Adalberto Mejia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Only the Yankees top the Indians' 5.18 run line this afternoon on basically every slate available. RHBs have a .350 wOBA and 36.9 GB% against Adalberto Mejia for his career. Most simply, Francisco Lindor (157 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (148 wRC+, .248 ISO) have torched LHP almost as well as RHP over the last calendar year. Brandon Guyer (148 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Yan Gomes (137 wRC+, .255 ISO) are value options lower in the order, though you may have to worry about Guyer potentially being hit for. On the other side, while Carlos Carrasco is the clear top pitcher on this board, he does have an 89.3 mph aEV this season and LHBs have been about average against him since last season (.314 wOBA, .311 xwOBA). Don't sleep entirely on Eddie Rosario (151 wRC+, .288 ISO) or even Jorge Polanco (157 wRC+, .219 ISO) near the top of the order on a small slate.

Adalberto Mejia has enjoyed some success at AAA this seaon (15.8 K-BB%), but major league batters from either side of the plate are within three points of a .350 wOBA against him for his major league career. While the Blue Jays only have three batters above a 100 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year, they have six above a .190 wRC+ against them. Teoscar Hernandez (115 wRC+, .306 ISO) is the most dangerous bat in the lineup, but Randal Grichuk (70 wRC+, .191 ISO) has some upside in the leadoff spot for less than $4K. The Blue Jays have a 4.95 implied run line that's currently sixth on the board.

Players looking to have it all tonight probably want to stack Astros with either Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. One potential pathway to get there may be affordable RH Brewers. Minnesota is a positive run environment that plays a bit better than neutral for RH power. Batters from that side of the plate have a .339 wOBA and 32.7 Hard% against Adalberto Mejia in his career. Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton all have an ISO above .200 against LHPs this year and all except Broxton also have a wRC+ above 125. Additionally, all except Braun have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. None are above $4K on DraftKings with Aguilar and Broxton below $3K on FanDuel. Going deeper into this lineup, Hernan Perez and Manny Pina have not shown much power, but both have a wRC+ above 100 against LHP this year at similarly low price points. Orlando Arcia has a 166 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% over the last week. With several of those bats around or below $2.5K on FanDuel, players should be able to plug in Brewer bats around their Astros and still have enough for a premium pitcher left over.

The first inclination might be that the Yankees are going to make mince meat of Adalberto Mejia (4.43 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 8% Barrels/BBE), who has just a 16.7 K% over the last month, but the Yankees have just an 84 wRC+ vs LHP this year and have played a lot of baseball over the last few days. Beginning with a 16 inning affair on Saturday, they then played a day/night double-header on Sunday, including the late game on ESPN, after which they traveled to Minnesota. Catching all 16 innings on Saturday and then nine more last night, Gary Sanchez could be the player most negatively affected if he isn't given the night off tonight. Older Yankees like Matt Holliday, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury could show some wear as well. While this is in no way an endorsement of Mejia, who may need a lot more than some tired bats with his 11.1 BB%, this is at least a spot where some caution may need to be exercised. Though Aaron Judge was robbed of a HR last night, even he has a -25 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% now since the break.

Despite a poor offensive showing this year (82 wRC+ at home, 76 wRC+ vs RHP, 43 wRC+ last seven days), the Rockies have an implied run line (6.68) more than a run above any other offense at home tonight against the rookie Luis Castillo, who has shown an ability to miss bats through two starts (30.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%), but has also walked 8 of 46 batters. In all, six of 16 offenses are above five implied runs tonight. If looking to pay up for those Coors hitters though (maybe a nearly $6K Joey Votto on DraftKings), the Angels (4.83) may provide some cheaper complimentary bats against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .338 wOBA, 34.8 Hard%). Most Angels cost around the $3K mark on FanDuel, while only a couple (Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons) are a bit more costly on DraftKings. Yunel Escobar doesn't have much power, but has a 139 wRC+ against LHP since last season. Maybin (108 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) may be able to use his speed against a pitcher with control issues. Martin Maldonado (138 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP this season) may even be the catcher of choice on a small slate. Despite a 12 wRC+ over the last week, he has a 57.1 Hard%.

The Angels' offense arguably has the best pitching matchup today against Adalberto Mejia. Although we only have small sample size from him this season of 21.1 innings pitched and 95 total batters faced, the Twins' starter has the highest SIERA (5.01) and Contact% (83.0%). He also has a hitter-friendly 41.3% FB% and 12.6% BB% while his 20.0% K% this season is the second-lowest among starters going tonight. He's particularly struggled against RHB (87 total batters faced), who have a .381 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 43.9% FB% this season, although he has limited Hard% to 28.1%. The question is whether Los Angeles has enough firepower without Trout in the lineup. Among the projected starters, all but one guy will bat from the right side tonight and none of them have an ISO above .200 this year. In fact, five of them have ISOs of .085 or under. The three above that range are Jefry Marte (.194 ISO, .301 wOBA, 23.3% Hard%, 23.3% FB%), Martin Maldonado (.172 ISO, .488 wOBA, 37.5% Hard%), and Albert Pujols (.135 ISO, .263 wOBA, 30.0% Hard%, 33.3% FB%). In Maldonado's case, he currently has a .500 BABIP against LHP, indicating some of his numbers are a bit inflated. The Angels have the third-highest projected run total on the slate (4.38) - although, generally speaking, it isn't that high - and clearly have a favorable matchup. However, outside of the three guys mentioned above, it'll be hard to find strong targets to stack on this team and if the other six guys struggle, it would damage the value of Marte, Maldonado, and Pujols, none of whom have put up super strong numbers against LHP to begin with. Another thing to consider is Mejia's average start has lasted 4.2 innings this season and he's only made it past 5.0 once. The Twins bullpen ranks 15th in ISO (.166) and 17th in wOBA (.314) against RHB this year; while they're not strongest bullpen they're close to average.