Aaron Sanchez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Some of the highest upside spots on the board belong to some of the highest priced pitchers tonight (Giolito, Buehler, Javier), which may differentiate lineups enough that players don’t even think about paying down tonight, but if you need two arms (DraftKings) or are looking for some upside in a more marginally priced hurler…it becomes a difficult endeavor, even on a 13 game slate. Additional high upside spots belong to Aaron Sanchez (vs Rockies), Adrian Houser (vs Marlins), Daniel Castano (at Brewers), Franke Montas (at Rays) and Jose Quintana (at Rangers). The first three are all below a 20 K% this year. In fact, Houser and Castano combined reach exactly 20% in Milwaukee (not average, but sum). These are simply arms you may not be able to roster tonight, especially at Houser’s $8K cost on DraftKings. Sanchez is an interesting option in a great spot. Three of the first four batters in the projected Colorado lineup are above a 26 K% vs RHP since 2019. He’s been succeeding despite massively reduced velocity due to an abundance of weak ground balls: 3.4% Barrels/BBE, 88.2 mph EV and 59.3 GB%.

Montas is a volatile pitcher facing a volatile lineup in a negative run environment. He has a 23.3 K% and 12.3 SwStr%. However, he’s now allowed 10 Barrels (16.7%) with five of them leaving the yard. His splitter has a 60% whiff rate, but he’s only throwing it 15% of the time. The Rays offer strikeouts (seven in projected lineup 23% or higher vs RHP since 2019), but three of the first four also are above a .350 wOBA and .240 ISO vs RHP over the same span. Quintana has struck out 17 of the 54 batters he’s faced this year (12 SwStr%), but also walked 11. All the walks and strikeouts, along with a 50% ground ball rates are new elements to his game at this late stage of his career. It’s small sample stuff that he likely won’t sustain, but there’s a chance a Texas lineup that projects five bats above a 27 K% vs LHP since 2019 can help him out a bit longer.

Sanchez is within $300 of $7K, Quintana is below that mark and Montas is just less than $7.5K on either site. One other high risk pitcher to look at might be Ian Anderson. Nobody expected him to maintain his ridiculous 2020 numbers. The strikeout rate is down (24.5%, 11.3 SwStr%) and the walk rate is up (11.7%). He’s still generating ground balls (52.6%), but he’s already allowed seven Barrels (11.7%) after just one last year. A recent Fangraphs article highlighted an altered release point. The projected lineup for the Cubs includes five batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019, but they also have a team 118 wRC+ over the last week, sixth best in the majors.

Aaron Sanchez has been fairly dominant in his first two starts since putting the magic uniform on (11 IP – 3 H – 1 R – 5 BB – 12 K – 43 BF) until the clock struck midnight in Oakland last time out (5.1 IP – 4 HR – 3 K – 25 BF). Considering the strong outings came at home against the Mariners and in Baltimore, one might wonder if much has really changed yet. Sure, the Astros have him throwing more curveballs, but his velocity has also dropped about a mile per hour. Some of this would even be a concern if Sanchez weren’t facing the worst offense on the board in one of the most negative run environments. The Tigers own a 74 wRC+ with a 26.6 K% and 10.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year. With an ERA and estimators right around four over the last 30 days, which includes his last two starts with Toronto, and a supporting .281 xwOBA over that same span, Sanchez should be a bargain for just $6.8K on DraftKings.

It has only been one start, but it seems that the Astros have worked their magic with yet another starter. In his first start with the Astros, Aaron Sanchez threw 6 no-hit innings, striking out 6 while waking only 2. He posted a 13% SwStr, 33.3% hard contact rate and a .201 xwOBA allowed. He didn’t throw a single sinker, which had been his worst pitch in terms of xwOBA allowed and whiff rate, after previously throwing it 22% of the time. Sanchez also increased his curveball usage up to 30.4% from 22.6% in his first start, noteworthy because it has been by far his best pitch (.235 xwOBA allowed, 37% whiff rate). Tonight, Sanchez gets a great matchup with the Orioles who have just an 87 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Sanchez remains at an affordable price across the industry; he’s just $6.9k on Draftkings and $8.2k on Fanduel. If you are not sold on Sanchez after a 1 game sample size, consider that he has actually been pitching much better over the past month; he comes into tonight’s game with a 3.92 SIERA, 20.2% K-BB and 1.16 WHIP over the past 30 days. The Orioles have a 3.94 implied line tonight vs. Sanchez.

The Astros are well known for working their magic with starters, and it’s quite possible Aaron Sanchez makes some adjustments in Houston that lead to him being a much more effective pitcher. Sanchez is a former top prospect who has previously proven himself at the MLB level; over 284 innings in 2015 and 2016, Sanchez posted a 3.07 ERA, .283 wOBA allowed and 3.92 xFIP. Even if Sanchez can’t get back to that level, he is due for some positive regression anyways as his ERA (6.07) is a full run higher than all his traditional estimators. Sanchez was also beginning to show improvements before the trade, with a 4.27 xFIP, 4.21 SIERA, 23.7% K rate, 6.1% BB rate and just a .297 xwOBA allowed over 25 2/3 innings in the past 30 days. Sanchez gets a matchup tonight with the Mariners, who have just a .306 xwOBA and 25.5% K rate vs. RHP over the last 30 days. The most appealing aspect of Sanchez tonight is his price; he’ll cost just $5.3k on Draftkings and $6.6k on Fanduel. The Mariners have just a 4.28 implied line vs. Sanchez, and he’ll have a good shot at a ‘W’ as the Astros are currently -220 favorites tonight.

Aaron Sanchez has failed to allow at least four runs in just one of his last nine starts and that was against Baltimore where he still walked four and allowed a HR. His 5.0 K-BB%, 6.26 ERA, 8.00 DRA, 24 LD%, .360 xwOBA and 89.9 mph aEV (42.8% 95+ mph EV) are just some of the numbers that will entice daily fantasy players to load up their lineups with Cleveland bats despite a mere 95 wRC+ vs RHP. The Indians also have just a 14.5 K% and 37.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week though, both best in the majors. Batters from either side of the plate have hammered Sanchez over the last 12 months. Neither side drops below a .348 wOBA or xwOBA. Francisco Lindor (109 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Oscar Mercado (119 wRC+, .191 ISO) are both above a 150 wRC+ over the last week. Jason Kipnis (117 wRC+, .193 ISO) costs just $3.6K on DraftKings. Only one other team on the slate is more than one-tenth of a run above Cleveland’s 5.5 implied runs tonight.

Aaron Sanchez owns a 4.9 K-BB%, 6.16 ERA, 5.57 SIERA, 7.93 DRA, .360 xwOBA, 41.7% 95+ mph EV and career low 49 GB%. The Yankees own a 117 wRC+, 9.8 BB% and 19.6 HR/FB vs RHP. A 7.12 implied run line for the Yankees is one of the largest seen outside Coors and currently more than a full run above every other team outside that park tonight. The projected Yankee starting lineup does not offer a single batter below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year. Leadoff man DJ LeMahieu (110 wRC+, .156 ISO) is the only batter below a .178 ISO as well. Batters from either side of the plate own at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Sanchez over the last 12 months. There are likely no poor DFS choices in this lineup, though it can be argued someone like Brett Gardner (101 wRC+, .203 ISO) could be over-valued at $4.7K on DraftKings in the ninth spot. The Yankees should mash in this spot.