Trevor Bauer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The good news is that Trevor Bauer will make his Dodger debut against one of the worst teams in baseball. The bad news is that he’ll do so at Coors. Let’s just go ahead and admit the .215 BABIP and 90.9 LOB% are completely unsustainable to start with. That said, his 3.25 xFIP was his only estimator above three, bested by a 2.18 xERA. His 36 K% was a career high by more than five points, his 29.9 K-BB% by exactly seven.

Coors will be a more interesting atmosphere this year because the home team may be so bad that it still pays to roster opposing pitchers. Four of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since last season. But that also doesn’t mean you don’t want to roster potentially cheap Colorado hitters at home either. Sam Hilliard may be the most interesting target there. He costs just $2.3K on DraftKings with a .284 ISO against them in 83 PAs since last season, according to PlateIQ. In the end, Bauer is still probably a pitcher you want to roster here (especially in GPPs) due to the upside. No other pitcher on the board was within five points of his K% last year. While it’s close between and Blake Snell for the top spot tonight, the fact that he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board and pitching in Coors will likely give Bauer the lower ownership rate.

Trevor Bauer reached double digit strikeouts in three of his last four starts, including 12 last time out on three days rest. His 36 K% is second best on this board, but with a 12.9 SwStr% that sits in the middle of it. In fact, over the last month, his strikeout rate has decreased to 32.9% with a 12.3 SwStr%. Bauer has the second best ERA on the board at 1.74, but the top SIERA (2.94), DRA (2.89) and xERA (2.18), the last mark, which includes contact profile, by more than half a run. While neither the .215 BABIP, nor 90.9 LOB% should be thought to be sustainable, the BABIP profile is tremendous (17.8 LD%, 14.7 IFFB%). The lower than expected SwStr% is really the only drawback in his entire 2020 profile. The biggest problem here is that the Braves tied the Dodgers with a 126 wRC+ against RHP and no other offense was better. They combined this with an 18.0 HR/FB vs RHP and 18.1 HR/FB at home this year. The good news is that they’ll throw a predominantly RH lineup at Bauer and batters from that side have just a .271 wOBA (.274 xwOBA) against since 2019. Only one batter in the lineup for Atlanta is below a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while five are above 150 though. This is a tough spot for the potential NL Cy Young winner, but they’re just about all tough spots in the post-season. Bauer has the highest price tag on FanDuel at $11.2K, but only Kyle Hendricks averaged more batters faced per start on this board and Bauer has the strikeout rate advantage by 15.7 points.

Trevor Bauer allowed just two runs with 41 strikeouts through his first four starts with excitement about increased spin rates on all of his pitches. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) and two HRs over 17.2 innings with 20 strikeouts. His strikeout rate has dipped below 30 over the last 30 days with an 11.5 SwStr%. A .216 BABIP and 85.4 LOB% are keeping his ERA below three with his SIERA, FIP and xFIP in the low threes. However, a 1.90 DRA and 2.22 xFIP still confirm his actual overall results thus far. The Cubs are not an easy assignment (106 wRC+, 21.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but favorable weather and increased strikeout upside (Cubs 26.2% vs RHP) should dictate at least some exposure to Bauer in your daily fantasy lineups tonight with the third highest price tag ($10.8K) on FanDuel.

Trevor Bauer has become quite the spin master under the tutelage of Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball, who now serves as a pitching coordinator for the Reds. The spin rate is up significantly on all of his pitches this year and the whiff rate has increased on all but his curve. That said, the 13.2 SwStr% doesn’t fully support his 43.6 K%, but it is in line with his mark two years ago when he generated a 30.8 K. Just as importantly, his walk rate is a career low 7.4%, while his 86.7 mph aEV is more than a full mph below his career best 87.8 mph mark two years back as well. In summation, he’s doing some unsustainable things right now (.140 BABIP, 100 LOB%, 2.2% Barrels/BBE), but there’s visible evidence of improvement there too. With a bullpen that put in some work on Sunday, Bauer should maintain his generally heavy workload in a great matchup in Milwaukee. The Brewers have a 66 wRC+ with a 19.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Bauer is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel by a full $2K tonight, but with Flaherty and Maeda (career high pitch count last time out) having workload concerns tonight, Bauer should be worth the pay up in a high upside spot.