Aaron Civale Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Covering some low cost (< $7K) SP2 potentials for DraftKings players…Aaron Civale is currently PlateIQ’s top point per dollar projection. How in the world is he registering a 9.85 ERA with a 15.6 K-BB%? A 91.9 mph EV and 13.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 24.7 GB% would be the answer. Estimators range widely…incredibly widely…from a 3.99 SIERA to a 7.75 DRA. The Tigers have a 73 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP and they’ve been even worse on the road (68 wRC+, 25.6 K%), but Weather Edge currently projects some extremely hitter friendly weather in Cleveland tonight.

Devin Smeltzer both walked and struck out two of 19 Guardians in his first start of the season. He now has 74.2 innings of major league work over four seasons with a 12.3 K-BB% and 38.4 GB%. He hasn’t allowed a single barrel over his last 26 batted balls, which covers all of his 2021 and 2022 major league work. He’s currently the third best projected point per dollar value for DraftKings tonight. The Royals have just a 90 wRC+ and 5.9 HR/FB vs LHP and are without the services of Sal Perez, but they don’t strike out a lot (18% vs LHP). At $5.1K though, Smeltzer is the cheapest pitcher on the board.

Tyler Wells has a high pitch count of 75 in his seven starts, over which he carries just a 16.2 K% with a single game high of four, accomplished twice this year. He’s walked just four batters, but a 3.56 xERA (87.7 mph EV) is his only estimator below four. Optimistically here, Camden has been playing as more of a pitcher’s park this year when the Yankees aren’t present, Wells costs less than $6K and the Rays strike out a ton (25.1% vs LHP).

This is a somewhat difficult pitching board on a six game slate as we’re short on good pitchers in decent spots, but have plenty of marginal pitchers with normally heavy workloads, who probably won’t win you a GPP, but may have higher floors. We’re talking about guys like Aaron Civale and Merrill Kelly, who have estimators above four, but average nearly three full times through the batting order per outing. One name we have to mention because he is the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($9.8K), but a full $1K less on FanDuel, is Tyler Mahle. has struck out 34 of his last 93 batters (13.9 SwStr%) against the Rockies and other marginal offenses of the NL Central. His season strikeout rate, now a touch below 30% (29.6%) and just 6.4% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are within half a run of a 3.39 ERA, the worst being a 3.55 xFIP. All of his pitches have a 30+ Whiff% in June with his splitter being the real standout pitch this year (.235 wOBA, 35.8 Whiff%). This is all great, so what’s the problem? First of all is a healthier Minnesota offense with a 102 wRC+ and 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year, though more frustratingly, he’s only completed six innings or faced more than 23 batters in five of 14 starts this year. However, three of those five efforts have come in his last three starts and he’s thrown at least 95 pitchers in four straight with his first 100 pitch effort of the season last time out (107), so perhaps the reigns are loosening.

Civale went from throwing his best game of the season against the Mariners to a clunker against the Orioles. Overall, a complete overhaul of his arsenal hasn’t really led to much of an improved performance, if any. The results include a 3.48 ERA, but all estimators are a bit above four with a single digit SwStr% and strikeout rate below 20%. That said, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, which makes him more of a quality start candidate and a stronger value on FanDuel ($8K), where he’s $500 cheaper than DraftKings. By most metrics (14.3 K-BB%, 42.4 GB%, 89.7 mph EV), Kelly is a very average pitcher (4.28 SIERA & FIP), though a 63.6 LOB% results in an ERA above five. Statcast is the most pessimistic on him (4.52 xERA). The 21.4 K% (9.0 SwStr%) is below average, but he has a great matchup (Brewers 82 wRC+, 25.6 K% vs RHP), has completed six innings in half of his 14 starts (though only four quality starts) and costs only $6.2 K on FanDuel. The Diamondbacks seem content to continue letting him pitch deep into games no matter what the results.

Combing the bottom half of the board for potential SP2 options on DraftKings is even more difficult. Kyle Gibson & Jake Odorizzi cost less than $6.5K, but for a reason. Gibson has an 18.3 K% (8.3 SwStr%) over his last five starts and his season strikeout rate is now just 19.9%. His contact neutral estimators (SIERA, xFIP) are now above four (.244 BABIP, 84 LOB%), but with a 51.6 GB% and just 4.1% Barrels/BBE, his FIP (3.37) and xERA (3.11) remain All-Star quality metrics. He’s thrown 11 quality starts in 12 attempts since his opening day fiasco. The A’s have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP and only two batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. He may be the better overall value of the two.

Odorizzi piggybacked Lance McCullers last time out, completing four scoreless innings. He has a 5.68 ERA without a quality start yet, but a 17.1 K-BB% and 60.9 LOB%. A 35.2 GB% and 90.8 mph EV are not helping a 17.2 HR/FB. Yet, his 7.0% Barrels/BBE is better than average and very close to his career rate. In fact, his 3.86 xERA is the best estimator he has. The Orioles have an 85 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. Odorizzi is the more volatile pitcher he, but may have more upside.

Aaron Civale struck out 18 of his first 48 batters with a 14.1 SwStr%, but just eight of 53 with a 7.8 SwStr% since and that includes just three Tigers last time out. That still leaves him with a healthy 22.7 K-BB%, 3.60 ERA, 3.45 SIERA, 3.81 DRA and 3.05 xERA on the season, all of which are top end of the rotation stuff. He may not be that, but he should be good in a favorable matchup here. The Pirates have a stunning 53 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% vs RHP this year. The lineup for the Pirates offers just one batters above an 86 wRC+ this year and Civale has held batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA for his career. Additionally, a heavy workload for the bullpen in an extra-inning game yesterday may mean the Indians hang with Civale a little longer here, although he was already pushing fairly deep into games. Civale is the fourth most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.5K) with a strong shot at a Quality Start.

Aaron Civale struck out just five of 26 batters with a 5.1 SwStr% in his third start after nine in each of his first two. It was his second time out against the White Sox and he decided to go with more of a four pitch mix, dropping his changeup to 2% and throwing more fastballs, his only pitch under a 22% whiff rate this season (7.4%). He still proceeded to throw seven innings of one run ball, generating a season high 55 GB%. Walking just two batters, he’s allowed just 2.0% Barrels/BBE this season. His .227 xwOBA and 2.01 xERA are both lowest on the board. While the Tigers have smoked LHP, they have just an 81 wRC+ and league high 31.2 K% vs RHP. Without Cron, they have virtually nobody in the lineup with a history of hitting RHP well and Civale has held batters from either side of the plate below a .290 wOBA & xwOBA since debuting. While we can’t confidently call Civale the top pitcher on a loaded board at this point, we can potentially see him being the top value at $9.6K on FanDuel. He’s in a high upside spot with one of the best chances of producing a Quality Start and a Win.

Aaron Civale was a sure regression candidate from a .250 BABIP and 6.8 HR/FB last season. Instead, he decided to throw five different pitches in excess of 10% through two starts and has struck out 18 of his first 48 batters. The 14.1 SwStr% is over five points above last year’s mark (8.8%). Three of the five pitches (curveball, cutter, changeup) are above a 40% whiff rate according to Statcast. Amazingly, he’s already halfway to his 2019 HR total with two and the BABIP is .370. So there’s that regression for you. The White Sox have a team 120 wRC+ this year, so it’s not an easy spot for him in Chicago, but there are some strikeout for him in a lineup he’s already dominated once this year. Civale has held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA in his career and neither get to above .300 by xwOBA either. Despite the 12 game slate, the board is lacking in Ace level pitchers tonight, which makes Civale a solid buy at $9.3K on FanDuel tonight.