Adrian Houser Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If double header pitching probables hold true, Tuesday night’s entire slate, whether it be eight games on FanDuel or 10 games on DraftKings, includes just a single $10K pitcher in Logan Gilbert. He struck out a season high nine Phillies last time out, but also allowed a season high four runs over just five innings. A 10.0 SwStr%, 9.2 BB% and 90.5 mph EV suggest he hasn’t been as good as last season, despite the 2.13 ERA, though his numbers are hardly bad with estimators ranging from a 3.10 FIP to a 3.55 xERA. Interestingly, you won’t find Gilbert anywhere near the top of today’s PlateIQ projections, at least early on, as projections are fluid throughout the day. You might think it’s the matchup and Toronto is certainly a park downgrade, but still a mere neutral run environment, while the Blue Jays have just a 100 wRC+ with a 23.2 K% vs RHP. Gilbert could be under-valued and severely under-owned should current projections hold true.

There are several pitchers who exceed $9K on both sites, but Adrian Houser isn’t even generating ground balls anymore (45.7%) to go along with a 7.5 K-BB%. Nobody should be paying in excess of $9K for him against the Braves. Jameson Taillon is actually tonight’s top projected pitcher in terms of raw overall point total which says a lot more about the slate and the matchup (Baltimore is pitcher friendly now, while the O’s have a 98 wRC+ and 22.9 K% vs RHP) than his own performance. With just four strikeouts in four straight starts, Taillon has seen his K-rate drop to 19.4%, but because he’s only walked three batters this year with nearly as many infield flies (six) as barrels (seven), his 2.93 xERA is a perfect match for his actual ERA. Additional non-FIP estimators (7.9 HR/FB) are a little more than half a run higher. On a more standard slate, Taillon would likely be merely a middle of the board arm.

Nathan Eovaldi’s 21.5 K-BB% is actually a slight improvement from last year, but suddenly, his contact profile is a mess (12.4% Barrels/BBE). The average exit velocity is up 2.7 mph and his Barrels/BBE have nearly doubled (6.3% to 12.4%). In just seven starts, Eovaldi is already 60% of the way to his home run total allowed from last season (32 starts). As one might imagine, contact neutral estimators are all below his 3.15 ERA (but above three), while ones that include the contact profile (FIP, xERA) are above four. He has to face the Astros (123 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP) at Fenway and is projected outside the top five on either site.

Lastly, Merrill Kelly costs $9.4K on DK in Game 2 of the doubleheader between the D’Backs and Dodgers (120 wRC+, 21.1 K% vs RHP). He did break a string of four straight quality starts last time out, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his seven starts and only more than one twice. While the 15.9 K-BB% is fine with nothing concerning in his contact profile, non-FIP estimators are all about a run and a half or more above his 1.71 ERA. Just one of his nine barrels (7.5%) has left the yard, while he’s stranding 85.8% of runners. Still, this is not a pitcher we’re interested in paying more than $9K for against the Dodgers. Projections are not yet available for double-header Game 2 starters, but it’s unlikely they’ll say otherwise.

Adrian Houser generates lots of weak (86.3 mph EV) ground balls (61.4%), but with just a 9.3 K-BB%. That generates a 4.58 xERA via Statcast, which is in line with all of his other estimators (all below five), which also all well below his 5.40 ERA. Houser has allowed a .329 BABIP and 23.1 HR/FB, stranding just 62.5% of his runners. None of it makes much sense. He’s allowed just eight Barrels on the year and has a 20.7 LD%. He hasn’t been good, but he may be much closer to average than actual results give him credit for. The Royals have just an 89 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% vs RHP. Houser has a large split since last season (over 100 points by wOBA and 70 points by ISO), something the Royals have no ability to take any advantage of as their only decent hitters are RH. There are no LH batters in tonight’s lineup above a .322 wOBA or .173 ISO against RHP since last season and there are only four total. Houser doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside, but this is a matchup that caters to his strengths at a price tag on FanDuel ($5.7K) that will allow players to roster high end Dodger bats at Coors.

Adrian Houser has a 64.6 GB% and 86.3 GB% that’s great from a real life perspective, but his 9.5 K-BB% generally does little for daily fantasy purposes. While six of his 15 fly balls have left the yard, which includes every Barrel he’s allowed this year, only his 3.75 xFIP is well below his 4.36 ERA. In fact, his 4.37 xERA from Statcast matches it perfectly. The Tigers do offer him a bit more upside in this spot though. They have a 21 K-BB% vs RHP this year and Jacoby Jones (broken hand) may have been their best hitter. The projected lineup for Detroit doesn’t contain a single batter above a .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and only one with more than 25 PAs above a .301 wOBA. Houser is a reasonable option to keep the ball on the ground and prevent runs if players are looking to go cheap with their pitching needs tonight ($6K FanDuel).

$5K for a guy with strikeout upside against a right-handed heavy lineup? Sign me up. Houser has been stretched out after working on a fairly strict pitch count earlier in the summer, but DraftKings hasn't quite caught up to his emergence. He's thrown no fewer than 89 pitches in his last four outings and has averaged north of a strikeout per inning in the month of August. He's also been more dominant against RHBs with a 2.94 xFIP, although his strikeout rate is actually a shade higher against lefties. Houser owns a 66.7% GB rate against right-handers which plays a large role in him allowing just a 0.94 HR/9 rate against RHBs. He's a viable target in any format Tuesday night.