Adeiny Hechavarria Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Mike Montgomery has walked six with as many strikeouts over his last 14 innings (12 ERs). He has allowed the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph EV (45%) and has the second highest xwOBA on the board (.388). Batters from either side of the plate have tattooed him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .350. An Atlanta lineup likely lacking Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman tonight is still above five implied runs (5.28) and contains several bats who hammer LHP. Injuries may give Adam Duvall (198 wRC+, .424 ISO), Austin Riley (138 wRC+, .403 ISO) or Adeiny Hechavarria (123 wRC+, .304 ISO) a chance to move up the lineup. All are small sample sizes, but all are also below $2.5K on FanDuel. Josh Donaldson (124 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (189 wRC+, .306 ISO) are your more established bats, who will most certainly bat towards the top of the lineup.

22 year old Logan Webb has had a bit of a rough time since being called up as he’s posted a 6.51 ERA over 27 and 2/3 innings. He does have a 4.01 xFIP and 4.61 SIERA and a not-terrible 10.9% K-BB that indicates the ERA is likely a bit inflated. Though he also has a .353 xwOBA allowed (and a .379 xwOBA over the past 30 days) so he isn’t fooling too many batters either. The Braves are missing a few of their best hitters but still have a solid 5.50 implied total and their lineup has some nice value plays as well. Freddie Freeman (.419 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Joyce (.370), Nick Markakis (.370), Dansby Swanson (.340), Tyler Flowers (.308), Adeiny Hechavarria (.294) and Austin Riley (.285) are all in play. Freeman, Joyce and Markakis all have a xwOBA over .400 over the past 2 weeks. Swanson and Hechavarria are batting 1-2 in the order and are both $4k or less on Draftkings and $2.7k or less on Fanduel. Markakis, Joyce and Flowers are all below $3.9k on Draftkings and $2.9k on Fanduel. Billy Hamilton is also an option for GPPs, as he has stolen base upside and is near minimum price on both sites.

The Mets will face Merrill Kelly in Chase Field and are an intriguing stack option on the afternoon slate. Kelly has been pretty bad this year with a 4.83 ERA / 5.03 xFIP / 5.14 SIERA and17.1% K rate with an 8.8% BB rate, and he’s shown no signs of improvement with a 5.52 xFIP, 5.71 SIERA, 14% K rate and 8% BB rate over the past 30 days. Kelly also has an ugly .373 xwOBA allowed on the year with an aEV of 89.2 MPH. Michael Conforto (.427 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Pete Alonso (.376), Dominic Smith (.362), Amed Rosario (.308) and Wilson Ramos (.300) are all solid options in the Mets’ lineup. Ramos has struggled a bit this year but owns a 111 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018. Dominic Smith has been the Mets’ hottest hitter with a .435 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Adeiny Hechavarria at .377. Mets’ batters will also have a very hitter-friendly umpire working in their favor with Sam Holbrook behind the plate. They currently have a 4.50 implied line vs. Kelly and the D-Backs Sunday afternoon.

The Tampa Bay Rays do not list a lineup that screams daily fantasy goodness, yet are still implied for 4.55 runs (third highest on tonight's board). The reason for this is that Martin Perez can get daily fantasy players excited. Consider that he's missed four bats in two starts and has not generated a single swing and miss within the strike zone. RHBs have a .372 xwOBA since last season with an xwOBA 11 points higher. This should play well even in a negative run scoring environment in Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, we can't find a single RHB in the Tampa Bay lineup (of which there are eight) with a wRC+ above 87 over the last week (10 PA min.) with Carlos Gomez (41.2 Hard%) the only one above a 25% hard hit rate. Similarly, cleanup hitter C.J. Cron (106 wRC+, .255 ISO, 41.2 Hard%, 50 FB%) is the only one above a 95 wRC+ or .170 ISO vs LHP since last season (30 PA min.). Perhaps more importantly though, not a single bat costs more than $3.7K on DraftKings or even $3K on FanDuel. Adeiny Hechavarria (88 wRC+, .168 ISO) might not be the worst SS punt play in the second hole at a very cheap cost (minimum on FD). In fact, the Tampa Bay lineup has four batters at the minimum price tag on FanDuel and only three above $3K on DraftKings. A reasonable approach might be to fill out lineups optimally and then come back to the Rays for spots in need of some salary savings.

J.D. Martinez (327 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, five HRs) and Rhys Hoskins (320 wRC+, 53.3 Hard%, six HRs) are the hottest bats in the majors over the last week (10 PA min.). They are one/two via wRC+ and HRs over that span. Both have been residents near this end of the board for the last month and a half or so. Hoskins certainly has the better matchup at home against Daniel Mengden (RHBs .358 wOBA career), Martinez is certainly almost never a bad play at this point. Jeff Samardzija has been tough on RHBs at home though, allowing just two of his 28 HRs with a 23.6 K-BB% and -2.0 Hard-Soft% this year in that situation. Lane Adams (315 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) is also above a 300 wRC+ over the last week in 15 PAs, striking out just once. Adeiny Hechavarria (159 wRC+, 86.7 Hard%, one HR) has apparently made hard contact at a higher rate than any other batter over the last week, which may be difficult to accept. Believe it or not, he has a healthy 110 wRC+ and .194 ISO vs LHP this year. Chris Sale has allowed multiple HRs five of his last 15 starts. Convincing enough?

Unlikely. Clint Frazier (69 wRC+, 83.3 Hard%, no HRs) is the only other batter above 70% and just hits the 10 PA cutoff. The obvious issue is that he's either struck out or walk in four of those opportunities.

Steven Matz has stopped using his slider over the last month, likey due to the discomfort it causes with the bone spurs in his elbow. While this has led to harder contact (35.2%) and a reduced GB rate (48.2%) in June with four HRs over his last three starts, he's still throwing just as hard and has an increased 11.3 SwStr% over the last 30 days. While this makes him a higher risk, the upside is still there and the Marlins having only one LH batter in the lineup may not even mean much (.290 wOBA allowed to RHBs career). Tonight's leadoff hitter, Adeiny Hechavarria has just a 49 wRC+ vs LHP this season, but costs just $2.1K on FanDuel. The other value here would be lefty masher Marcell Ozuna (215 wRC+, .406 ISO vs LHP), who has just a 52 wRC+ over the last week, but costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Giancarlo Stanton (161 wRC+. 414 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the other major power threat here, but is less of a bargain.

Patrick Corbin has a 21.9 Hard% and 19.4 HR/FB this season with a below average strikeout rate. The Marlins have a 16.1 K-BB% and are built around just a couple of monster RHBs against lefties this season and one of them can no longer make contact. For just $5.5K on DraftKings with a near league average 8.8 SwStr%, Corbin could be considered as a punt SP#2 on DraftKings if players need to venture down that far. Adeiny Hechavarria (39 wRC+, .091 ISO vs LHP in 2016) hits leadoff tonight and is a salary saving SS option on FanDuel for $2.2K, but may not provide much excess value for $3.9K on DK. Marcell Ozuna (254 wRC+, .432 ISO vs LHP this year) is a bat to build around tonight. He costs less than $5K on DraftKings, $3.5K on FanDuel. Martin Prado (133 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) is a very playable bat here, while Giancarlo Stanton still has great numbers against LHP since 2015 (171 wRC+, .426 ISO vs LHP), but has just a 118 wRC+ and .257 ISO against them this year. Still very good, but potentially not worth nearly $5K on DraftKings. JT Realmuto is the one RH bat OUT of the lineup tonight that some might have been considering here.