Max Scherzer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Max Scherzer has been scratched Saturday.

No single pitcher falls below $9K on Fanduel today, while DraftKings pitchers run a $5.3K to $9.8K range. Just keep in mind that when a win today and tomorrow ends each of these series, managers should and probably will more aggressively hook starters in the post-season. The most expensive pitcher on the slate ($10.8K FD) costs nearly $3K less on DK ($6.9), Alek Manoah enters this game as the pitcher with an ERA (2.24) furthest removed from his estimators (3.31 xERA to a 3.98 xFIP). He’s obviously benefitted from a 31.5% hard hit rate and 5.4% Barrels/BBE that were of his own making and a 22.9 K% (16.4 K-BB%) aren’t poor by any stretch, but a .246 BABIP, six unearned runs and 82.6 LOB% were far less under his control and rates he may not sustain. Manoah did finish up with eight straight Quality Starts though, four of them at least seven innings, allowing just five barrels (3.6%) over this span. The Toronto defense was fine (6 Runs Prevented), but Alejandro Kirk was actually one of the best catchers in the league by CDA (12.1 was third best), which is a counting stat. As far as Seattle goes, they’ve been good (106 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 12.6 HR/FB), but sort of just middle of the board today. There are no easy ones. The Seattle lineup is banged up a bit and has struggled in the second half. In fact, they were bottom half of the league against every pitch type Fangraphs tracks since the break, while Manoah graded much better than average on all four of his (four-seam, sinker, slider, changeup). There is not currently a projection showing for Manoah in LineupHQ, but we might suspect it being near the middle to bottom of the board and obviously a much better value on DraftKings.

Tied for second most expensive on FD ($10.6K) and most expensively on DK ($9.8K), while Max Scherzer tied a career high (2020) with 8.4% Barrels/BBE, the old man also tops today’s board in strikeout rate (30.6%) with the lowest walk rate (4.2%). The park also helped keep 17 of his 30 barrels in the yard. The high barrel rate was probably mostly a function of a 31.1 GB%, as his 33.9% hard hit rate was third best on the board. The 83.3% strand rate merits some regression. His 2.29 ERA was at least one-third of a run below estimators ranging from a 2.62 FIP to a 3.23 xFIP. The Mets have a good defense (8 Runs Prevented), but not that good. The Padres represent one of the more favorable matchups on the board today, especially considering the park. San Diego had a 101 wRC+ and 22.0 K% vs RHP. Scherzer’s slider (23.2%, -3.5 RV/100, 46.2 Whiff%) was a top 20 pitch in the league by accumulated Run Value (-18) and coincidentally, the only pitch the Padres really struggled with after the break (-0.19 wSL/C). Also, Tomas Nido was the second best defensive catcher in the league this year (16.9 CDA) and that’s a counting stat. Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board and top projected FanDuel value (just a middling DK value).

Tied with Scherzer on FD and $500 cheaper on DK, you probably haven’t heard much about Shane Bieber’s velocity since April because it hasn’t been a problem. It’s even risen since early in the season, but remaining below previous years, he just reduced his fastball usage (it was his worst graded pitch via Statcast at 0.1 RV/100) and everything has worked out fine. Bieber finished the season allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 starts with at least seven outings in eight of those. He failed to produce six innings, only in his last start. Striking out exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced and walking just 4.6% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), an 89.9 mph EV didn’t hurt so much. There was a bit of a falter over the last month of the season, but a 13.0 SwStr% and .303 xwOBA suggest he pitched much better than results. His 2.88 ERA was a near perfect match for his FIP (2.87), but only more than one-third of a run below a 3.51 xERA. Two additional facets in his favor are that the Cleveland defense was fifth best in the league this year (14 Runs Prevented) and Austin Hedges was the fifth best defensive catcher (11.4 CDA, which is a counting stat). The Rays finished with a 99 wRC+ and board high 24 K% vs RHP. Their 94 road wRC+ and 23.5 road K% are both board worsts as well. Additionally, Bieber will be taking his slider (28.8%, -1.3 RV/100, 39.4 Whiff%, .234 wOBA, .237 xwOBA) against the worst offense against sliders since the break (-1.35 wSL/C). He projects as the second best pitcher on the board currently (though that is subject to change), but as just a middling FanDuel value and the worst DraftKings one. Understand that value projections run a much narrower range today though.

Third most expensive on DK (fourth on FD), Yu Darvish failed to go at least six innings twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second rate strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. He’s also making a shift from one pitcher’s park to another tonight, where elevated contact should continue to not punish him, though his barrel rate is pretty easily highest on the board and he’s facing the most dangerous offense with a board high 119 wRC+ vs RHP and board low 19.6 K% against them. The San Diego defense is the best on the board too though (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league), so he pretty much just has to keep it in the park. Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast, but the one he threw most often was the cutter (35.3%, -0.6 RV/100, 25.6 Whiff%), which, coincidentally, was the only pitch the Mets really struggled against in the second half (-0.41 wFC/C). Darvish projects as a middle of the board arm, but third from the bottom value on either site right now. We’ll cover the remaining four pitchers in the next post.

A seven game slate on both sites starts a half hour earlier tonight and includes three $10K pitchers with one more costing exactly $9.7K on each site. A key theme we’re probably going to encounter several times today is decreased workloads. Starting with the most expensive pitcher on the board, returning from a two week IL stint, facing just 14 batters in a rehab start last week, Max Scherzer is one of several pitchers on this slate who could be on a lighter workload than usual. It’s interesting to note that his 30.6 K% is his lowest since he was in Detroit, so perhaps he is finally showing some small signs of aging (aside from the nagging injuries beginning to pile up), but the 4.6 BB% is also his lowest since his first year in Washington. And really, who’s going to complain about a guy with a 2.26 ERA and only a single estimator above three (3.32 xFIP), allowing just a 32.3% hard contact rate (95+ mph EV)? Considering the potential workload limitation, the substantial park downgrade (especially if the roof is open) and tough matchup (Brewers 109 wRC+, 22.9 K%, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP), Scherzer is merely tonight’s fifth best projected pitcher and a bottom half of the board projected value. For more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, including the top projected one, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

We start the week with an eight game Monday night slate featuring three $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings) without any other arms exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively and costing more than $1K more than any other pitcher on either site, a string of seven straight Quality Starts for Max Scherzer came to an end last time out against the Braves, tying a season high four runs allowed over six innings. He’s only failed to hit the six inning mark twice (his second start and then by a single out once more). It may be a bit fortunate that just eight of 24 barrels (9.1%) have left the yard, but he’s otherwise only allowing 31.8% of his contact to reach the 95 mph mark, though just 29.6% of it has been on the ground. More importantly, his 26.7 K-BB% remains elite. A 3.27 xFIP is nearly half a run above all other estimators, due to the extreme fly ball lean. The slider is Scherzer’s best offering (-4 RV/100, 49 Whiff%) and even though the Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.3 K%, 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP) are the top offense against that pitch (0.32 wSL/C), they went scoreless against him over seven innings with six strikeouts a little less than a month back. The Yankee offense continues to struggle with a 64 wRC+ and 24.7 K-BB% over the last week. Scherzer is the top projected FanDuel pitcher and essentially tied for the top spot on DraftKings. However, he’s projected as the slightly better value on DraftKings (sixth best) and more a middle of the board value on FanDuel (eighth). There’s also a small chance of delay in this game, something Scherzer also experienced in his last start, though he did come back out again. For more on tonight's most expensive arms, including a top Scherzer pivot, check out Monday's PlateIQ Live Blog.

Despite the moderately sized nine game slate, the Wednesday night board still features four $10K pitches on both sites, along with one more above $9K on each. Max Scherzer has eight straight Quality starts since returning from the IL (1.36 ERA/1.89 FIP/3.16 xFIP), four of them with seven innings and none with more than two earned runs. He’s struck out 31.3% of batters faced with just a 4.2 BB% and also 20 of 49 Braves faced this season. Only eight of his 23 Barrels (9.2%) have left the yard, which explains the career low 6.3 HR/FB, but a 3.22 xFIP is still his only estimator exceeding three. The Braves represent a dangerous, but high upside matchup (107 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB, 25.0 K% vs RHP). Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher, above $11K on either site, and the top projected one, while projecting for the seventh most value on either site. Early ownership projections also suggest he could be in more than half of lineups tonight. Reasons for considering an underweight position might be a substantial park downgrade and Atlanta carrying the most weather risk on the slate. For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the top Scherzer alternative, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

A 13 game Friday night slate features just three $10K pitches, though all three reach that price point on both sites. Two more exceed $9K on both sites with nearly half the board in the $8-9K range. Max Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the board and has failed to complete six innings in just two of his 15 starts this year and once by just a single out. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last nine and has a 27.7 K-BB% with just 32.9% of contact reaching a 95 mph EV on the season. It seems as if he doesn’t experience age related decline and only injuries can stop him. Estimators are well above his 1.98 ERA (85.6 LOB%, 7.7 HR/FB – the latter the lowest mark of his career, pitching in the most pitcher friendly park of his career), but only his xFIP (3.13) reached three. The Phillies are the hottest offense in baseball (162 wRC+, 8.5 K-BB%, 22.6 HR/FB last seven days), but have to transition to a much power difficult park, have just a 99 wRC+ (22.4 K%) vs RHP and are now down both of their power hitting LHBs (Harper & Schwarber). Key because Scherzer has a 61 point xwOBA split this season and complete dominates RHBs (.224 wOBA, .240 xwOBA). Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board and the third best projected value on either site. For much more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including the best Scherzer pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Monday night slate to kick off the week includes just nine games, but four $10K pitchers (just one on DraftKings) with one more above $9K on both sites. Max Scherzer has a 35.7 K% and 17.2 SwStr% through five July starts, walking just four, while allowing just five runs. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start in just three of his 13 starts and has missed completing six innings in 11 straight starts by only a single out. With a 27.9 K-BB% (79.7 Z-Contact%), Scherzer would probably be a Cy Young contender had he avoided a month on the IL. While his contact profile includes 10.9% Barrels/BBE, that’s more a function of his ground ball rate (27.9%) than the amount of hard contact he’s allowed (34.2% 95+ mph EV). A 3.13 xERA is the highest of his estimators, which run as low as a 2.50 FIP. Just seven of 21 barrels have left the yard. The Nationals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) don’t strike out much (19.7% vs RHP), but are the second worst slider hitter team in the majors this year (-0.9 wSL/C) and Scherzer has a pretty nasty one (21.9%, -3.6 RV/100, 51.4 Whiff%). That sets up this matchup very nicely for Scherzer despite the park downgrade and hitter friendly weather (which appears to be the case in every open air stadium tonight). Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on either site and the top projected one. The high price tag pushes him to the latter half of the top 10 pitching values on either site. To find out who the top pivots off Scherzer are tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.