Wade Miley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Monday night pitching slate is a very strange one with $10K priced pitchers owning a 7.5 SwStr% and 21.1 K%, who aren’t anywhere near the top of tonight’s PlateIQ projections. We have two pitchers projected very clearly above the rest of the board and one of them costs less than $9K on both sites. Let’s start with the top projected point per dollar value on either site and that’s Wade Miley. Perhaps we can chalk up the five Padres he walked with just one strikeout in his season debut to just rust. After all, you’re not buying on Miley for the strikeouts and the rest of the profile was absolutely stunning (83.3 GB%, 87.5 mphEV). When he’s right, you’ll generally get about 10 points of separation between strikeout and walk rates with lots of weak ground balls. Players may still not want to roster him on a single pitcher site for $5.7K on FanDuel, but in a secondary DraftKings slot for $4.4K at home against the Pirates (96 wRC+, 20.9 K% vs LHP) without any severe weather considerations…sure, why not? For more on the top projected pitching values tonight, including a mid-range pitcher that projects as the top of the board arm, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Thanks to two horrific starts on September 5th and September 10th where Miley allowed a combined 12 earned runs over just 1/3 inning pitched, his price has taken a sharp decrease despite being in the midst of a very solid season. Though Miley was due for some regression, it’s not all that surprising that his contact-manager style of pitching yields higher estimators than his ERA. Despite a 4.46 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA, Miley has posted a 3.71 ERA that is well out-performing the estimators for a 2nd straight year. Miley’s .297 xwOBA allowed, .330 xwOBACON and 4.7% barrel rate are all among the best in the league among qualified starters and solidify his “contact manager” label. Miley gets a great matchup tonight with an Angels team that doesn’t have much pop without Trout in the lineup. They have just a 64 wRC+ and 26.6% K rate since Trout has been out of the lineup. They’ll have just 4 hitters in the lineup tonight with an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .290 this year. Miley is dirt cheap on DK at $5.7k and is also affordable on Fanduel at $7.5k. The Angels currently have just a 3.19 implied total vs. Miley and the ‘Stros.

Projection systems have pegged Wade Miley for regression all year and continue to despite Miley continuing to post solid start after solid start. Miley’s estimators (4.34 xFIP, 4.52 SIERA) are well ahead of his impressive 3.06 ERA, which is at least partly due to his middling 12.7% K-BB. Miley excels at inducing weak contact and grounders; he’s posted a 53.3% GB rate with a .304 xwOBA on contact that’s among the best in the league among starters. Overall, he’s allowed just a .275 xwOBA and 4.9% barrel rate, which goes to show that the traditional estimators and projection systems are likely misjudging him at least a little bit. Miley gets a great matchup today versus the Mariners, who has just a 25th ranked .290 xwOBA vs. LHP over the past 30 days. The Mariners currently have an implied total of just 3.48 implied runs. Miley projects to have the platoon advantage against 5 of 9 Mariners hitters. He doesn’t have huge upside (20.5% K rate on the year) but we can’t be too picky as pitching is very rough on this slate, and Miley shouldn’t have a problem preventing runs and working deep into the game in this matchup. He also has a good shot at the ‘W’ as the Astros are currently -300 favorites.

With mostly unspectacular career stats in the MLB, projection systems didn’t like Miley to start the year, and they really still don’t as he’s still being pegged as a roughly 4.75 ERA looking forward. Though he’s pitched to a solid 3.51 ERA and 13.3% K-BB so far this year, commonly-used estimators are not buying it as he has a 4.24 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA. Fortunately, Statcast loves Miley as his .277 xwOBA allowed and 5.4% barrel rate allowed rank among the best of qualified starters. He also has just a .311 xwOBA allowed on contact, which helps explain why estimators aren’t as bullish on him as Statcast is. Tonight, Miley is available for just $7.1k on Fanduel and $8.6k on Draftkings in a nice matchup at home versus the Mariners. The Mariners do have a solid 112 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching on the year, though they also have a 25.8% K rate vs. southpaws. Having traded Edwin Encarnacrion and Jay Bruce and still missing Mitch Haniger due to injury, the Mariners lineup tonight will have only one batter (Domingo Santana) with an xwOBA greater than .310 vs. LHP this year. Though Wade Miley’s 21.2% K rate on the year doesn’t scream upside, he does have a 29.5% K rate over the past 30 days. He makes for a solid floor/ceiling play tonight as the Mariners have just a 3.7 implied total tonight.

Wade Miley started out the season with a low 3.24 ERA over the first month, but a 15.2 K% and 4.62 xFIP left a lot to be desired from a fantasy standpoint, and regression was expected. However, Miley has taken a step forward over the last 30 days as he’s improved his K rate to 26% while keeping his walk rate at just 7%, and has put up a 3.86 xFIP / 3.76 SIERA and just a .289 xwOBA allowed. Miley matches up with the Orioles today, who have a 90 wRC+ and 26.2% K rate in 2019. They also have been one of the colder offenses in baseball with just a 27th ranked .297 xwOBA over the past two weeks. Working against Miley today will be a very hitter-friendly umpire in Lance Barksdale, but aside from that Miley looks to be in a very nice spot this afternoon. Miley is a bargain on Fanduel at just $7.5k, though he’s certainly in play as well on Draftkings at $9.1k. The Orioles currently have a 3.63 implied line vs. Miley and the ‘Stros Sunday.