Adalberto Mondesi Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Yusei Kikuchi’s season line isn’t completely terrible, as he has a 4.78 ERA, 4.89 xFIP and 4.93 SIERA with a 10% K-BB. However, over the last 30 days Kikuchi owns an ugly 7.71 ERA, 6.46 xFIP, and 6.00 SIERA with a 1.8% K-BB, 3.0 HR/9 and 42.1% hard contact rate. He’s also allowed a horrendous .417 xwOBA over the past 30 days. The Royals have some decent options tonight that can be had at affordable prices: Whit Merrifield (134 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018), Jorge Bonifacio (125 wRC+), Jorge Soler (124 wRC+), Nicky Lopez (108 wRC+, 33 PA), Cheslor Cuthbert (102 wRC+) and Adalberto Mondesi (99 wRC+) are all solid options tonight. Jorge Soler has been the Royals’ hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .443 xwOBA. Billy Hamilton (47 wRC+) is always a dart-throw GPP option given that he’s always a threat for a steal or two and comes at cheap prices across the industry. The Royals are an intriguing tournament stack given that they will likely see low-ownership and have decent upside without breaking the bank. They currently have a 4.25 implied line for tonight’s matchup.

A game in Kansas City between the Royals and White Sox is generally not likely to garner much attention, except that both teams are among the top third by implied run lines tonight with two of the more punishable pitchers on the mound tonight. Ivan Nova has struck out a total of 12 batters over his last five starts with a 5.4 SwStr%. His 92.5 Z-Contact% is worst on the board and though his estimators are generally about a run below his 6.24 ERA, his 9.51 DRA suggest better than a run per inning. Between Nova and Homer Bailey, we are looking at two of the six xwOBA marks on the board above .350 this season (three start min.). While Nova does it by simply not missing any bats anymore, Bailey can still miss bats at a league average rate (21.4 K%), but is otherwise a human launching pad. Batters have a 35.8 Hard-Soft% and board high 91.2 mph aEV against him when making contact. He hasn’t lasted even 20 batters in any of his last three starts or more than five innings in over a month. While both pitchers are better against RHBs over the last calendar year, neither drops below a .329 wOBA or xwOBA against batters from either side of the plate over that span. While the park in Kansas City suppresses power, it is a positive run environment. Yoan Moncada (116 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has a 191 wRC+ over the last week. Adalberto Mondesi (107 wRC+, .212 ISO) is experiencing a similar breakout on the side of this one, while Alex Gordon (116 wRC+, .202 ISO) has rejuvenated his career.

This is one instance where players should throw the negative west coast run environment right out the window. It’s Brad Keller (16.9 K%, 5.85 DRA, 5.51 SIERA, 90.6 mph aEV, .370 xwOBA) against Matt Harvey (15.7 K%, 6.42 DRA, 5.09 SIERA, 91 mph aEV, .379 xwOBA). While RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Keller over the last calendar year, that’s not nearly enough to preclude Mike Trout (200 wRC+, .328 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in this strong matchup, and LHBs are up to a .352 xwOBA against him over the same time span. Tommy La Stella (138 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (168 wRC+, .317 ISO) are strong plays in the top half of this projected lineup. Over the same 12 months, Harvey has been ripped by LHBs to the tune of a .343 wOBA and xwOBA with a 46% hard hit rate. Adalberto Mondesi (111 wRC+, .220 ISO), Alex Gordon (109 wRC+, .185 ISO) and rookie Nicky Lopez (243 wRC+, .377 xwOBA last seven days) can be featured from the Kansas City projected lineup. Lopez costs just $3.3 on DraftKings ($2.6K on FanDuel).

Early ownership projections (premium membership required) suggest Brad Peacock could be a popular secondary pitcher on DK tonight against the Royals at home and why not. It’s a negative run environment against a bad team. However, Brad Peacock has struggled this year more than you might think. His 90.6 Z-Contact% and 46.4 Z-O-Swing% are both near the bottom of the board. He somehow has a .283 xwOBA that’s 28 points below his actual, but a single digit SwStr% and 90.2 mph aEV make that a bit suspect. The Royals jumped all over another struggling Astro last night (Collin McHugh) with two grand slams and Peacock has been pretty bad against LHBs (.376 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% last calendar year). That should put both Adalberto Mondesi (117 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ryan O’Hearn (160 wRC+, .318 ISO) on the radar tonight. Both are above a 150 wRC+ over the last week as well. Alex Gordon (107 wRC+, .172 ISO) would also be reasonable on FanDuel ($3.6K), but costs nearly $5K on DraftKings. At just 3.5 implied runs, Kansas City bats are sure to be contrarian in a spot where they might be stronger than it appears.