| Date | Opp | DKSAL | FDSAL | DKFPTS | FDFPTS | k | ip | ab | sho | w | hra | l | er | cg | ha | 3ba | bba | sba | ibba | whip | hbp | qstart | 1ba | k/9 | 2ba |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-24 | @ TOR | $6.9K | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-04-21 | @ TB | $6.2K | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-04-14 | vs. BAL | $6.8K | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-04-12 | @ MIN | $6.7K | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-03-27 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-03-18 | vs. LAD | -- | -- | -5.5 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-03-10 | @ CHC | -- | -- | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022-09-12 | @ MIA | $6.2K | -- | -7.65 | -8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1 |
| 2022-09-02 | @ BOS | $6.2K | $6.2K | 1.05 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7.71 | 1 |
| 2022-08-22 | @ MIN | $6.3K | $6.5K | 10.05 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 | 0 |
| 2022-07-15 | vs. SEA | $6.2K | $6.5K | -1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| 2021-09-28 | vs. LAA | $6.2K | $6.7K | 12.25 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2021-09-20 | @ NYY | $6.3K | $6.7K | -4.5 | 1 | 1 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.7 | 0 |
| 2021-09-13 | vs. HOU | $6.7K | $6.7K | -3.15 | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2.18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7.38 | 0 |
| 2021-09-06 | @ LAA | $6.2K | $6.7K | 29.7 | 49 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10.5 | 0 |
| 2021-08-30 | vs. COL | $4.7K | -- | 20.85 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 | 1 |
A.J. Alexy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Debuting Rookie in a Great Spot Plugs in Well as Cheap SP2
Aside from the four pitchers priced above $9K on both sites, Monday night’s slate includes two pitchers returning from the IL, who are likely to be on very conservative pitch counts (Corey Kluber, Chris Paddack), along with A.J. Alexy, making his major league debut and Chris Ellis, who makes his second. The former is a marginally regarded prospect (19th in the organization with a 40+ FV grade via Fangraphs), projecting as a multi-inning weapon who can miss bats, but struggles with control. A 33.3 K% and 10.5 BB% in three AAA starts (14.2 innings) plus a 28.8 K% and 10.6 BB% in 50.1 AA innings split between starting and relief seems to illustrate that. That’s more than enough to consider against the Rockies (67 wRC+ on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP) in Texas for just $4.7K on DraftKings. Ellis (already 28), on the other hand, has been kicking around AAA since 2016, starting his first major league game in his third appearance (for three different teams) just last week, striking out three of 13 Angels, allowing three runs of five hits without a walk over three innings. Over seven innings, he’s generated just 23.5% of his contact on the ground with a 92.3 mph EV. A 22.7 K% at AAA this year is his highest mark at the level, but includes a 10.9 BB% with just a 39.8 GB%. The Blue Jays should be more than he can handle.
There really aren’t any additional low priced options. Johnny Cueto has probably exceeded expectations at the back of the San Francisco rotation and costs less than $8K. While his 3.73 ERA is below all of his estimators, it’s only more than half a run removed from a 4.32 SIERA and confusing 4.75 xERA based on a 14.7 K-BB%, 38.1 GB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE. He’s gone six straight starts without completing six innings though and the projected Milwaukee lineup includes just one batters above a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Josiah Gray has thrown 36 major league innings with a 27.8 K% and 17.4 SwStr% that illustrates elite strikeout upside. There are some issues in the contact profile, including a 28.9 GB% that’s led to 12.6% Barrels/BBE, despite just an 87.6 mph EV. His 3.75 ERA is below all estimators (.217 BABIP, 100 LOB%), ranging from a 3.91 xERA to a 6.33 FIP (22.6 HR/FB). He’s averaging one home run and barrel every three innings. While not good, it seems a bit unlucky that every barrel he’s allowed has left the yard. Washington may be a difficult pitching environment tonight with a potential weather boost for hitters and Gray costs above $8K on both sites, though reaches $9K on neither. While three batters in the projected Philadelphia lineup exceed a 26 K% vs RHP, nobody else is above 20.3%.
German Marquez costs just above $9K on FanDuel and $600 less on DraftKings. He has allowed seven home runs (21.9 HR/FB) with a 5.97 ERA over his last seven starts. The good news is that his strikeout rate has remained stable at a quarter of batters faced with just eight barrels (7.2%) over this span. His FIP is still just 4.26 with a 3.34 xFIP over this span. In addition to the home runs, he has a .327 BABIP and 63.1 LOB% during this stretch. His 4.02 season ERA is above all estimators, ranging from a 3.28 DRA to a 3.88 SIERA. Texas is a large park upgrade, while the projected lineup for the Rangers includes seven batters above a 23 K% vs RHP this season and only three above a .170 ISO. Marquez is certainly a viable stand alone alternative tonight.
Luis Garcia has just five quality starts over his last 12 outings, but that’s more due to intention workload limitations than performance. He hit 90 pitches for the first time in eight starts last time out. His 28.9 K% is fourth best on the board and while his 3.21 ERA is below all of his estimators, all are within half a run. The workload limitations explain a price tag of $9.2K or less on either site in a great spot in Seattle tonight. Not only is it one of the top pitcher’s parks in the league, but the Mariners have just a 90 wRC+ at home and 92 wRC+ vs RHP. The average strikeout rate for tonight’s projected starting lineup for Seattle is 23.3%, according to PlateIQ.