A.J. Griffin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Collin McHugh has only pitched in two games in a year in which Logan Morrison has had a breakout, so it's a bit of surprise that none of his four HRs against McHugh have come this season. Over the past two years, his seven BBEs have a 104.9 mph aEV. It would lend one to think he's in a good spot tonight, but Lucas Duda is also red hot, so players will have a decision to make if they like a Tampa Bay first baseman tonight. Jason Castro also has four HRs against A.J. Griffin (18 PAs) with a 98.2 mph aEV on eight BBEs. While Griffiin is an extreme fly ball pitcher, Castro generally bats at the bottom of the order and weather conditions are expected to be awful in Minnesota tonight. Hanley Ramirez also has a pair of HRs in 11 PAs against Miguel Gonzalez with a 103.7 mph aEV on eight BBEs. First Base is very crowded tonight. The Red Sox also have dual first base threats and the highest projected run line tonight. Brandon Guyer is unlikely to play against Sonny Gray, unless Francona uses BvP to build his lineup. Guyer has two HRs and a 96.4 mph aEV on seven BBEs against Gray. Mookie Betts is one of two batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's opposing pitcher and the only one with an aEV above 90 mph (92.3 mph), but he has only one HR with no extra-base hits in 20 PAs against Gonzalez.

A.J. Griffin is coming off of a fantastic start on the road against the Oakland Athletics his last time out in which he struck out eight and allowed no earned runs in six innings of work. Griffin often gets a bad rap among the DFS community as a below-average starting pitcher, but he is actually much better than typically given credit for, evidenced by his solid career strikeout rate (20.7%) and walk rate (7.1%). His strikeout rate has jumped to 26.7% through three starts this season, but this is likely attributed to the limited sample size since nothing in Griffin's peripheral metrics implies a valid reason for the uptick in punchouts. Griffin's primary downfall comes in the home run department where he has traditionally allowed a high fly ball rate (53.8% in 2017) that isn't helped by a higher than league average hard hit rate. Unfortunately, this makes Griffin a frustrating pitcher to stack against if the BABIP and HR/FB rates go his way, and this is compounded further this afternoon by the fact that this Astros squad can be a frustrating offense to stack given their boom or bust nature. Considering Griffin lacks any pronounced splits over the course of his career, this is a perfect spot to search for some power upside in tournaments with Astros from both sides of the plate. That leads us to three big bats in Carlos Correa (130 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .190 ISO vs RHP since 2016), George Springer (113 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .170 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Brian McCann (career .201 ISO vs RHP) for tournaments, with Jose Altuve (151 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Yulieski Gurriel (135 wRC+, .364 wOBA vs RHP since 2016) being viable in cash games as well.

Tonight's bargain team is led by middle infield options, all multi-position eligible on DraftKings. Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP career) faces Lance Lynn (.352 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015) from the leadoff spot. He's 2B/OF eligible on DraftKings, where he's $3K, but just $2.1K on FanDuel, where he's a SS. Greg Garcia (118 wRC+, .112 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a similarly priced 3B/SS on DK, 2B on FD. He bats 6th against Ivan Nova (.372 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015). Another name to keep an eye on is Kike Hernandez (138 wRC+, .226 ISO vs LHP since 2015) if he bats leadoff tonight against the hard contact prone Robbie Ray (.332 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015). He's an Outfielder on FanDuel, but SS eligible as well and actually cheaper ($2.7K) on DraftKings. Another bargain OF bat tonight is Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since last season) at $2.6K or below on either site against A.J. Griffin (.411 wOBA vs LBs since last year). Jed Lowrie ($2.9K DK, $2.3K FD) isn't much against RHP (79 wRC+, .106 ISO since 2015), but gets to face A.J. Griffin batting 3rd as well.

The RotoGrinders HR Predictor has been on target early this season and it has a bullseye on Giancarlo Stanton tonight. His 8.85% leads all players in a matchup against Ariel Miranda, who has already allowed three HRs to RHBs this season, after allowing 11 of his 12 to them last year as well. Stanton has a 178 wRC+ and .406 ISO vs LHP since 2015. Khris Davis (7.32%) is second most likely to homer. Although A.J. Griffin has been more competent against RHBs (.300 wOBA, 34.2 Hard% since last year), Davis has a .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015 and is facing a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact in the air. Eric Thames (6.8%), Chris Carter (6.4%) and Marcell Ozuna (6.33%) are the other three players to exceed 6%. None of those names should come as a surprise.

Freddie Freeman is followed by a pair of Cubs (Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant) atop the RotoGrinders projections tonight. While all are great bats, off to strong starts (via wRC+), Freeman clearly has the better matchup against Jered Weaver. Chase Anderson hasn't been bad in his first two starts. Matt Joyce (131 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is the only batter projected for more than 2.5 points per $1K of salary on DraftKings and should hit at the top of the lineup against A.J. Griffin (.411 wOBA, 44.5 Hard%, 27.6 GB% vs LHBs since 2015). Joyce is joined on FanDuel by potential top values in J.T. Realmuto (79 wRC+, .167 ISO vs LHP since 2016) against Ariel Miranda (.303 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% vs RHBs career) and Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP), who is almost the minimum against Lance Lynn (.352 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015). Top pitchers are projected to be the top priced ones with Salazar and Lackey followed closely by Ray, though Charlie Morton and his increased velocity is projected for the most value on either site. He can be had for right around $6.5K in both places. Players can see projected point totals for all players on the RotoGrinders Projections page.

The Oakland A's have a middling projection of just 4.5 runs tonight, but could make for an interesting LH stacking proposition under favorable Texas conditions against a A.J. Griffin, who allowed a .406 wOBA and 44.4 Hard% to lefties last year. Jed Lowrie has not hit RHP well (73 wRC+ since 2015), but is off to a hot start this season overall (197 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%). Stephen Vogt (115 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an affordable Catcher who has made 44.7% of his contact in the air against RHP since 2015. Matt Joyce (141 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last year) is extremely cheap at the top of the order and the other LH bat, Yonder Alonso (101 wRC+, .114 ISO vs RHP since 2015), well, he's a player in the lineup too. Maybe players should consider sticking to batters higher in the order. Griffin has been much better against RHBs (.304 wOBA, 32.2 Hard%), but Khris Davis (124 wRC+, .274 ISO since 2015) and Ryon Healy (131 wRC+, .213 ISO career) have both been very successful against RHP.

A.J. Griffin did not allow a HR for only the second time in 16 starts his last time out. That’s because he walked four of the first 13 batters he faced and was lifted in the second inning. Unfortunately, the top bat in the Milwaukee lineup (Ryan Braun) is out tonight and perhaps even more unfortunately, the Brewers have only two LHBs, both with average power at best because LHBs have a .408 wOBA and .449 ISO with 18 of the 26 HRs allowed by Griffin this season, while RHBs have just a .291 wOBA and eight HRs. That makes Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+, .140 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Scooter Gennett (91 wRC+, .143 ISO vs RHP since 2015) the bats to look most closely at in this lineup. Villar (139) is the only batter in the lineup with a wRC+ above 75 over the last week.

A.J. Griffin allowed two more HRs in his last start. That’s now 16 over his last eight starts and at least one in 15 straight. A 0.61 GB/FB and 38.2 Hard% isn't working out well in Texas. The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (16.2% vs RHP). That's a lot of opportunities for HRs tonight. The issue is that LHBs have a .410 wOBA with 18 HRs against Griffin, while RHBs have just a .279 wOBA with eight HRs. Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is on the clock tonight. That's about the most obvious pick tonight, but he does cost a small fortune (in DFS terms anyway). Where does the power come from after that though? Three LHBs, all bottom half of the order, with only Nick Buss (104 wRC+, .200 ISO) showing more power than a .129 ISO ISO vs RHP. Griffin is likely to allow a HR and maybe even two, but will Trout hit both? He has homered twice in 23 PAs against Griffin. Pujols has one in 14 PAs.

A.J. Griffin just broke a streak of 11 straight starts with a HR (17 of his overall 19 allowed this season), most of them (seven) on the road. He has competed six innings in just two of his last 13 starts. A 79.5 LOB% has kept his 4.39 ERA from being even higher and he faces a dangerous offense with quite a bit of power at home tonight. A lot of that power is RH though and Griffin has allowed 13 HRs with a .387 wOBA to LHBs, while he's been reasonable against RHBs (.291 wOBA, six HRs). That doesn't completely remove guys like Correa (133 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP career) and Altuve (159 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season) from consideration, but ups the value of guys like Rasmus (99 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $3.6K or less on either site and Jason Castro (103 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $2.5K on FanDuel.