauer (27.4%) own the top four strikeout rates on the board tonight. None are cheaper than $9.6K on either site and all are pitching in difficult situations in terms of weather, park factors and/or opposing offense. It might make some sense for players to drop down a few hundred dollars more and take a look at the pitching matchup in San Francisco tonight. Neither Noah Syndergaard (23.4 K%, 4.55 ERA, 4.15 SIERA), nor Madison Bumgarner (24.9 K%, 3.86 ERA, .399 SIERA, 9.6% Barrels/BBE, .330 xwOBA) are pitching up to their normal standards and expectations, but both may have some value tonight. In Syndergaard’s case, while a 17.0 K-BB% is not as impressive as usual, he’s been an exceptional contact manager (85.8 mph aEV, 4.0% Barrels/BBE, 29.4% 95+ mph EV all top the board tonight), projecting a .277 xwOBA 32 points below his actual mark with a 3.30 DRA. Bumgarner has not been a strong contact manager, but he is up to a 29.8 K% over the last month and has walked just 5.1% of batters on the year. He also pitches in a great park that is very forgiving towards a lot of that hard contact. The Mets do have a 114 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP, but that comes with a 15.7 K-BB%. The Giants have a 140 wRC+ over the last week, but are coming off a series at Coors and own an 87 wRC+ vs RHP with a 74 wRC+ and 8.8 HR/FB at home.

Madison Bumgarner’s 5.2 BB% is his strongest quality this year, but his 31.4 Hard-Soft% and 89.7 mph aEV may not fare well against the Dodgers (109 wRC+, 11 K-BB%, 29.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). His 3.87 ERA matches estimators right around four with a 4.49 DRA a bit higher. While Bumgarner hasn’t really fared poorly against RHBs over the last calendar year (.308 wOBA), they do have a .340 xwOBA and 44.6 Hard% against him with just a 39.5 GB% over that span. Dodger bats are on the bottom half of the board at 4.29 implied runs tonight, which makes them a strong contrarian play with Enrique Hernandez (109 wRC+, .166 ISO) the only one among the first six in the projected order below a 115 wRC+ or .210 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year and that includes the two lefties (Cody Bellinger & Max Muncy).

The game at Citi Field presents an interesting matchup in a negative run environment, where both Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard are both right around $9K tonight. Bumgarner has a 19.6 K-BB% on the back of excellent control (4.6 BB%). His ERA sits with his estimators all around four with a bit too much hard contact (.325 xwOBA, .345 last 30 days). It’s possible that a great big park in San Francisco is assisting him a bit, but it’s not really much of a park downgrade tonight in terms of run environment. While the Mets will offer a predominantly right-handed lineup with some power (16.2 HR/FB vs LHP) there are going to be strikeouts in this lineup (26.2 K% vs LHP).

Noah Syndergaard is sitting on a 4.90 ERA that is incredibly difficult to justify. Each of his estimators is at least a full run lower with his 3.00 DRA nearly two runs below the actual. His .278 xwOBA is 48 points below his .326 wOBA, as he’s allowed just an 86.6 mph aEV and 4.6% Barrels/BBE. His 81.5 Z-Contact% and 18.2 LD%, both near the top of the board as well. The peripherals…a 19.1 K-BB%. What’s going on then? A .333 BABIP and 64.7 LOB%. A lot of bad luck hits. Syndergaard 13.5 HR/FB and 31.8 Hard% are both well above his career average, so the argument isn’t that he’s been dominant, just that his numbers are still fairly strong and he costs less than $10K against a very poor offense (80 wRC+, 14.9 K-BB%, 12.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a great park. Players tired of being burned may want to skip over him on a strong board tonight, but Thor has struck out fewer than five just one time this season and has faced at least 25 batters in every start since his second of the season. There’s a reasonable floor here as well as a high ceiling.