Mike Napoli Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Six of 28 teams have an implied run line between 5.41 and 5.96 on Tuesday with nobody else above 4.8 runs. There's not much on the high end behind Kershaw and Kluber, but the slate is filled with marginal arms that probably don't excite players one way or the other. The Rangers are on the top of the board, hosting Marco Gonzales, who has somehow turned an 11.1 SwStr% into just a 15.6 K%. He also has allowed the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the slate (43%). RHBs have a .423 wOBA and 32.5 Hard% against him this year. If Robinson Chirinos (206 wRC+, .339 ISO, 39.1 Hard%, 47.8 FB%) remains in the middle of the lineup, he'll be a great value on DraftKings, where he's the same price as FanDuel ($3.5K). The second best hitter against LHP for the Rangers has been...Joey Gallo (133 wRC+, .303 ISO), followed by Elvis Andrus (124 wRC+, .233 ISO). Nobody else has a wRC+ above 100, but Mike Napoli has a .274 ISO to go with his 86 wRC+ against southpaws. The Twins fall about a quarter of a run behind the Rangers (5.72). Since Travis Wood was traded to the Padres, RHBs have a .374 wOBA with nine HRs (28.4 GB%), which is actually an improvement on his .381 wOBA against RHBs for the season. Brian Dozier (163 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP) should mash, but among active batters, Byron Buxton has been the next best hitter against LHP (125 wRC+, .170 ISO) with Miguel Sano DL'ed. Nobody else on the roster combines a wRC+ and ISO above 100 against LHP this year.

R.A. Dickey has shown that he can still be an hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing exactly four earned runs in two of his last three starts, but he always seems to do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming rotation. This year, maintained his low strikeout rate, currently sitting at 17.3% to go along with an 8.5% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (48.5%) and limit hard contact to just 26.0% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it's difficult to imagine Dickey's 3.91 ERA continuing to improve with a 4.81 SIERA on the year. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Texas Rangers more of a stacking option in tournaments Monday night since there should be plenty of baserunners with a decent probability of home runs but difficult to predict where this production will come from. Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Gomez (119 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .360 ISO vs RHP) both have massive strikeout rates that should be mitigated by Dickey's inability to induce swings and misses, making them the clear top targets from this Rangers offense, while Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (114 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP), Nomar Mazara (.190 ISO vs RHP), Mike Napoli (.221 ISO vs RHP), and Rougned Odor (.229 ISO vs RHP) are more than likely second tier options but are logical members to round out a Rangers stack in tournaments if deciding to deploy that strategy on Monday night's slate.

The Colorado Rockies are implied for an absurd 6.76 runs tonight at home against Matt Garza. That's nearly a full run above the next highest team, the Dodgers, at 5.88 runs in Detroit against Jordan Zimmermann. The Rockies do not have the top implied run line tonight though. That currently goes to the Rangers (6.86 runs), hosting James Shields. That's a lot of punishment to be doled out. The question may be how best to afford those bats with Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber on the mound, costing above $13K on DraftKings and around $11.5K on FanDuel. Prominent Colorado bats and even Milwaukee ones against German Marquez are likely out of the question if going with one of the two elite pitchers. The Dodgers could have some affordable bats with the ability to go yard in the back half of the lineup: Yasiel Puig (134 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this year), Yasmani Grandal (109 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP) and Joc Pederson (109 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP) are all around $3.5K on DraftKings and $3K or less on FanDuel. The game in Texas could be most interesting. There may be room for a couple of affordable Texas bats down in the order (Robinson Chirinos 115 wRC+, .311 ISO vs RHP, Mike Napoli 76 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP, Shin-Soo Choo 107 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP), though players may also want to look at the other side of that matchup too. Andrew Cashner is somehow sporting a 7.9 HR/FB that's around half the league rate and keeping his ERA over two runs below his SIERA. The White Sox are implied for 4.64 runs tonight, somewhere in the middle of the board. He has struck out just one more LHB than he's walked with just a 37.7 GB% this year. Players will have to rely on small sample sizes for cheap bats, but Nick Delmonico (174 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), Yoan Moncada (144 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP) and Leury Garcia (121 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) all make tremendous sense. The Baltimore Orioles are the last time projected above five and a half runs (5.57) against Andrew Heaney, returning from Tommy John surgery tonight. Nine more teams are between 4.87 and 5.24 implied runs on a 14 game slate tonight.

Five of 18 teams tonight have an implied run line above five runs with two (Colorado and Texas) above both above six runs. The Rangers are just a league average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+), but have the benefit of a highly positive run environment and a matchup with Anibal Sanchez. RHBs have a .385 wOBA, 37.4 Hard%, and 38 GB% against him since last season. Adrian Beltre (130 wRC+, .245 ISO), Elvis Andrus (119 wRC+, .180 ISO), Carlos Gomez (115 wRC+, .227 ISO), Mike Napoli (79 wRC+, .222 ISO), and Robinson Chirinos (104 wRC+, .308 ISO) have all shown power against RHP this year. Joey Gallo (129 wRC+, .371 ISO) should not be counted out either. LHBs have a .345 wOBA, but just a 29.3 Hard% against Sanchez since last season. The Rockies are the worst offense in the majors against RHP (78 wRC+) and Mike Foltynewicz has allowed RHBs just a .318 wOBA with a 25.7 Hard% (47.4 GB%). LHBs have a .349 wOBA, 33.5 Hard% and 31.4 GB% against him since last year. ALL the Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP this year) obviously with some Gerardo Parra (110 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP this year), though the rest of the Rockies aren't mandatory plays. Carlos Gonzalez (61 wRC+, .125 ISO vs RHP this year) is toast.

Rather than trending towards a particular team, the RotoGrinders Player Projections project the best hitters in the league to have the biggest night tonight. The projected leaderboard is capped off by perennial MVP candidates Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Joey Votto before landing on a couple of Baltimore bats in Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop against Matt Boyd. Boyd has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last 10 starts, though more than four only once. He did have a double digit SwStr% in all three July starts though. His contact profile has improved too this year with a career high 42.4 GB% and an 86.5 mph aEV with just 30.4% of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. Andrew Benintendi checks in at seventh on the DraftKings projections, giving the top Vegas projected offense tonight a pair in the top 10 on that site. Benintendi doubles as a potential top value on DraftKings at 2.52 Pt/$/K. Among those projected for at least eight DK points, only Yulieski Gurriel (2.54 Pt/$/K) projects for more value. On FanDuel, Mike Napoli projects as a top value (3.74 Pt/$/K) against lefty Adalberto Mejia in cold and potentially very wet Minnesota. Evan Gattis (3.57 Pt/$/K) is another option against Blake Snell.

Charlie Blackmon is the top overall projected batter on the slate against a rookie RHP making his second start at Coors. Chris Flexen's AA numbers are no joke (24.0 K-BB%), but if he was flustered in his debut in San Diego, what might Coors do to him? The Rockies have a slate high 6.71 Vegas run projection. Three other Coors bats (Nolan Arenado, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce) appear among the top seven in the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Tyler Chatwood has a -4.4 K-BB% since June 18th, LHBs have a .462 wOBA in that span. The rest of the top seven is comprised of perennial MVP candidates Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Jose Altuve. Among batters projected for at least eight DraftKings points, Andrew Benintendi projects as the top value (2.53 Pt/$/K). He costs just $3.4K against an erratic pitcher (Trevor Bauer), who allows a lot of hard contact (89.2 mph aEV, 39.9% 95+ mph aEV). The top projected FanDuel value, regardless of point qualifiers, is Mike Napoli (3.84 Pt/$/K). He costs less than $3K and has a .333 ISO against LHP this year, facing a southpaw in Texas, who has allowed 20 HRs to RHBs this year.

After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has officially come back down to earth the last couple of months, allowing at least four runs in eight of his last ten starts and pitching into the sixth inning on just three occasions. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a Texas Rangers squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor being the only lefties in the Texas lineup this evening. Miley's strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 18.5%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.6% over that same time period. Miley's 51.0% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Rangers hitters considering he is also surrendering a 23.5% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.8% of the time. With that said, the Rangers remain likely to be one of the most popular offenses on Thursday's slate. With how much ownership the Rangers top bats are expected to attract, it definitely isn't a horrible idea to try to get creative with your Texas stacks or even fade entirely, especially in large field tournaments given the Rangers overall weak numbers against left-handed pitching this season. However, the primary reason the Rangers stats against southpaws are so dismal to this point is due to a small sample size, as none of their players have even come close to eclipsing the 100 plate appearances plateau. Based on numbers from the last two seasons, Adrian Beltre (152 wRC+, .404 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP), Robinson Chirinos (129 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .276 ISO vs LHP), and Mike Napoli (117 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) stand out as the premier plays from this Texas lineup, though Chirinos' spot in the batting order should reserve him to tournament exposure only. Falling into the tier as secondary hitting options are Elvis Andrus (115 wRC+, .348 wOBA), who is a borderline elite play based on his 2017 numbers alone, Jonathan Lucroy (.239 ISO vs LHP), and even Delino DeShields could be worth a speculatory play as a stack filler given his batting order position of lead off.

Anthony Rendon has taken his dissatisfaction about not being named an All-Star out on opposing pitchers since the break with a 397 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% and three HRs, good enough for the top wRC+ in baseball (10 PA min.) by over 50 points. Jesse Chavez has a .345 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season. Another third baseman, rookie Matt Chapman, follows (341 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, two HRs). He faces Blake Snell (RHBs .339 wOBA career). Brandon Phillips has a 326 wRC+, but with just a 26.7 Hard% (one HR) since the break. John Lackey has held RHBs to a .285 wOBA since last season, but with a 35.4 Hard%. Over his last five starts, he's allowed eight HRs with just 14 strikeouts. Three of those HRs have gone to RHBs, who have a 34 Hard% over that span. Mike Napoli (313 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) faces Dylan Bundy. RHBs have a .321 wOBA against him since last season, but with just a 34.7 GB%. Napoli has a 48.5% fly ball rate against RHPs over the same span. Steve Pearce (308 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, two HRs) has mashed LHP since last season (159 wRC+, .302 ISO). RHBs have a .376 wOBA, 36.7 Hard% against Brian Johnson since last season.

The most interesting BvP data on the late slate might be Paul Goldschmidt's record against Clayton Kershaw. In 44 PAs, he has homered twice (four extra-base hits) with 15 Ks. There's nothing too outstanding about that, but on seven BBEs recorded by Statcast, Goldy has a 95.5 mph aEV against Kershaw. Three other batters on the night slate have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight and they are all Texas Rangers (Shin-Soo Choo, Mike Napoli, and Adrian Beltre), who face David Price. All aEVs are between 88 and 92 mph and Choo has the most recorded BBEs with 11. Each has at least 32 PAs against Price with between three and six extra-base hits total. Napoli has struck out in 24 of 50 PAs. Among batters with at least 10 recorded BBEs against tonight's pitcher another Ranger, Elvis Andrus, also has the highest aEV (92 mph). He has just one extra-base hit in 53 PAs though.

The Rangers are at Fenway on a cold and wet day with the wind blowing in from center (14 mph), though Kevin doesn't see the game as a significant weather risk. They are one of three offenses with an implied run line less than four (3.63) against Drew Pomeranz, who has had his struggles this year with hard contact (36.1 Hard%, 9.3% Barrels/BBE) and the lowest GB rate (38.7%) of his career. His 17.2 K-BB% is identical to last season though. While not the top projected pitcher on the slate, he does line up as potentially one of the better bargains for less than $8K on either site. Pomeranz is going to have to extend his outings though. He's thrown fewer than 80 pitches in two of his last three starts and hasn't exceeded four innings in any of them. Texas has a 77 wRC+ and 16.7 K-BB% vs LHP. Considering the weather, quality of opponent, and performance against southpaws, there are no real standouts offensively for the Rangers. Mike Napoli (135 wRC+, .246 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has a 217 wRC+ (63.6 Hard%, 3 HRs) over the last week, but Pomeranz has actually been better vs RHBs (.291 wOBA) since last season (the curveball can be a reverse platoon pitch) and First Base is once again one of the strongest positions on the board tonight.