Michael Brantley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Houston Astros sit somewhat alone at third highest team run total tonight, right around four and a half against Dane Dunning in Texas. He’s going to keep it on the ground over half the time (51.3%), though half of his eight fly balls have been barrels and one-quarter of them have left the yard so far. He struck out 22.3% of batters last year and is right there again this year (23%), but with just a 7.9 SwStr% and 11.5 BB%. With his fastball sitting below 90 mph this year, the ground ball rate might be the only thing working against the Astros tonight. Houston bats project well, though not at the very top of the board overall. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Dunning since last year, so we certainly like someone like Jeremy Pena (163 wRC+, .325 ISO vs RHP) in the leadoff spot ($2.9K on FD), along with Michael Brantley (159 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP since 2021) at $3.5K or less on either site, as great potential values. As a matter of fact, six of the top 11 projected point per dollar values on FanDuel are Houston bats, including Pena, Brantley and Kyle Tucker (143 wRC+, .327 ISO), who still somehow costs less than $3K. Yordan Alvarez (140 wRC+, .266 ISO) is the most expensive piece of this puzzle.

Addtionally interesting low cost bats, who project decently from a point per dollar value and should find themselves in the middle of their teams’ lineup tonight include Franmil Reyes (115 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP since LY) against Michael Lorenzen. RHBs are below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, but Reyes costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Alex Verdugo (139 wRC+, .188 ISO) costs just $3.3K on DK and Jose Berrios has traditionally struggled with LHBs (.351 wOBA, .350 xwOBA since LY).

Through six starts, Eli Morgan’s major league numbers are much better than any of his minor league work or any scouting reports ever suggested…at least from the standpoint of his strikeout to walk ratio. He’s struck out a league average 23.5% of batters (11.1 SwStr%) with excellent control (4.2%). The 21.7 GB% with a 90 mph EV has been a problem, as he’s allowed nine home runs. To illustrate how volatile this profile is, he has a 4.27 SIERA, 4.77 xFIP and then his next best estimator is a 5.88 xERA. Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him. As a result, the Astros have the second highest implied run line on the board currently, at 5.22. Michael Brantley (175 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP this year) has been an integral part of this offense near the top of the lineup, which begs the question: why is he so cheap? Brantley costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, where he’s one of the top (if not the top) values on the board. He’s probably a strong value for $200 less on FanDuel as well. Another batter who remains surprisingly affordable on DraftKings is Kyle Tucker (151 wRC+, .250 ISO). Without much in the way of viable cheap pitching, players are probably going to have sacrifice some high priced offense tonight. It seems the left-handed portion of the Houston offense can help relieve that burden.

You’re going to need some cheap bats to mix in with your expensive pitching tonight and a lot of those guys can be found roaming the outfield tonight. Bordering on the ridiculous, Michael Brantley (176 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2020) costs less than $4K on DraftKings in Baltimore against Jorge Lopez (LHBs .357 wOBA, .358 xwOBA since 2020). Rostering Brantley and/or Chas McCormick (119 wRC+, .262 ISO) may allow players to add Yordan Alvarez (136 wRC+, .208 ISO) as well.

Baltimore is not the only place you’ll find value outfielders and Austin Slater’s cheap price tag makes a little more sense as he generally only plays against lefties, but when he does, he also generally leads off and adds some wallop to the lineup (152 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP since 2020). Andrew Heaney is a solid arm, but has been prone to the long ball (career 15 HR/FB). Should you need to go even cheaper, LHBs have a .333 wOBA and .394 xwOBA against Johan Oviedo and while some of that is due to control issues, Akil Baddoo (160 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.3K on DraftKings.

Charlie Morton is just third best on the board with a 30.4 K%, but also keeps the ball on the ground at a decent rate (48.2%). His 5.0% Barrels/BBE is only third best on the board, but the two pitchers ahead of him made just a combined 16 starts this year. He did have his worst start of the season against the Astros near the end of August (4 IP – 6 ER – 4 K), but then allowed a total of nine runs over five September starts after that. Saying that you’d rather be a RHP facing the Astros than a LHP is like saying you’d rather be stabbed than shot. This is still and offense with a 123 wRC+, 18.4 K% and 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP. The negative run environment in Tampa Bay helps somewhat. Considering park, cost (less than $9.5K), potential ownership and upside, Morton should be usable in GPPs, but he’s certainly not the safe play. Dangerous is the fact each of the first seven batters in the Houston lineup are at or above a 125 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs RHP this year and Jose Altuve owns those “low” numbers in both instances. While Morton has a bit of platoon split, LHBs are still below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. It probably makes Michael Brantley (146 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP) and Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+, .342 ISO) two of the more interesting plays in this lineup. The former is within $100 of $3.5K on either site. The thing to keep in mind in an elimination game is that the leash is going to be fairly short, almost no matter who’s on the mound.