Adam Conley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Seven teams on a full 15 game slate have an implied run line between 4.79 and 5.04 currently. Half a run above them are the Twins at 5.5 and half a run above them, topping the board, are the Diamondbacks at 5.94 runs, hosting Adam Conley tonight He has a 46.1 Hard% over the last month. RHBs have a .362 wOBA with five HRs, a 31 GB% and 47.2 Hard%. Pitching is not that expensive tonight, so everyone will likely be paying up for J.D. Martinez (229 wRC+, .500 ISO, 54.7 Hard%, 45.3 FB% vs LHP). Paul Goldschmidt (137 wRC+, .262 ISO, 50 Hard% vs LHP) will also be highly coveted, but has just a 42 wRC+ over the last week. A.J. Pollock (118 wRC+, .269 ISO) and Chris Iannetta (135 wRC+, .203 ISO) have been the other big bats against southpaws this year, the former with a 276 wRC+, 50 Hard% and three HRs over the last week. Brian Dozier (163 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP) may be the second best bat on the slate. Daniel Norris makes his first major league start in months. He's been pitching out of the pen in September, striking out just four of 32 batters faced. RHBs have a 40.1 GB% and 42.9 Hard% against him this year. While Norris is unlikely to make it deep into this game, the Detroit bullpen is nothing to fear, although the Twins probably won't be holding platoon advantages afterward. Only three additional Twins have a wRC+ above 100 vs LHP (Byron Buxton, Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman), none above 115. Of those three, only Buxton (.149) has an ISO even above .100 against left-handers this year, though several less potent Minnesota bats may make for reasonable salary savors if needed in a strong matchup tonight.

The Marlins and Giants are the only significant run line mover on tonight's slate over the course of the afternoon. They are up over a quarter of a run, from 4.62 implied runs earlier this afternoon to 4.9 runs currently. Their opponent, San Francisco, is up nearly as much, going from 3.88 runs to 4.1 runs too. The pitching matchup for this game is Adam Conley (16.4 K%, 5.13 SIERA) vs Ty Blach (11.8 K%, 5.08 SIERA). It's no doubt these pitchers can be scored upon, but the prowess of the two offenses are in question. While there are four players across both lineups with both a wRC+ above 140 and ISO above .250 against LHP this season, three of them (J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey, and Nick Hundley) are all Catcher eligible. The exception, of course, is Giancarlo Stanton, who has homered in nine of his last 10 games and is the only one of the four with a wRC+ above 100 or hard hit rate above 30% over the last week. Players can see run lines and track movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.

Without a Coors game on the slate, no team has an implied run total above six tonight, though seven are above five runs and two (Rangers & Dodgers) separate themselves nearly half a run above the rest of the pack. The Rangers are park infused in one of the top run environments in play today against a pitcher who has been erratic, but not necessarily always bad and with occasional reverse splits in Adam Conley. Texas has just an 81 wRC+ and 25.7 K% vs LHP. The Dodgers, on the other hand, should punish Bartolo Colon. LHBs have a .348 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% against him since last year. On the lower half of the board, the New York Mets have an implied run line of just 4.17. Clayton Richard's ground ball rate dips to a reasonable 55.7% against RHBs since last season with a .374 wOBA. This year, it's .390 with all 16 of his HRs allowed. Since 5/27 (eight starts), RHBs have a .436 wOBA (eight HRs), just a 12.5 K% and 43.2 Hard%. While Yoenis Cespedes (167 wRC+, .306 ISO vs LHP since last season) is an obvious choice, even in a down year, and Wilmer Flores (159 wRC+, .308 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is a known lefty masher by this point, the surprise may be Jose Reyes (159 wRC+, .283 ISO vs LHP since 2016), who has a 132 wRC+ in the second half of the season. Travis D'arnaud has smashed LHP too this year (203 wRC+, .349 ISO) and costs around $3K on either site.

We shouldn’t expect much out of Adam Conley in his first start since mid-August, and it’s going to be tough for anyone on the Miami pitching staff to do much today. Conley has some extreme and unusual splits. He is a low strikeout pitcher against left-handed batters (13.0%), relying on ground balls (49.0%) and soft contact (23.3% Hard%). Against right-handed batters, his strikeouts jump up to 24.0%, but he allows fly balls (44.5%) and hard hits (35.0%). This puts the Mets right-handed power as the top targets, beginning with Yoenis Cespedes (192 wRC+, .455 wOBA, .293 ISO vs LHP). The red-hot Asdrubal Cabrera (.349 wOBA, 40% hard hits vs LHP) and Jose Reyes (219 wRC+, .494 wOBA, .375 ISO vs LHP) are in play in all formats batting at the top of the order.

Adam Conley has not been sharp over the last couple of weeks, with a fly ball percentage of 43% and a hard contact percentage of 37% leading to an xFIP of 7.46. The majority of the production Conley has given up has been to RHB, considering he has a fly ball percentage of 45% and a hard contact percentage of 35% versus RHB that has led to 1.10 HR/9 allowed to RHBs.Over the last week, Jose Abreu has been putting the ball in play often, only striking out 11% of the time, leading to a ridiculous wRC+ of 219.

Adam Conley has a 1.82 ERA in July partially due to a 5.1 HR/FB, but mostly because of an 87.7 LOB%. The good news is his walk rate dropped to 7.2% last month, but his strikeout rate declined to 21.6% too with a hard contact rate of 38.4%. The Cubs are one of the best offenses against LHP (114 wRC+, 10.2 BB%) with a skill set that can give a pitcher with control problems a lot of issues. While Zobrist's absence is a bit of a blow, Javier Baez (176 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP since 2015) gains some value in the cleanup spot for less than $4K on either site. Kris Bryant (170 wRC+, .322 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top overall bat in this lineup and one of the biggest overall tonight, though RHBs have just a .303 wOBA against Conley in his career. LHBs have a higher .326 wOBA, but just a 21.4 Hard%.

Pham has been slightly better than average versus lefties, possessing a wRC+ of 111 against LHP, dating back to the beginning of last year. His 32% strike out percentage is a little disconcerting, but his lineup position and respectable 0.158 ISO vs LHPs makes him a viable play versus Adam Conley today.

John Gant has struggled in his short major league career, especially against LH bats (to the tune of a .359 wOBA). The struggling Giancarlo Stanton gets the day off for the Marlins but the LH bats of Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich are all in play. Ichiro Suzuki is as well, although he's very unlikely to put up a huge day for you - but he is a safe option batting lead off. Adam Conley is in line for a win and has a projected runs allowed of under 3.5 which is always a good indicator in terms of targeting SP. That said, he has allowed a wOBA of over .300 to both sides of the plate. One thing we can be certain of is that he won't allow a HR to a LH hitter as he has yet to do so in his short career (which of course now means Freddie Freeman will hit three today). With many other pitching options out there on this large afternoon slate, there are better places to go, especially on one SP sites. He does make some sense on a two SP site like DraftKings though. Jeff Francoeur is worth a look batting clean up for the Braves as Conley has struggled some against RH power hitters in the past.

Adam Conley faces the worst offense both at home (65 wRC+) and vs LHP (58 wRC+) today, but has been incredibly inconsistent. He's allowed one run or less in four of his starts with a 27:7 K:BB ratio, but has allowed at least three runs five times, striking out more than he's walked just twice in those starts. Three of them have been against Washington though, including seven walks last time out, so maybe it's just one team that gives him great difficulty. None of this takes him out of play against an incredibly weak lineup that there is no interest in, but the Braves don't have the lowest run projection on the board and barely sit inside the bottom five (3.5). His inconsistency is something to consider when paying $7.5K to $8K tonight.

Adam Conley has interesting splits dating back to the beginning of last year. Conley has surrendered 9 of his 10 career homeruns-allowed to RHBs, but his career wOBA allowed to LHB is 0.378, considerably higher than his wOBA versus RHB of 0.294. Since Conley is only striking out LHBs 16.7% of the time, targeting players like Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy may be clever way to get lower owned players in a good position to succeed.