Adam Morgan Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Adam Morgan struck out eight of 22 Mets in his last start and has now had a double digit SwStr% in four of his last five starts. His main concern and a very legitimate one is a 34.6 Hard% and 0.99 GB/FB in a power friendly park. He’s allowed 22 HRs in just 108 innings. He’s facing an Atlanta team with probably more power than their 7.3 HR/FB at home and 7.2 HR/FB vs LHP with the addition of Matt Kemp, but certainly still a well below average offense in terms of power in a park that suppresses it. This makes it a matchup that uniquely suits Morgan’s skillset as it may be able to hide his weaknesses and the Braves do strike out 21% of the time vs LHP. Without a lot of confidence in the top of the board tonight, players might consider dropping way down in price for a matchup that's a good fit for this pitcher. Alternatively, the middle of this order has hit LHP well. Matt Kemp (141 wRC+, .291 ISO vs LHP this season) costs just $3.3K on FanDuel. Tyler Flowers (110 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP this season) has a 183 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% over the last week and makes for a decent value play at a tough position for less than $3.5K on either site, batting fifth. Freddie Freeman (142 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP this season) has been impressive against pitchers from both sides and is red hot (297 wRC+ last seven days), but costs quite a bit against a pitcher who has handled LHBs well (.293 wOBA, 21.9 Hard%).

Adam Morgan has had some decent results over his last four starts (2.35 ERA), including a 13.5 K-BB% and 47.1 GB% with a 28.6 Hard%, though his estimators are a bit higher due to a .250 BABIP and 4.8 HR/FB. For the season, he’s generated as many fly balls as ground balls with a 34.7 Hard%, which is just asking for trouble in Philadelphia, but he gets a park upgrade in Citi Field tonight (though it's been more neutral towards power in recent seasons). He’s looked interesting over short spans before, but eventually reverted, so the lean is towards siding with a Mets offense that has hit him well and is projected for 4.5 runs here. A top four Mets stack is a completely reasonable approach tonight. Though not expected to sustain, Jose Reyes has absolutely crushed LHP (including Morgan) this year (229 wRC+, .386 ISO) and costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Asdrubel Cabrera (123 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP this season) remains red hot (211 wRC+ over the last week), as does T.J. Rivera (194 wRC+ over the last week). Yoenis Cespedes (190 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat, but also the only really expensive one.

Adam Morgan has been missing bats at a league average rate and generally pitching decently over the last month (3.64 ERA, 3.84 xFIP). At first glance, it doesn't appear a bad spot (Marlins 93 wRC+, 22.6 K%, 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP) at a low cost, but there are some issues with his batted ball profile (0.96 GB/FB, 35.8 Hard%) in a small park and the Marlins have gotten some of their power back in that lineup, including Giancarlo Stanton (169 wRC+, .390 ISO vs LHP since last season) batting second tonight. With RHBs owning a .368 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% against Morgan in his career, all RHBs in this lineup project for some value beyond their price tags in a park that's a boon to RH power. Marcell Ozuna (147 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Martin Prado (160 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP since 2015) have hit southpaws extremely well.

Adam Morgan has struck out 13 of his last 48 batters with just two walks, but three HRs. A 0.92 GB/FB and 35.9 Hard% are the issues at hand here, but he gets a park upgrade in Miami against an offense with little power (88 wRC+, 9.7 HR/FB at home) and a 22.3 K% vs LHP. With Ozuna joining Stanton on the sidelines (or bench), Jeff Francoeur (.144 ISO) and Martin Prado (.152 ISO) become the power against LHP in this lineup. Don't consider it an endorsement of Morgan as much as an indictment of the Marlins for a low cost. That said, there are a couple of bats worth a look here. RHBs have a .377 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% against Morgan in his career. This lowly lineup is still projected for 4.6 runs. Martin Prado still has a 202 wRC+ vs LHP despite the limited power this year and a 52.6 Hard% over the last week. He may be one of the top values at 3B on FanDuel ($3.1K). Destin Hood immediately becomes viable as a RHB in the second spot for $2.6K on either site without even having to know anything else about him (there's not really anything interesting to know).

Adam Morgan is a fly ball pitcher in a hitters park, and that has resulted in expected home run issues to right-handed batters (20.9% HR/FB). He has good control, but with a 17.4% strikeout rate and 40.8% fly ball rate to right-handed batters, there's an above-average chance of some baseballs finding the outfield seats. Jayson Werth is the clear top play from the Nationals with his 46.4% hard hit rate and .280 ISO against left-handed pitching. Wilson Ramos (152 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .311 ISO) has also shown big power to go along with his elite contact against lefties. Anthony Rendon (133 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .157 ISO vs LHP) and Ryan Zimmerman (.232 ISO vs LHP) could causeproblems for Morgan as well. Basically, this entire Nationals lineup is in play for tournament stacks.

The normally predominantly LH Mets are a little bit healthier and now a little bit more RH coming into a matchup against a pitcher that RHBs have a .373 wOBA and 35.7 Hard% against in his career. There are several reasonably priced Mets bets in a great spot here with Yoenis Cespedes (190 wRC+, .319 ISO vs LHP this season) not being one of them, but projecting as one of the top overall bats. Wilmer Flores (173 wRC+, .311 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is a $2.5K lefty masher on FanDuel, while Justin Ruggiano (175 wRC+, .303 ISO vs LHP since 2015) plays that role on DraftKings for $2.9K. Asdrubal Cabrera (121 wRC+, .121 ISO vs LHP) has not hit for much power against southpaws, but is a top value SS in the second spot of potentially potent lineup tonight with a 146 wRC+ and 47.4 Hard% since returning from the DL.

Morgan (4.48 SIERA) may not be be as bad as his 6.62 ERA and 37.0% hard contact rate allowed would indicate, but he is still not very good. Morgan has some massive struggles against right-handed batters, as they have a .403 wOBA to go along with a 38.9% hard contact rate. He also surrenders more fly balls (41.8%) to right-handed batters and has a much more difficult time getting them out with any sort of consistency. This great news for the upside of Cardinals righties like Stephen Piscotty (168 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .280 ISO vs LHP), Tommy Pham (117 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .298 ISO vs LHP), Yadier Molina, and Jhonny Peralta. Even though he sacrifices the platoon advantage, Matt Carpenter (129 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .174 ISO vs LHP) remains in consideration due to his ability to hit left-handed pitching and he is simply a better hitter than Morgan is a pitcher.

Adam Morgan brings his 0.87 GB/FB and 15.7 HR/FB to Colorado tonight. The Rockies are, unsurprisingly tonight's top projected offense (7.17 runs). RHBs have a .366 wOBA (35.7 Hard%) against him in his career, LHBs a lesser .317 wOBA (23.9 Hard%). Lefty-masher Ryan Raburn is not in the lineup tonight, but all four RHBs with an above average wRC+ vs LHP this year are high on our target board tonight. DJ LeMahieu (132 wRC+, .219 ISO) has actually been one of Colorado's top two bats vs LHP this year along with Nolan Arenado (136 wRC+, .268 ISO). Trevor Story (102 wRC+, .218 ISO) is one of very few rosterable SS bats tonight. Nick Hundley (119 wRC+, .282 ISO) is likely the top value at Catcher for less than $4K on either site. There really are no unusable bats here, though Mark Reynolds has just a 63 wRC+ and .050 ISO vs LHP this season.

Adam Morgan (4.30 SIERA, 18.9% K%, 5.5% BB%) admittedly hasn't pitched as poorly as his 6.49 ERA might reflect. While Morgan could actually make for a risky SP tournament flier against the weak Minnesota Twins offense (89 wRC+, 24.4% K% vs LHP), the preferred route would be to target a few Twins batters with HR upside to take advantage of Morgan and his 42.2% FB% and 38.4% Hard% allowed. The top option for the Twins is Robbie Grossman (186 wRC+, .446 wOBA, .282 ISO vs LHP) batting third and priced at only $3.5K on DraftKings. The other Twins bats to consider are Brian Dozier (170 wRC+, .424 wOBA, .244 ISO vs LHP) and Eduardo Nunez (169 wRC+, .422 wOBA, .333 ISO vs LHP) as they provide the HR and steal upside needed in cash and especially tournaments.

Adam Morgan does have a 10.6 SwStr%, but it hasn't translated to as many strikeouts as he had in AAA this year (20 of 75 batters) with just a 15.0 K% this season and even worse over the last month. He doesn't walk a lot of batters (6.3 BB%), which is good when facing the patient Cubs, but he does allow a lot of hard contact in the air (36.3 Hard%, 0.9 GB/FB), which is going to be a problem in this park against this lineup, even minus Ben Zobrist. One issue that might keep the ownership numbers of this lineup at bay is their high cost. Fowler, Bryant, and Rizzo all cost $3.9K or more on FD and at least $5K on DraftKings. They all hit LH pitching at a well above average rate with power (Fowler's .155 ISO vs LHP since 2015 is the lowest of the three). Without many high priced arms though, players may lean towards higher exposure to these bats and opt for cheaper pitchers with some upside, of which there are a few tonight. The most interesting bat in this lineup might Javier Baez (219 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP since 2015). With Morgan's low strikeout rate potentially increasing Baez's upside, he has the potential to generate value far beyond his price tag ($3.5K on DK, $2.6K on FD). Players should get as much exposure to this lineup as they can afford with even David Ross pounding LHPs this year (208 wRC+, .292 ISO) in a limited sample, but a low cost. Bryant (103 mph aEV in 4 batted balls), Soler, and Ross have all homered against Morgan in just a combined 12 PAs.