Adam Plutko Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Adam Plutko is a contact prone (14.2 K%), extreme fly ball pitcher (29.8 GB%), which is not a terrible thing to be at Citi Field as a decent contact manager (29.7% 95+ mph EV), but a warm, humid night with winds blowing out to center between 10-15 mph tonight, makes this a much more dangerous spot. With his fly ball lean, batters from either side of the plate are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last 12 months. Three Met bats have been very strong hitters with power against RHP over the last calendar year. Pete Alonso (150 wRC+, .313 ISO), Michael Conforto (144 wRC+, .282 ISO) and J.D. Davis (130 wRC+, .198 ISO) are the bats to own here, while Amed Rosario (93 wRC+, .134 ISO) has been red hot out of the leadoff spot as well (264 wRC+, 52 Hard% last seven days). The Mets find themselves in the middle of the board tonight at 5.16 implied runs.

Adam Plutko has excellent control (3.1 BB%) and probably should have a few more strikeouts (1.73 K/SwStr, 9.1 SwStr%), but has the highest Z-O-Swing% on the board (42.8%) and an unsustainable .229 BABIP. A 31 GB% plays a big part in generating 8.2% Barrels/BBE despite just 30.4% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. A .305 xwOBA is still 30 points better than his actual mark though. To sum, Statcast suggests a decent contact manager (despite 14 HRs in 48.2 innings) with great control who should get a few more strikeouts if he can get batters to chase out of the zone occasionally. He’s allowed two runs in 11 innings to the Royals this season, striking out seven. Kansas City has very little power (11.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a power suppressing park, which should give Plukto the boost he needs to generate some value at a cost around $7K tonight on a slate with very little middle of the board pitching.

Jose Suarez is another mid-range option that should get a lot of play tonight, simply because he’s facing the Orioles (86 wRC+, 20.4 K-BB%, 10.6 Hard-Soft% vs LHP). He has a 25.2 K% through seven starts, but has failed to complete five innings or go beyond 20 batters in any of his last three in July. While his 86 mph aEV is tied for best on the board, a 28.3 GB% has still resulted in 8.6% Barrels/BBE.

The Red Sox are the unquestioned top offense on the early slate with a 5.64 implied run line that's a full run above the only other team above 4.4 runs this afternoon. Fenway is the most positive run environment on the slate by far. Adam Plutko has shown a massive platoon split in 48.2 major league innings. LHBs (.434 wOBA, 42.5 Hard%) are 190 points above RHBS by wOBA and 10 points by hard hit rate. Batters from either side are below a 30 GB%. While that doesn't remove J.D. Martinez (198 wRC+, .395 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) or Mookie Betts (153 wRC+, .258 ISO) as elite bats on this board, it does add Andrew Benintendi (132 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (114 wRC+, .252 ISO) to their class. Xander Bogaerts (128 wRC+, .238 ISO) has a 272 wRC+ over the last seven days. The question is about affordability. If stacking this Boston lineup, then Madison Bumgarner and/or Matt Body are likely the only reasonable pitchers you'll be able to afford.

The White Sox do not offer an imposing lineup, including three guys with limited or no major league experience beyond the first four in the lineup (28 year-old Matt Skole makes his major league debut batting fifth). They have just a 3.98 implied run line against Adam Plutko, but some competent bats in the top half of the lineup. Plutko has allowed just three runs in 13.1 innings, but six extra-base hits in his first start and four walks in his second without much in his minor league numbers to suggest a breakout at age 26. In his two starts, 22 left-handed batters have a .415 wOBA (.443 xwOBA) with a 52.9 Hard%. He hasn't had a ground ball rate above 35% since his days in the low minors in 2014. A top four Chicago stack of Yoan Moncada (135 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yolmer Sanchez (115 wRC+, .175 ISO), Jose Abreu (139 wRC+, .242 ISO) and Daniel Palka (112 wRC+, .288 ISO) could pay dividends.

Adam Plutko was called a "fringe relief arm" in Fangraphs' pre-season assessment of the Cleveland organization. The 26 year-old has thrown over 250 innings at AAA with a below average strikeout rate the last few years. He pitched 7.1 innings with six strikeouts against the Blue Jays in his first career start, allowing three doubles to left-handed hitters plus three solo home runs. Left-handed batters made hard contact on 75% of batted balls in that start. Ian Happ (117 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Kyle Schwarber (137 wRC+, .316 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+, .217 ISO) look great in the top half of this lineup, especially.