A.J. Cole Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While A.J. Cole misses bats at a near league average rate and increased his ground ball rate to league average as well in his 52 inning major league sample, his 3.81 was way over-stated by an 83.1 LOB%. Estimators were much higher and LHBs, in particular, pummeled him with a .414 wOBA (.379 career), backed by a .393 xwOBA and 46.9 Hard%. Freddie Freeman needs no invitation to destroy right-handed pitching (162 wRC+, .288 ISO since last season), though we're not really looking at anyone else with strong numbers against righties. Only Ryan Flaherty (123) is also above a 102 wRC+ against RHP since last year with nobody else above a .158 ISO. Add in the fact that Kevin's forecast is calling for gusting winds blowing in from right and Freeman seems the only strong play here.

In all honesty, there is not a whole lot to love with this matchup, but the pitching options are just awful on this slate. We shouldn't worry about the recent game log for A.J. Cole, as he had one rough start followed by another where he got ejected for throwing at an opposing hitter. This is a favorable matchup against a Marlins team that is likely ready to just end the season at this point. They’ve had massive struggles offensively in the second half, and they obviously have had to endure an unbelievable tragedy. Cole has a reasonable 4.32 SIERA and a solid hard contact rate allowed of just 24.2%. His strikeout rate is 24.3%, which is above league average, but he has never had that type of strikeout upside in the minors. It's viable to go here on a night dearth of starting pitching options.

A.J. Cole has an 18.0 K-BB% and 22.5 Hard% through five starts (28.2 IP), so why in the world does he have a 4.71 ERA with an xFIP and FIP approaching five? No qualified pitcher has a fly ball rate above 50%. His is 57.5%. The good news is that while none of what he's been doing is likely to be sustained to such extremes, there's been more good than bad and he's in a favorable park for a fly ball pitcher in Miami tonight. The Marllins do have all of their power bats back and "scattered" through the lineup. Let's just say that Don Mattingly's lineup construction seems to do favors for opposing pitchers, like batting Martin Prado (88 wRC+, .098 ISO vs RHP this season) third and Justin Bour (125 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP this season) sixth. The Marlins haven't hit for a lot of power in this park even with a full lineup (9.2 H/FB at home). While the middle three batters in the order all have an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season. The rest of the lineup is well below average, aside from Ozuna, who is just average (97 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP this season). While Yelich (145 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP this season) and Bour both have quite a bit of value for less than $3K on FanDuel against a pitcher who has allowed a .349 wOBA to LHBs since last season, Cole is a very reasonable alternative or compliment to the elite arms tonight at a very reasonable price in a favorable spot.

A.J. Cole struck out eight batters for the second time in four starts last time, adding a -3.2 Hard-Soft% to an 18.8 K-BB% in 23.2 innings. There are some crazy kinks in his batted ball profile, such as more popups (eight) than line drives (six), but also six HRs despite all of the weak contact because he has such an extreme fly ball rate (0.4 GB/FB). Adjustments should occur along the way, but he's shown some potential in a 10.6 SwStr% and costs just $6K on FanDuel. A 26% strikeout rate will play even with a price tag $2K higher on DraftKings, though the HR risk is more of a concern. Washington actually plays pitcher friendly for power even though it's a more neutral overall run environment. Expensive Mets bats are not on the daily fantasy radar tonight, projected to score just four runs.

A.J. Cole has a 13.2 K-BB% through three starts that nearly matches his 13.9 K-BB% at AAA this season with both his walk and strikeout rates each a bit higher. He has amazingly generated just a 21.6 GB%, but with 29.4% weak contact, yet four HRs because nearly 70% of his contact has been in the air. He does have nearly as many popups (11) as ground balls (8) though. His 3.86 ERA is well below estimators above five due to a .170 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%. None of this seems all that sustainable and he did allow 16 HRs in 124 AAA innings this season, but is perhaps flyer worthy for $6.5K on FanDuel where his team might be able to get him 12 points against the Phillies, projected for just 3.6 runs with an 81 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Offensively, perhaps Andres Blanco (116 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is worth a look with a bump up the order for just $2.6K on FanDuel with SS eligibility.

Asdrubal Cabrera (105 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Yoenis Cespedes (143 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP since 2015) return after a night off on a wet field with nagging leg injuries, but shame on you if that was enough of a reason to bench the hottest SS in the land because Cabrera (365 wRC+, 34.8 Hard%) still hit a PH homer and is a nice value for $2.9K on FanDuel tonight. A.J. Cole is not much of a prospect anymore, but did pitch well in one of his two starts and has at least gotten his strikeout rate back up to league average (20.5%) at AAA this season. There's still a bit of unknown here, so we're not looking to load up against Cole, but this is a lineup that's hitting the ball hard with Cespedes joining Cabrera with Granderson (133 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Bruce (109 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as Mets batters who have a strong track record against RHP and a hard hit rate above 43% over the last week.

A.J. Cole will be replacing Stephen Strasburg tonight in a matchup against Baltimore. Cole has spent the entire season in AAA so we don't really have any recent major league stats to analyze. In his last four starts in the minors, Cole has gone no fewer than seven innings, though he has given up seven home runs over that stretch as well. His 4.26 ERA in AAA this season is also uninspiring. There is definitely a solid chance that Orioles can get to him in this spot. Manny Machado (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (137 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .285 ISO vs RHP), Adam Jones (120 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .216 ISO vs RHP) are the top one off options and are a crucial part of Baltimore stacks in tournaments. We can honestly consider any other Orioles hitters to round out stacks, as their entire lineup hits right-handed pitching well.