Peter Bourjos Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Steve Souza scratched again on Wednesday
Souza has been scratched for the second consecutive day. The Rays lineup has shifted quite a bit as a result of the scratch, as Corey Dickerson will now lead off with Peter Bourjos shifting down towards the bottom of the lineup from the #1 spot. Trevor Plouffe will bump up to the second spot in the order, making him a stronger punt play, although we're not interested in targeting the Rays against Dallas Keuchel, who does a tremendous job of limiting hard contact.
Derek Holland allowing a .212 ISO to RHB over the last two seasons
Holland has posted some very poor stats against right-handers since 2016 (610 batters faced), including a 37.6% Hard% (worst on slate), 34.7% GB% (second-worst), 44.0% FB% (second-worst among pitchers with more than 14 TBF), 5.38 xFiP (worst among pitchers with more than 14 TBF), and a .352 wOBA (second-worst). The Rays will roll with six RHB tonight. One of the biggest concerns when going with this team is their K%. PlateIQ shows their current projected lineup has a 27.7% K% agaisnt LHP over the last two years, but Holland has a low 15.4% K% against RHB, which works in their favor. Holland is a sinker ball pitcher, tossing it 47.28% of the time and his second-favorite pitch is the slider (18.35%). Although none of the Rays' right-handers excel against sinkers - they're mostly average or a little below (Bourjos is the exception at 3.28% above average) - five guys are above average when it comes to sliders. Across the league, hitters accumulate 13.67% of their hits against sliders, but Souza (20.33%), Robertson (21.74%), Norris (16.67%) Bourjos (16.79%), and Longoria (13.96%) beat that rate. All of these guys have strong Hard% of at least 33.0% against LHP with Norris and Robertson both topping 44.0%. Plus, those two and Longoria have fly ball rates over 41.0%. Their left-handers aren't as appealing considering Holland's 19.3% Hard%, 52.3% GB%, .239 wOBA, .035 ISO, and 3.32 xFIP against RHB over the past two seasons (122 total batters faced). The five righties mentioned above are appealing options today and Vegas gives the team the fifth-highest projected run total on the main slate (4.79).
Weeks, Collins offer above average bats in top half of lineups at very low costs
While there are potentially a number of value bats on DraftKings, if we're truly looking for cheap bargains, Rickie Weeks (152 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Tyler Collins (113 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are each in the top half of their lineup for $2.6K or less on either site. While most players may try to find the extra few hundred for Brian McCann (vs Andrew Cashner), players who don't mind Catchers batting lower in the order and need more savings could look towards Alex Avila (135 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2016) or Cameron Rupp (148 wRC+, .286 ISO vs LHP since 2016) for $3.1K or less on DK, $2.6K or less on FanDuel. Brandon Guyer (151 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP since 2016) bats sixth against a lefty (Daniel Norris), but costs less than $3K on either site. Not yet confirmed, Andrew Toles (125 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) could bat leadoff against Johnny Cueto for more than the minimum. If players are looking for a below average cheap one in the leadoff spot, Peter Bourjos (78 wRC+ vs LHP since 2016) is your man for just $2.7K on DraftKings.
John Gray has a 21 K% over the last month and career at home, matching a 21.3 HR/FB
The Phillies are probably in the worst spot a visiting team can be in Colorado, facing Jon Gray (25.4 K%), but it's still a decent spot as Gray's 21.4 career K% at home matches his 21.3 HR/FB in that park, which also matches his 21.0 K% over the last month. The Phillies are projected for just above five runs and Gray has a reverse platoon split with RHBs holding a .343 wOBA agianst him since his callup last year. Maikel Franco (120 wRC+, .212 ISO career vs RHP) is the top bat here, but costs $5K on DraftKings, although a red hot Peter Bourjos (202 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% last seven day) is interesting for less than $4K along with Cameron Rupp (107 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this year) behind the plate.
Robbie Ray misses bats (25.6 K%), but gets hit hard (35.3 Hard%) and some RH Phillies bats have been hot
Robbie Ray does miss bats (25.6 K%), but his 28.3 K% over the last month doesn't fit his 9.5 SwStr% that's merely average, perhaps making him a bit over-priced for $9.3K on DraftKings, though still usable for $7.8K on FanDuel against the worst offense in baseball vs LHP (59 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%). However, he has allowed hard contact 35.3% of the time in a park greatly favoring offense making a few hot Phillies bats viable here. Peter Bourjos (99 wRC+ vs LHP this season) has a 235 wRC+ over the last week and bats 2nd. Maikel Franco (98 wRC+, .230 ISO vs LHP career) and Cameron Rupp (136 wRC+, .235 ISO vs LHP since last season) each have a wRC+ above 190 with a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. Tommy Joseph isn't as hot (83 wRC+ last seven days), but has a 184 wRC+ and .267 ISO vs LHP for just $3K.
The Phillies are the worst offense at home (66 wRC+) and 2nd worst vs LHP (59 wRC+)
Robbie Ray has a 24.8 K%, but we often can't take advantage due to a high walk rate (10.2%) and a 19.3 Hard-Soft% that's led to a 16.9 HR/FB in a really tough park this year. He doesn't get a significant upgrade in park tonight, but he does in opposition. The Phillies are the worst offense at home (66 wRC+) and 2nd worst vs LHP (59 wRC+). Ray is one of several usable, high strikeout $7K to $10K arms on either site tonight. Not a single Phillies bat has a 98 wRC+ or better against LHP this year (min. 30 PAs), but at low costs players can still consider a few if paying up for pitching due to Ray's tendency towards hard contact and a .341 wOBA (38.8 Hard%) vs RHBs since last season. Maikel Franco (.239 career ISO vs LHP) and Cameron Rupp (.198 ISO vs LHP since last season), along with Tommy Joseph are the best bets to go deep. Peter Bourjos has a 206 wRC+ over the last week if you need to punt an outfielder.