Yordano Ventura Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Yordano Ventura is an up-and-down pitcher who has not been missing many bats over the last two weeks. When Ventura is not whiffing hitters, he finds himself in trouble, explaining why his SIERA over that period is a ballooned 5.11. However, SIERA does not account for the type of contact being surrendered by Ventura, which has been predominately soft contact. Ventura’s hard hit rate over the last 14 days has been an elite 17%, pointing towards avoiding Tigers if he can continue to induce weak contact. Ventura’s strikeout rate does not make him a viable play at the starting pitcher position, but his ability to induce weak contact may make the Tigers hitters a savvy fade today.

Yordano Ventura has occasionally pitched well this season. He’s even walked two or fewer in five of his last six starts, but blew up for six two starts back. He’s also struck out just a total of six over his last three starts. He's in another low strikeout spot tonight (A's 18.8 K% vs RHP), but it is a nice run prevention one. The A's are projected for just 3.5 runs, the second lowest total on the board. Players are probably going to have to get creative and use a pitcher or two they normally wouldn't tonight, so in a spot where there aren't really any coveted bats, maybe you pay $6.6K for Ventura on DraftKings and pray he doesn't walk the park?

Yordano Ventura struck out nine Twins in his last start, but it was just the second time he’s struck out more than six this season. His control continues to be erratic with four walks in three of his last seven starts, but just one each in the other four. With the Tigers currently licking their wounds, at least Miguel Cabrera returns to the lineup. Players might be best served just sticking to the two most potent bats vs RHP here. Ventura doesn't have much of a platoon split with batters from either side having a wOBA a bit above .300 against him since last season. That might work out well enough for Detroit as their top bats are right-handed anyway. J.D. Martinez (137 wRC+, . 245 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Miguel Cabrera (157 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both far ahead of the rest of the lineup.

Yordano Ventura has pitched much better of late, striking out 15 of his last 49 batters with just one walk, shutting down another tough lineup (Detroit) into the seventh inning in his last start. The Cardinals are one of the top offenses in baseball (115 wRC+ on the road, 119 wRC+ vs RHP), so he's not on our radar tonight, but perhaps players should think twice about attacking him tonight. Matt Carpenter and Brandon Moss both have a wRC+ above 170 with an ISO above .300 vs RHP this season, remaining in play, but at high prices tonight. Matt Holliday has continued his strong work against RHP this year (128 wRC+, .227 ISO). He costs under $4K and has a 187 wRC+ with a 55.6 Hard% over the last week.

Yordano Ventura is coming off his best start of the season (7 IP - 1 ER - 1 BB - 10K) and seems to have solved his control problems (3 BBs total last four games), but still has allowed six ERs in two of his last four starts and had struck out three or fewer in six of his previous eight starts. While stopping far short of recommending him tonight, perhaps players might want to reconsider attacking him as hard with the improvement being shown. Miguel Cabrera (170 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP this season) is one bat that remains on the table at a moderate cost (less than $4.5K on DK, $4K on FD) along with the red hot Victor Martinez (148 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this season) for less than $4K on DK, $3K on FD. He has two HRs in 18 career PAs against Ventura with a 95 mph aEV on nine batted balls. He also homered three times last night and has a 58.3 Hard% over the last week.

Yordano Ventura may have cut down on the walks over the last month, but he also has just a 4.0 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He's lost any usefulness as a daily fantasy starter. Something that's interesting according to Baseball Savant's BvP exit velocity readings is that five different Orioles (Jones, Trumbo, Davis, Alvarez, and Schoop) all have an aEV above 93.5 mph against Ventura since Statcast began tracking last season. Davis only has one batted ball, but all of the others have at least four with Jones (2 HRs) the only one to leave the yard against Yordano in his career. In addition, Machado, Trumbo, and Kim all have a wRC+ above 160 vs RHP this season and a hard hit rate above 45% over the last week. Of the top seven tonight, only Kim has an ISO below .198 since last season vs RHP. This is a very stackable offense with Ventura in an incredibly dangerous spot tonight.

Yordano Ventura has his walk rate down to 13.1% with a 9.9 BB% in May and no walks in his last start, but he walked four batters from the same lineup in the start prior and had just a 12.1 K% (4.5 SwStr%) in May too. Cleveland has a 9.5 BB% vs RHP this year and will challenge his control. Walks don't really win daily fantasy contests though and Ventura is not allowing a ton of hard contact, so Cleveland may not be the best lineup to attack with. The middle of the order should have some ducks on the pond though, so if you're looking for an inexpensive pivot from Coors, Mike Napoli has improved against RHP this season (105 wRC+, .256 ISO). Carlos Santana has hit RHP even better (147 wRC+, .287 ISO) this season, but provides less salary relief. Jason Kipnis (126 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP this season) might score a couple of those runs, but also carries a moderate price tag.

Melky Cabrera will bat cleanup for the White Sox today and face Yordano Ventura. Ventura has been worth targeting for the majority of the year, never reaching the form he showed us at times last year. He has been giving up an xFIP of 6.48 to LHBs this year, along with a 39% FB% and a 12.9% HR/FB rate. This is to point out that his 1.42 HR/9 allowed to lefties can not be attributed to bad luck, and his struggles will probably continue against LHB. While Ventura is pitching at home today, Melky Cabrera and his 116 wRC+ versus RHP make for a fine way to target Ventura today.

Yordano Ventura may still be a name brand to some, but he has not pitched like a top shelf pitcher in 2016. His massive 6.80 xFIP against left-handed batters has really hurt his ability to string together quality innings. Ventura’s xFIP is 6.59 away, much higher than his 4.53 xFIP at home, and he will be pitching in Chicago today. Melky Cabrera is getting the opportunity to bat cleanup today and will have the benefit of batting from the left side. Cabrera finished the 2015 season with an ISO of 0.131 against RHP, making him a solid mid-priced outfield option.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (125 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 234 wRC+ out of the 9th spot in the lineup over the last week and gets a small bump up two spots, but it's a start and may get him an extra opportunity tonight. Being that far down the lineup for $4K still makes him a difficult roster, but he should get his chances against a pitcher that can no longer find the plate (-1.2 K-BB% in 2016) in Yordano Ventura. The Red Sox have a 131 wRC+ vs RHP this season and a 183 wRC+ over the last week, though only a middling 3.67 run projection tonight. Regardless, David Ortiz (172 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top 1B option tonight, though maybe not a top value for almost $5K on DK and $4K on FD. He has a 253 foot avg distance on batted balls and 95 mph aEV this year with a 193 wRC+ over the last week. It's likely just a question of where the walks and hits fall in this lineup as walks are great for real baseball, but less valuable in a daily fantasy setting. Having those walks out on the bases when the player you roster is batting is very valuable though.